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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
09.09.2008
Doldrums

It'll be a few more days before we learn whether McCain-Palin are just riding a convention bounce or have changed the fundamental dynamics of the race. I think there's good reason to believe Palinmania will wear off and Obama will rise again. But it's got to be unnerving out in Chicago to see that a must-win state like Pennsylvania is creeping ever closer to a tie.

And here's the case for longer-term concern. It feels a bit as though Obama is out of steam, something that's happened before. The man needs big moments to rekindle his fire. Throughout the campaign, he's found those moments. His knockout Jefferson-Jackson performance in Iowa last December. That dazzling Kennedy family endorsement. Claiming the nomination on June 3. The unity event with Hillary. Invescopalooza. But what's left now? A killer debate performance, perhaps--but anyone who remembers last fall wouldn't bank on that (even if he did improve with time).

So what's left? I reiterate: Colin Powell. He could decide this election if he wanted to.

--Michael Crowley

Posted: Tuesday, September 09, 2008 4:38 PM with 22 comment(s)

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teplukhin2you said:

Doldrums? What doldrums, when the Obamaphiles are providing so much excitement:

Obama followers on Democrat Underground create Ebay listing to sell Trig Palin [scroll down for screenshots]

http://tinyurl.com/6n4k48

September 9, 2008 4:56 PM

aref_j said:

That's the biggest of the silver linings at the moment (before there is some confirmation, one way or the other, about how much of the bounce is sticking)....that the prospect of McCain winning (combined with the Palin as VP choice) might actually jolt the likes of Lugar/Hagel/Powell into doing something public.

September 9, 2008 4:59 PM

cal80 said:

I don't think Powell has the star power any more to kick start Obama's campaign.  Obama has to look to himself, not surrogates, to get back on track.  

September 9, 2008 5:01 PM

kevincollins said:

I also think Obama is out of steam, especially judging by his pretty poor interview ith O'Reilly. Speaking of which, I'm an avid, everyday visitor to tnr.com, and I haven't seen any write-up pertaining to his O'Reilly performance. If I've overlooked it, please direct me to it.

September 9, 2008 5:03 PM

jyunis said:

I'm not sure Colin Powell alone can swing the momentum back towards Obama. Maybe he needs a Chuck Hagel-Powell-Scowcroft combination to help.  I fear though, outside of a particularly strong debate performance, there really is not much left for Obama to do except to tirelessly campaign through swing states.

Obama needs to attack both McCain and Palin, and at the same time, hope Palin herself, or the media, somehow deflates the current obsession with her.  

September 9, 2008 5:10 PM

kgrant1054 said:

Mr. Crowley,

Step away from the computer.  I mean it.  Stop reading the daily tracking polls, don't turn on the tube, and whatever you do, don't read MoDo or any of the other members of the chattering class, because by God, you are going to give me a sympathetic ulcer with all of your incessant worrying and wringing of hands.  Your only reaction these days is the defensive crouch.

Have you looked at Obama on the stump as of late?  Does he look like a politician that thinks that the world is coming to an end?  Does he strike you as someone in the grip of a kind of fear only Hunter Thompson could adequately describe? (I am re-reading Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail '72 for my entertainment reading this week.)  

Now, tep and the rest of the gang will simply state that this is due to his utter lack of experience and standard cluelessness about politics and governance, but I would argue it is because he knows what he is doing.  I would guess that Obama has always known that this was going to be a long, difficult fight, and that it will be won only in the get out the vote effort.  Obama is going to win only if he can get his organization working at peak efficiency.  That is how he beat Hillary in the primaries.  That is how he will beat McCain in two months.  The big speeches and assorted trappings are nice, but they don't register voters, and they don't get voters to the polls.  They get you interested, but it is the folks on the ground who make sure that you get to the voting booth.  That is where this election will be won.

So relax.  Have a beer or six, drink a good bottle or two of a solid Pinot Noir (the '04s are decent now), or simply pound shots of really cheap bourbon, but my God man, do something so that I can stop fearing for your health.

September 9, 2008 5:11 PM

teplukhin2you said:

Both McCain and Obama are tired. McCain's also old, possibly ill. If Obama had any cojones he'd be attacking McCain's physical and mental fitness for the POTUS marathon. That's his best card, by far. Not exactly a dirty one, either.

