The good news is, that since mid-August Obama has had a bit more than the 270 EVs needed to win the election (273) all without OH, FL, VA or NC!  

I can't see any possible way he can lose unless he somehow lost all four of these in the next four weeks PLUS a CO or NM.

Ah, yes, the road to Blowoutville. Not a route they normally teach at U. Betcha.

My daughter, an ardent Obama supporter, smart (you're shocked, I know; spare me), 29 years young, is nervous, as are all her friends. They are motivated. They are taking nothing for granted. They are voting early and often.

In other words, umpteen million damn whippersnappers might actually show up at the polls this time around.

[mutters]

Where are those damn reading glasses?

[coughs violently; spits]

You'll pardon me, but why can't I shake the suspicion that we're setting ourselves up for a disappointment of biblical, or, if you prefer, Dewey-ite proportions?

If Obama can find a way to neutralize a snarling Mummy  tomorrow night, in a way that highlgihts The Mummy's desperation and growing futility, the race may be over.

Obama really needs to deliver a clean verbal blow to The Mummy's aggressiveness.

Joe Lieberman, it is not too early to start kissing Harry Reid's ass...

RealClearPolitics just put MO (11 EVs) in the Obama column, with no toss-up states.  He Now has a 364 EV count, 270 needed to win..

Celtic fatalism, perhaps?  I have it myself, in the genes you know.  But there are many possible events between now and Nov 4 that might change the dynamic, e.g. a major international incident that allows McCain to sound commanding and reassuring again, a terrorist attack somewhere close, Obama revealing that he is in fact a Muslim and wants to reestablish the Caliphate here in the U.S. (ok ok, I have to think of everything, right?), some debate-related shift that moves the numbers back to McCain.

Nevertheless, the real sense of crisis out there is not something that is completely manipulable by the GOP, because people don't trust them on it.  It's not "values," it's something more existential about survival and I think McCain is not grabbing people witih the sense that he has a plan.  In contrast, Obama has the vibe of someone who can take a good look at a complex problem with some other folks who know their stuff, and maybe come up with an idea or two.

Up 6.2% in the Popular Vote (average of all polls).  Here's the EV link: www.realclearpolitics.com/.../obama_vs_mccain.

While Bob Dole can assure us that not all elections are winnable, it is nonetheless true that all elections are losable. (Yes, that' a logical paradox. All the really good ideas are.) So: No complacency. No assuming a victory. If you get the call from the nice Obama volunteer asking you to help canvass this weekend, make the time. (I'm 10-noon this Saturday and next.) If you don't have a little bit of nervously churning fear in the pit of your stomach when you think of the election, cultivate it. Remind yourself of how you felt at the precise moment in 2004 when, after having let yourself believe that Kerry could actually win, you saw the narrow lead in Pennsylvania and realized he was going to lose.

This election is losable. Republicans have won elections for decades by appealing to the worst in the American character. All else being equal, voters will reward the Republican for being a dishonorable asshole at least 60 percent of the time, which is why McCain is going down that road now. It has worked before, and it could work this year.

Irony, you sound like my Scottish husband.

He's very patiently waiting for the October surpise terrorist attack (brough to us courtesy of Blackhawk, the Alaska Separatist Party, the KKK and Al Queda).

PS Jaunty - the snarling mummy had me laughing my head off.

I'll be in DC on the 16th!

Bush would like to 1) Have Israel bomb Iran's nuke house; or, 2) Snare OBL, preferably dead but alive will do; and/or 3) Have a terrorist attack inside USA. I also don't discount massive voter fraud, suing to hold up results in one or more battleground states, etc. Direct military intervention to prevent Obama and Biden from taking office, citing grave threats to national security, backed up by über classified no looky-looky intelligence, relating to "internal Obama campaign documents recently brought to attention by DOJ via FBI.

Lot's of ways to f**k up Democrats. Just depends on how much cash in hand the get Obama at all costs committee has to spend.

Listen to Yard's daughter. I taught high school, and my former students are talking the same way. Remember, these are people who have spent their adulthoods, brief though they may be, with W. as president. You can't underestimate what that would do to a person.

Wandrey, that was funny -- you have a way of catching a guy off-guard!  But I share your husband's blood-chilling pessimism that rolls in like the mist that does be on the bog.

Curiously, however, I don't believe tomeg's (2) would harm Obama.  Catching or taking out OBL would enable Obama to say with some conviction that the Bush administration in its final days has done what it should have done a long time ago, and what he has always been saying.

wandrey...

I really wanted to make the 16th and if it had been on Saturday, the 18th, I could have done it. I would have caught the Friday night red eye and been in DC, bedraggled and jet lagged, but still there.

Since it is on a Thursday, this new Mr. Big Shot job just prevents me from going on this date. I looked at it from all different angles but could not make it work. When I was just a perennially successful middle managers, I could have made it work. I would loved to take in the discussion and gone out for a frosty one with you and any other willing talk backers.

Hoist one for the cookie on the 16th, I will be thinking of all of you...

Ken