Maybe they are just laying in wait.  Wright is the only thing that has really been able to put a dent in Obama throughout this entire election cycle.  My guess is that they don't want to over-saturate us with Wright.  If all we heard about all summer long was "Wright Wright Wright Wright" the public would get pretty numb to it.  By keeping it off the table, maybe the Wright issue can come back with a fresh effect if deployed after a lengthy absence.  This (admittedly wacky) scenario makes some sense given the dreary polling data for McCain.  It is clear that his only chance at victory is to manufacture a brief, very well timed window of electoral opportunity.  Wright is probably part of the recipe for that window.

At least, that's my conspiracy theory.

Craziest thing I heard today was Christopher Buckley's (yup, *that* Buckley's) Obama endorsement. www.thedailybeast.com/.../the-conservative-case-for-obama

Much as I admire him, Powell's endorsement is rapidly becoming less interesting....

It's a fun theory, but I actually take the McCain leaks at face value: John McCain is worried about the backlash from playing the Wright card. Beyond that, I agree with phatkarp that even if McCain were inclined to play it, he'd wait until the final week. Either way, no Wright until just before the election, if ever.

As for Powell, my guess is that either a) the Obama camp got strong enough assurances from him privately that they feel confident waiting to roll out his endorsement until later (I doubt the recent McCain-Palin crowds have weakened their confidence in Powell's resolve), or b) he's doesn't want his endorsement dismissed as mere "racial solidarity," so he's working on bringing other Republicans with him over to Obama, maybe Chuck Hagel and/or Dick Lugar.

If Powell endorses now, or anytime between now and the election, isn't he just one of the last rats to desert the sinking ship?

maybe: thanks for the link.  Disarming genuine, even if I hated the old man's guts.

This conspiracy theory assumes a lot that it's not safe to assume. But chief among these counterfactual assumptions is the idea that Powell is enough of a race man to do this sort of thing. Powell is not. Powell is a yes man, not a race man.

I do wonder if Powell's silence has anything to do with regret. Had he run in 2000, he would have had at least a fifty-fifty shot of becoming president. He listened to Alma and didn't run; Obama carried on over his own wife's preferences, and now the younger man has the chance to do what the older could have but chose not to. It doesn't take a dark view of Powell's character to suspect that he might be a little upset at this development. It would be reasonable to see Obama's success as a validation of Powell's career and even proof of the "could have been president" theory, but it would be entirely human to have a more negative reaction.

There will be no Powell endorsement of Obama.

nonsense! Phatkarp is spot on.

Wright will be brought up front in the week before the election. That's their last chance. Obama better have some strong and ruthless counter-attack or he'll lose.

They will not bring up Wright until after the next debate.  And they will not bring him up on a day when the Dow goes below 8000.

Unless . . . more polls start showing McCain under 40, as one or two did today.  Total panic could make them lash out in ways that will make people take in a sharp breath.  The fear will no longer be a McCain defeat, but a Republican wipeout.  If Martin starts to consistently poll ahead of Chambliss in Georgia, for example, we will begin to see ads of either Obama or Martin morphing into Wright.

sleepy, the last week will be too late to use Wright. The window is closing quickly and will be shut by the end of next week if not before. Thereafter it will be old news. IOW, use it now or lose it.

Well, I wonder if it's necessary even to raise Wright.  This from the latest POWPOW campaign:

""He promised higher taxes on electricity," McCain charged at the event in La Crosse, Wisconsin. "He voted for the Democratic budget resolution that promised to raise taxes on people making just $42,000 a year." At that point, the woman yelled "traitor," and both McCain and his wife Cindy appeared to look in her direction."

So it is now treason among Republican rank and file to want to raise taxes.

As for races below, again, to whip up crazy talk, no need to bring Wright into the picture:

"As Talking Points Memo's Greg Sargent noted, GOP loathing for Obama seems to also be "spilling into down-ticket races," with one woman yelling "bomb Obama!" during a Thursday debate between Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss and his Democratic challenger."

"Bomb Obama": So Obama, who has never advocated bombing anything or anyone other than Pakistan is the terrorist, but not the woman who yells this out or the man who hears it and says nothing?

www.huffingtonpost.com/.../obama-called-traitor-agai_n_133613.html

And this continues even as some Republicans look on in horror and recoil, either because of moral qualms or out of political necessity.

Not just Wright, though.  Wait for the "nigger" commercials, and they are coming.  Johnny Mac's co-chair launched the first salvo; the Palin's "not American" running theme is only the tip of that ugly iceberg.

I certainly hope that the Secret Service is keeping close tabs on all of this.

Further, a Wright gambit would have to play as part of a coordinated assault in battleground states. To succeed, McCain and Palin will need to practically empty the bench of his allies and former rivals, and others of high (and low) prestige. I don't think that will be possible after McCain's wretched campaign so far. Who would stick h(er)is neck out?

Colin Powell will not keep his intentions secret. The method or means is less important than timing or the level of endorsement because 1.) He already said he'll reveal his choice, 2.) He made an early donation to McCain and a vote for John means little, and 3.) Both McCain and Obama already know.

However, logic supports him giving the nod to Barack. Anytime in the past several weeks was a better time than now till the end for McCain. Each day a percentage of the vote is cast and McCain needs help before more votes can't be salvaged. Barack is winning by all measure, he can afford to hold his high cards and Powell doesn't mind waiting till after the final debate...just in case Obama makes a giant goof.