In any case if he's not ruthless about winning this thing, he's not going to be ruthless enough to advance our interests in the world. ("Our" = US, btw. In case the Obama OneWorlders were wondering.)

September 9, 2008 5:14 PM

ironyroad said:

Once again -- this is like checking your wallet and shrieking OHMIGOD I'VE NO MONEY a week before payday.  It's worth keeping the bigger picture in mind, especially that we have almost two months to go and that's plenty of time for the giltter and gilt to wear off Palin and for McCain to lose what he picked up from standing next to her.

I don't think either Obama or McCain are great debaters but there is a huge, I mean come on, a huge list of national problems that we need to deal with, from energy to terrorism to health care to reconfiguring our economy to building up our diplomatic assets etc etc.  Obama needs to pick two or three and hammer them home -- it's new direction or four more years of the same (in fact, even worse, it's four more years of the same pretending to be different).

September 9, 2008 5:19 PM

kevincollins said:

By the way, why has neither Obama or TNR commented on the glaring contradiction of Bush averring he's for a growing democracy in Iraq but has rejected timelines that the supposed demoracy in Iraq is for?

September 9, 2008 5:19 PM

lsernoff said:

I have read comments on this site from Obamaphiles panning the MSNBC interview.  Kevincollins, posting above, was not impressed with the O'Reilly performance. And Richard Cohen, of all people, finds him a bore in today's Washington Post.  Obviously, he's out of steam.

Those who read my posts on this site should expect me to be licking my chops.  I'm not.  I think Obama is, or should be, far from defeatist.  I offer some advice to him, for whatever he, or my fellow subscribers think it's worth.

First, take a break, read a book, and rediscover your story.  Obama has risen like a rocket, and from nowhere.  A tad reminiscent of McCain's hero,  Teddy Roosevelt.  Even more impressive, given that he wasn't born with TR's advantages.  His problem, to put it crudely, is that he hasn't been kicked in the nuts.  He'd do well to take a day or two off and read, or re-read, The Rise of Theodore Roosevelt (getting over the loss of his young wife), McCullough's  John Adams and/or Nixonland (the man's emotional flaws were legion, but he almost always knew how to absorb a hit when he wasn't punching himself in the face).  Toughen up Barack!

Second, distance yourself from the madder dogs in the MSM and the leftie blogs.  Make it clear they play their cards, you play yours.  Their interests (and preferred strategies) and yours are by no means entirely in sync.

Third, pay attention to what McCain is doing.  He is trying to distance himself from Bush and having some success at it.  The only institution less popular than Bush is Congress.  You may have noticed that the Democrats run Congress now.  Put some distance between yourself and Pelosi, Reid and the Democratic barons.

Fourth, rethink your core issues.  The peepul see your tax proposals as a re-distribution scheme; take from the rich give to the poor.  The middle class's resentment of the McMansion rich is in equipoise with their dislike of the persistent underclass ( some of which is racial; some of which invokes personal security concerns).  Bill Clinton got the message and the policy right in his time).  

Finally, put yourself in the Powell mode; a black man who through enormous self-discipline projected himself to the top of the heap, against all odds.  This may require you to reveal yourself as more calculating and ambitious than the charaismatic image that has carried you to this point, but so what!  Americans want a president who is ambitious,  Who else would get a shot at the "crown"  or deserve that shot.  Who knows, if you do that Powell might just endorse you (but don't bet on it).

As always, other posters are invited to have at me.

September 9, 2008 6:23 PM

GSpinks said:

PA may be a must-win, but it never was either a gimme or a bell-weather state for Obama; there are a lot of "For the first time in my life, I will vote Republican" and "For the first time in my life, I will stay home" types in PA -- the concentration gets especially high (50%+) in the rural counties. And, he has an automatic 10 point disadvantage because of the "That N****R should be hangin' from my tree" voters which are more or less evenly distributed throughout the state.

OTOH, PA is actually moderate enough that once people hear about all of Palin's positions it should go back to favoring Obama comfortably.

September 9, 2008 6:28 PM

GSpinks said:

"Americans want a president who is ambitious,"

Its not that I don't agree, lsernoff; but, IIRC, it was only a few (4?) weeks ago when McCain was criticizing Obama for being "ambitious".

