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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
05.10.2008
Poll: Obama by 7 in Ohio

Update 6:15pm: Consider this poll with Nate Silver's qualms in mind.

It's Obama 49-42 over McCain according to a new Columbus Dispatch poll of 2262 likely Ohio voters with just a two-point margin of error. (The poll covers 9/24-10/2 and thus doesn't reflect the Biden-Palin debate.)

Falling far behind in Ohio is a nightmare scenario for McCain; he almost surely can't win without it.

And remember, absentee early voting has already started there.

P.S. Obama's support among African-Americans: 94-2.

Update: I had thought this was Obama's best showing in Ohio, but I forgot that Quinnipiac showed him +8 here last week. The RCP spread is Obama +3.

--Michael Crowley

Posted: Sunday, October 05, 2008 11:38 AM with 5 comment(s)

Comments

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Brent said:

If Obama actually wins Ohio, it is merely the luscious cherry on top of the banana split landslide.

October 5, 2008 12:04 PM

lamh31 said:

Here's the thing, about a month or so ago, I commented on how nationally syndicated  Urban radio host and urban radio stations were keeping African American and other Urban radio listeners (Hispanics, younger whites, etc) up on voter registration, voter surpression and GOTV.  Many people (mostly non-minorities) pooh-poohed it.  Well it's in states where most of the voting population is centralized in the large urban cities like Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and places in the South where if African Americans may be a large but still minority portion of the electorate, where having a larger turnout than ever before, could be a difference between Obama winning a state, or just losing a state by a smaller margin.

People should really not underestimate that.

October 5, 2008 12:13 PM

fougasseu said:

Obama should run radio in Ohio, particularly in Hamilton County (Cincinnati) about McCain's ties to Charles Kealting, the Keating five, and McCain's role in agrressively pursuing the deregulation that led to the $200 billion dollar S&L scandal.

Financial pirates Keating, Milken, and Boesky all went to jail, McCain only got his wrist slapped. Keating was one of the early and biggest financial supporters of McCain in Arizona. But Keating's hometown is Cincinnati, where he's a long-time crony of Carl Lindner, Rob Portman, and the rest of the Republican Mafia that has run Hamilton County for years.

Resurrect the Keating-McCain connection in Ohio. It'll work.

www.britanniaradio.co.uk

October 5, 2008 1:00 PM

psantillana said:

lamh, they always underestimate it, because they always look to the past to predict the future, and ignore whatever is happening under their noses that is changing what the past was into what the present is.

And add Missouri to your list. I recently did some voter registration in North St. Louis, and I could barely find anyone who was not already registered. Compare that to four years ago, when I was able to get over 100 new registrations in half a day [which is how long I did this before I moved to another state], and was frequently met with extreme cynicism on the worthwhileness of voting. This time is very very different.

October 5, 2008 5:49 PM

The Stump said:

With the addition of this 51-45 result from a respected polling operation to two other similar numbers

October 6, 2008 6:50 PM