Rassmussen's latest poll has Obama winning African Americans by 60 points (80-20).  This is a big SWING to MCCAIN over Rassmussen's last poll, where Obama led amongst African-Americans by 88 points (93-5).  But yeah, Obama doesn't NEED PA to win, but he'll win it anyway.

Recent polls in PA merely show that it has leveled out at the national average, which is a 3 to 5 point Obama lead.

I don't know whether to feel comforted or freaked out, Mike, you sound even more twitchy than I am.

If it's Saturday, it must be "Meet the Crouch", with Michael Crowley.

Morning call out tody has Obama at +8. At this point in 04, Kerry was only up 4 points in PA.

I say this with hubris in mind, but if Obama is going elsewhere during these next few days, then he must have a sense that PA is for him. Nothing so far suggests that he is not a careful campaigner. I fear that all this socialism stuff is gaining traction, but he has a margin of error to work with in PA, and one hopes that he and Axelrod and Plouffe know what they're doing. Frankly, this fretting over PA is driving me insane. He has to hold this state, so I have to think that the Obama campaign knows this and is acting accordingly. They've been great strategists all along. I certainly wouldn't want to bet the farm on North Dakota and Montana.

Nationally, today marks the largest margin of Obama in Gallup's likely voter list to date:

www.gallup.com/.../Gallup-Daily-Obama-52-McCain-42-Among-Likely-Voters.aspx

One thing not to worry about is complacency in PA. I just back from canvassing and my local headquarters (one of five or six in the least populated of the Philly 'ring' counties) was totally overrun with volunteers. It was tough getting in the door to get my canvassing materials and it was waaaaay tougher around noon when I went to return them. Wall to wall volunteers. I suspect if Obama loses PA its because of a massive national shift and he's screwed and I think that's pretty unlikely. But I guarantee it won't be for a lack of boots on the ground.

What if McCain wins PA?

What if McCain wins MA?

What if McCain wins MI?

What if McCain wins NM?

Four down, 46 more to go!

Please. Obama is not going to lose any states in the Northeast. Pennsylvania is not going to go majority-McCain. Let us not forget that Senator Stentorius himself bagged Pa. in 2004's far warmer economic climate, notwithstanding his zero demonstrable ability to connect with ordinary folk.

It's over. STRUCTURALLY. There are simply not enough voters willing to give the GOP a listen, north of Virginia or east of Ohio, to make this happen. To show that I am not biased, the cake is equally baked against Obama in Oklahoma, Kansas, Wyoming, Nebraska, and other places i'm sure my gay ass would be lynched were I to pay a visit.

No mandate and no new electoral map? Not one my let-down list. A win before midnight EST would be great and a win before dawn is good enough. I'll let Fox spin what a win is not...and I hope they have the next four years to chew on it.

Has anyone seen Gov. Palin in Florida today?  She says that McCain is going to cut spending down enough to balance the budget and not leave the national debt to our descendants.  But, she said, we're going do everything we need and keep all of the essential programs.  Wow, I'd like a copy of Sarah Palin's "U.S. Government on Ten dollars a day."

mcorey.geo: Your gay ass wouldn't be lynched in Indiana but we'll be the last state of the antebellum Union to go with Obama. We've made up double-digits over the summer and are too close to call (Bush won by 20 in '04) but the winning point seems tough to get. While a few no-name polls have show Barack ahead, a win here (an early posting) would mean it's over. A win in Indiana would be the worst news McCain could get before 8P EST & he's not celebrating yet. Yeah, the worry index is higher on the other side.

>Has anyone seen Gov. Palin in Florida today?  She says that McCain is going to cut spending down enough to balance the budget and not leave the national debt to our descendants.  But, she said, we're going do everything we need and keep all of the essential programs.  Wow, I'd like a copy of Sarah Palin's "U.S. Government on Ten dollars a day." <

It they do win and the Dems still control Congress; the first budget should contain not one cent for Alaska.  Enough of this redistributionism.

Amen stanmvp48.  Alaska is like the other Red states, only on steroids. They complain about Government and Washington, and taxes and spending, but take in far more than they send to D.C.  The sucker blue states, where the productive, creative,  high earning (thus higher taxed) real hard working Americans live, send far more to Washington then they receive back.  

PA is no lock for Obama -- there are plenty of demographics favorable to McCain in central and western PA.

Having said that, I think the increased registrations and turn-out will put Obama over the top; all of the registrations and footwork should overcome McCain's "natural advantage".

I will be doing my part on tuesday, for sure; I can't promise I won't forget to breath Tuesday night, though.