Can anyone point to good news from the right? Will, Brooks and now the younger Buckley is only bad news and the list of big names who have spoken out against John will grow. Plus, I can't name anyone who is more supportive now than they were in the past year. Richard Lugar was in town and didn't have a bad word for Barack along with his praise. No, he didn't dive in and defend McCain.

McCain's reason for avoiding Wright may only be a matter of timing as he can't milk Ayers for three more weeks. But playing that card won't piss any away any support because everything that isn't lined up is gone and not returning. This crazy shit only solidifies the crazies while Obama's numbers improve.

McCain might be sorry if he does make this tighter and provides a crisis of conviction among those (not Powell) who may stay quiet if they aren't needed. I think many will be relieved if these ploys fail, McCain loses and they didn't leave any fingerprints on his fall.

It is very simple. McCain isn't happy his should be, reliable folks haven't caved for Barack, He's knows they should have been with him long ago. Quiet is not good for John. Remember the primaries? It wasn't that Kerry or Kennedy came out for Barack early. Too many were on the sideline when she needed them. Hillary was slowly dying as the supers were quiet.

McCain may win. But he'll pay a price. And if he begins to close, his own ugly actions combined with the wall of wrath he bring out will only make the odds greater. He's chosen a path that is a recipe for humiliation rather than victory.  

A McCain turn to Wright is inevitable, unless national polls show McCain in the lead _before_ next week's debate. And it's worth asking: So what if McCain and Powell did have a bargain in place? Powell has a record of keeping quiet even after the powerful white men in his life publicly screw him over. He is the consummate yes man in that regard. And a Powell endorsement of Obama after McCain starts hitting on Wright would be a huge risk for the reputation-conscious Powell. He's not one for stepping into someone else's mud.

Hopefully, someone, whether in the Obama campaign or the DNC or even a 527, has an ad already cut and ready to run piecing together clips of various Evangelical leaders talking about how America deserved 9/11 or Katrina, along with McCain hugging or praising these same people. The video exists; it's only a matter of making the ad. So I hope that it's ready for deployment in response to the inevitable Wright attacks.

(Also, where are the obvious "Who's the real John McCain" ads, pitting video of John McCain taking multiple sides of important issues? Those should be on the air already.)

Sounds quite plausible.

If that is the case, then Powell deserves great credit and somewhat redeems himself. Maybe someone got his Darth Vadar helmet off right at the end.

But why would Powell care about that? Does he respect Wright that much? Maybe it's that protestant black church tradition he's defending and sees it as sticking up for his community.(He's hardly very religious though, is he?)

If so, good for him.

The value of a Powell endorsement could be precisely this. If anyone thinks, as I do, that the rhetoric at the McCain-Palin rallies has gotten out of hand and has the same fears as David Gergen expressed last night on CNN that this sort of activity “could lead to some violence,” then Colin Powell may be the one man in American who could call McCain on it with a “have you no shame, sir, have you no decency” moment. Unfortunately, for the reasons I already mentioned, I do not think this will be forthcoming.

For the complete text of the posting mentioned above as well as other analysis, see www.sarahpalinisgeorgebush.com

Ayers' prosecutor speak up, supports Obama:

www.nytimes.com/.../l10ayers.html

vernezze brings up some logical points but I'm sticking with "McCain's success isn't a priority if it means a safe GOP payroll can be held by some extra sleeze." I think Gergen has a good brain but he's always focused on the White House and never earned the trust of either party in congress.

This is an election where the top of the ticket offers negative coattails. The Indiana governor (R) is in more trouble because of McCain and when he saw his double digit lead disappear he didn't mind how the RNC dollars would be used. For the first time in my memory (early 60's) Indiana Republicans can't count on the head of the ticket. A positive McCain ad is poison an no one has leverage on turning this pretty if it saves a local job.

Do a search on Edward L. Jackson. Central and Southern Indiana make Central Pennsylvania look like Georgetown. Gergen may not want this to get out of hand but this isn't about McCain in too many places. Out of hand, McCain losing and a local victory are just fine in more places than David can imagine.

I propose a different Powell endorsement scenario:  it's being held in reserve mostly to counter any national security October surprise that crops up in the next 2-3 weeks

Powell may be a patriotic American in the best sense of the word, but he's also a political coward who is endlessly deferential to military concerns and traditions. If he was going to openly endorse Obama he would have done so by now. And that deference is why Powell will never speak up about the not-very-subtle race-baiting that the Palin-McCain campaign has been indulging in lately.

A much better response to the Obama-is-traitorous smears than Powell's endorsement would be for the geniuses at the Obama campaign to actually use the 10 or so retired generals and admirals who publicly came out in support of him way back in the primary season. Why Axelrod & Co. haven't already cut an ad using their endorsement is just one of the many Obama advertising mysteries.

I don't see this at all.

And I don't think that the "have you no shame" card is best played by Powell. If John Lewis can't play it, nobody can, and apparently, according to some McCain reporter today, McCain is whipping up some more indignation over John Lewis's comment. Which is nuts, and someone should talk him out of it.

Who would McCain actually listen to, and not accuse of playing a race card? I have no idea. General Petraeus?