September 9, 2008 6:31 PM

bdespain1 said:

Clearly Tep you didn't even bother to follow the link or look at the"Ebay Jpeg." I use quotes because that picture is pretty clearly a photoshop because Ebay's result pages look nothing like that. Not a single shred of proof it was done by Obamaphiles.

BSD

September 9, 2008 6:40 PM

teplukhin2you said:

Best advice I've seen, lsernoff. #3 and #4 are brilliant. BHO should run against not just Bush but Pelosi, who has no friends outside SF and has achieved nothing in her time as speaker.

September 9, 2008 6:44 PM

sdemuth said:

Tep must have gotten over his summer vacation or something.  He's talking perfect sense everywhere.

Yes, Obama should go after McCain's fitness (literally) for office.

Yes, if he doesn't have the instinct to go for the jugular now on real issues, he's less qualified than I'd believed to be president.

September 9, 2008 6:45 PM

lsernoff said:

tep. thanks again for your compliments.  Whatever happens, the political year has been very interesting.  My guess is that it will remain so, and my hope is that whoever wins will be a stronger president for having survived it.

September 9, 2008 8:04 PM

teplukhin2you said:

If it forces Obama to up his game and get some steel in his spine, all the better.

September 9, 2008 8:58 PM

gennitydo said:

Tep - I agree with you too.  Obama will win only this if he is totally ruthless.  The two words that should be on the lips of every American are: malignant melanoma

He does not seem up to it at the moment.  It seems like he shifted the focus to governing after wrapping up the primaries and forgot about the small matter of the general election.  I hope he changes and quickly.

September 9, 2008 9:11 PM

ChanRobt said:

Much as I admire Colin Powell, and think he could have won the presidency in any election starting with 2000, I'm not so certain his endorsement would be enough to turn things around for Obama, stunning though it would be.

Who is still left in play?  Independents?  Yes.  But Palin seems to really be turning their heads.  Women?  Many were.  But, Palin seems to be turning a significant number of them and erasing the usual GOP gender gap.

Blue collar PA, OH and the other such states?  I think they'd vote for Powell, but not over McCain, and not for Obama on Powell's say-so.

Not to mention, the big question floating over all this is, do endorsements change elections?  Was the Kennedy family endorsement the clincher for Obama over Clinton?  Think no to both.  He would have beat Hillary even without the Kennedys.

September 10, 2008 12:33 AM

ChanRobt said:

gennitydo writes, "Obama will win this only if he is totally ruthless."

gennity, ruthless only works if you are smart and ruthless.  And Obama seems to be losing his smarts-- maybe out of exhaustion.

Meanwhile, Obama is reversed his stance on so many issues, he's in danger of becoming McCain Lite.

Finally, Obama has fallen into the Palin trap.  He's dissing her and running against her.  Thus elevating Palin to his level instead of leaving her down with Biden.

Not smart.

September 10, 2008 12:36 AM

ChanRobt said:

Isernoff writes, "...Obama has risen like a rocket, and from nowhere.  A tad reminiscent of McCain's hero,  Teddy Roosevelt."

Izzie, you need to re-read your history.  Teddy emerged early, but hardly out of nowhere.  He was active in New York and national politics in the 1880's, becoming assistant Secretary of the Navy, then organized the Rough Riders earning him wide fame for his exploits in Cuba during the Spanish American War.  That helped him win the governorship of the nation's largest state, New York.  

From that high profile position he moved into the vice presidency.  The accident of McKinley's assassination made him our youngest president.  In other words, Teddy move up fast.  But not out of virtual obscurity as Obama did.  And not like Obama, with few accomplishments to point at.  

Subcabinet member, war hero, governor, vice president.  Then president.  Much more substantial in achievements than Obama to date.

September 10, 2008 12:48 AM

TheOneIsHere2008 said:

Obama beat Hillary because Hillary had to fight with one hand behind her back...She was afraid to alienate African Americans because she knew she would need their votes in the general election...John McSame has no such compunctions...

I hope he has a rabbit to pull out of his hat because if the election was tomorrow he would lose...

As to the gentlemen who said polls don't matter because we live in a new age that's the same bullshit the Jacobins were peddling during the French Revolution when they thought they could change everything including time...

September 10, 2008 9:04 PM