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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
29.09.2008
Bailout Bill Collapses--Biggest Prisoners' Dilemma Problem Ever

It looks like the bailout bill just failed in the House, an alarming prospect as the Dow nosedives. My sense of what happened is this: There were a healthy majority of congressmen who wanted the bill to pass, but many of them (most of them?) also wanted to be on record voting against it, for obvious political reasons. So you got a classic prisoners' dilemma situation: Everyone's best-case scenario was to vote against the bill and have everyone else vote for it. Unfortunately, as anyone who's taken introductory micro knows, that usually leads to the worst-case scenario, where everyone defects and the whole venture collapses.

The good news is that there should be some universe of people out there willing to switch their votes--the members who want this thing to pass but were being clever earlier. Here's hoping Nancy Pelosi et al can round them up if there's another push on this.

--Noam Scheiber 

Posted: Monday, September 29, 2008 2:23 PM with 13 comment(s)

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prnoonan said:

The Ds need to drive a harder bargain here.  I don't trust Boehner at all.  They should introduce a sub amendment with everything Ds want -- bankruptcy reform, unemployment extensions, infrastructure, an exec pay cap with teeth.  Make the House Rs vote against these popular things as punishment for this (a benefit of having the majority).  Then let them know that they get one more chance.  If they can't get more than 65 yea votes (2:1 against), let them know it's going to be a Herbert Hoover election all over again.

September 29, 2008 2:33 PM

rozenson said:

Well that's the scenario we initially expected from House Republicans -- they wanted to have the Democrats pass it and then they could blame it on them. To quote Paul Ryan (R-WI):

"We're all worried about losing our jobs. Most of us say, 'I want this thing to pass, but I want you to vote for it — not me.' "

September 29, 2008 2:36 PM

arsonplus said:

Tep -- I'd appreciate a bit of "what were those morons thinking" outrage right now. I'm f-king speechless.

September 29, 2008 2:45 PM

miceelf said:

Thank God McCain intervened to save it.

September 29, 2008 2:59 PM

blackton said:

I say make Bush repeal the 2001 tax cuts, bring about his final and total humiliation.

Really, the Dems should go much lower, a hundred billion initial stabilization fund. Paulson really screwed the pooch from day one with his 700 billion my way or the highway approach, that is what has stuck in everyones mind.

September 29, 2008 3:01 PM

tomeg said:

As I thought last week when all this came to a head and the "bailout" scheme rearing its ugly head like Godzilla in Tokyo Bay, nuclear breath and all, the biggest mistake was to sell the deal as up or down, do or die. That tipped off Main Street that Congress, Wall Street, and the Administration were colluding, and Main Street reacted (like, nuclear reacted). Bush's shaky "We *will pass a bill* speech was the last straw.

September 29, 2008 3:02 PM

benjamin81 said:

It seems to me they need to go back to the drawing board. I've seen some little-discussed alternatives to the Paulson bill; perhaps one of them bears merit? (Admittedly, they were in Mother Jones.)

I think what people are looking for is A bill from Congress, but not necessarily THIS bill. If they can get a less-expensive a alternative bill together and pass that, their constituents will probably be happy.

September 29, 2008 3:06 PM

prnoonan said:

Make them vote on bankruptcy reform and unemployment extensions, and then run ads about it from now until the election.  Fuck em.

September 29, 2008 3:09 PM

Rhubarbs said:

I'm with prnoonan. The president can't even bring one-third of his own party to the table, so he has no leverage for negotiations. What's he gonna do, veto a bailout bill after warning America on prime time TV that failure to pass a bill would lead to another Great Depression? So Democrats should stop negotiating with Republicans entirely and craft their own ideal bill, and be prepared to pass it with no GOP votes in either house. Make it a clear test of McCain's ability to lead his own party. McCain clearly doesn't even have a couple dozen followers in his own caucus, so either he stands in favor of the bill and loses, or he opposes the bill and permanently ratifies his already coalescing campaign image as the guy who thinks the economy is just fine. And in either case, he looks like a hysterical old lady who can't decide whether the sky is falling or not.

September 29, 2008 3:57 PM

Nusholtz said:

I think that President Bush set out to prove that government is not competent to handle our problems and Congress is now voting atop a sizeable population of voters that has been convinced by his efforts.

September 29, 2008 4:32 PM

teplukhin2you said:

arson - I would prefer that our media betters tell us WHO voted against the bill, esp that 90+ contingent of Democrats, and do some interviewing of some of them, and tell us WHY these Democrats voted against the bill.

This circus is merely heightening the public's contempt for the east coast elites, financial, congressional and media elites alike. All three are behaving like chickens with their heads cut off. Virtually none of them is focused on defining the problem with any clarity, measuring it with any precision, and focusing on alternative paths forward.

September 29, 2008 4:37 PM

schrek2000 said:

"The good news is that there should be some universe of people out there willing to switch their votes--the members who want this thing to pass but were being clever earlier. Here's hoping Nancy Pelosi et al can round them up if there's another push on this."

Well, if the NYT roll call page is correct, maybe she can start with her own California delegation where I count 15 Democrats voting "No". Can that possibly be right?

September 29, 2008 4:50 PM

Crock1701 said:

WHO voted against he bill Tep?  God, can you do research?  It was a fricking roll call vote!  Can you not be bothered to use Google?  Then again, why should I be surprised?  This is someone who exists not for the facts but for the outrage.  And of course, like Jacobtl, drops in a column by Jeff Jacoby, partisan hack, to somehow make his point without having to actually, you know, use logic, facts or relevenc to prove a point beyond his hysteria.    

September 29, 2008 8:40 PM