After about five minutes of anxiety, I am overwhelmed with joy.  I'm practically giddy.

We're at war.  Our economy is shaky (though not tanking).  There are numerous foreign policy problems on the horizon.  Public trust in the government is a shambles.  

And they pick a screamingly, hilariously obvious identity-politics pander, with no foreign policy experience AT ALL.  She makes Obama look like Warren Christopher.  AND she has, in two years, already managed to get herself involved in an undue-influence scandal.

Hey, women!  McCain thinks you're stupid!  How's THAT for a slogan?

If you listened to McCain introduce her when he got to her accomplishments, being on the PTA was third from the end before Mayor and Governor. There are a lot of bright people on my daughters' school PTA, I think Obama really blew it by not picking one of them as his running mate.

This should be viewed as an offensive choice for most women voters.

I repeat my comment from another thread:

I have an alternate theory.

John McCain knows he is going to lose this election.  His task, then, is to prepare the Republican party for the future.

In 2012, Palin will have been governor for four years.  If she builds a credible record, she can run for president in her own right, having received good marks for being a good soldier in the 08 campaign.  She will have been moved to the front of the line for the Republican nomination.  She is the next Bob Dole without Dole's baggage.

At the top of the ticket a Senator who thinks Iraq borders Pakistan.  Who can't tell Sunni from Shia.  A 71 one year old in questionable health.  A heart beat away - is Palin?  Small town mayor, tackle box manufacturer, and 2 years as governor of the biggest small state in the country.  An incrediblly bad choice, identity politics and pander at its worst.  McCain really thinks the public is going to buy the "most qualified" rationale?

I can't wait until the first match up with Joe Biden.  I hope he'll be gentle.

Let's think about this for a moment in the context of the Republican convention.

Marquee speakers: Dick Cheney, W, Rudy "noun-verb-9/11" Giuliani, followed by unknown and inexperienced governor (MSNBC will have a field day) who, to be credible, must deliver a knockout speech, followed by a 72 year old senator who still can't read a speech.

Today is probably the HIGH point of the Republican convention.

I'm sure women voters will determine on their own whether Palin is an "offensive choice" or not, and will not rely on the sexist opinions offered by men.  You guys wonder why Hillary's supporters are so bitter, but the crappy comments I see in places like this confirms why they are still mad.  They really don't like men telling them what to think or do, and that is what most men continue to insist on doing.  I don't think by nominating a woman veep McCain is showing women that he thinks they are stupid.  Keep up the sexist comments and you will see who wins this election.

timteeter has the only plausible theory I've heard. Maybe I'm just missing something - something huge - but this strikes me as Harriet-Meiers-level of wtf.

Pray, cal80, tell me what on earth Palin has to recommend her for the office of vice-president?  What possible qualifications does she have to be on this ticket, particularly given the age and health history of the man at the top?  Please tell me how anything that has been said here in any way equates with telling women what to do or think.  What, beyond her demographic advantages, does Palin offer that I have missed?

Or, perhaps, your comments about sexism are a wee bit misplaced, and poorly thought-out?

Who are McCain's picks for Sec's State and Defense?  Strong choices here can neutralize much of the "FP inexperience" criticism (like Biden did for Obama) as well as reassure the FP-minded voter that the country will be in safe, experienced hands.

And I'm with timteeter--- in a field of completely uninspiring, conventional  VP choices, McCain opted for an popular, rising star of the Republican party.  Win or lose in 2008, Palin has a chance to do for the face of the GOP what Rick Warren did for Evangelicals.  Look for a tighter, brighter, "well-rested" looking GOP in 2012.  

How many Hillary supporters like Palin's positions (she's strongly pro-life, pro-drilling, etc)? The choice may not be offensive to women generally (although I think it's pandering) but it does seem to me to be offensive to Hilliary's supporters.

Michael Crowley-

I think Schumer misreads the significance of picking Sarah Palin: yes, she's a woman, and, yes, there are some Hillary voters who may be stupid enough to be drawn to the GOP by that fact alone. But I would argue that McCain selection of Palin is in one very significant respect similar to George H.W. Bush's selection of Dan Quayle--and it's not that the two of them are intellectual lightweights with very little experience; it's that Palin, like Quayle, is apparently perceived by the evangelicals and social conservative in the GOP base as a true believer.

This is from the NY Times website as of a few minutes ago:

________________________________________________________________________________

"They’re [social conservatives are] beyond ecstatic," said Ralph Reed, the former head of the Christian Coalition. "This is a home run. She [Palin] is a reformer governor who is solidly pro-life and a person of deep Christian faith."

_______________________________________________________________________________

As I've said on these threads for some months now, there is one major concern that McCain had to take into account when selecting his VP: that he doesn't have strong support from the evangelical/social conservative base of his own party. There's plenty of  evidence for this: for instance, Huckabee's success in the primaries--despite having virtually no campaign budget whatsoever--was largely due to a widely held distrust of the GOP front-runner (ie, McC) by many millions of Christian Right voters. Which is why, one might argue, Huckabee surprised and destroyed McCain in states like West Virginia, Alabama, Arkansas (Huck's home state), Tennessee, and Georgia.

In other words, the GOP base wasn't then, and isn't now, all that happy with their nominee. If McCain was aware of this (and how could he not be?), and if he valued that support, he was going to need to pull the base behind him with a bona fide believer as his VP. Which is very much the position George H.W. Bush found himself in when he picked Quayle to mollify the religious nutwings in his own party. (Reagan and W didn't face this problem, as both of them were widely perceived as true believers themselves.)

Which is to say, picking Palin may go a long way toward winning over the millions upon millions of bible-thumping voters in the GOP camp--may get them fired up, and contributing and volunteering, may get a vast, multi-billion-dollar, evangelical, alternative media beating the drum for McCain.

Of course, picking Palin may also attract a number of Clintonistas and PUMAs to the McCain ticket, but I would argue that this pick had perhaps more to do with McCain's desperate need to win over his own evangelical/social conservative base.

What cal80 said. How is Palin an "offensive choice"? All she's done is come from nowhere (like Obama, by the way) to a governor's chair while winning beauty contests, raising a family, and killing her own food. How exactly is this a bad thing? Just because she hasn't trolled Beltway corridors trying to suck off this or that government teat for twenty years doesn't mean she's not an accomplished woman. This is not only sexist bias, but also pro-Washington/big government bias that plays poorly with plenty of Americans, and not only women.

If you allow Obama the option of learning on the job (I do), how can you not allow Palin the same option, particularly since she's in the No. 2 slot, not No. 1?

Having five kids, one of whom is disabled, is a HUGE plus among the Republican base and much of the center. Just because liberals believe in birth control doesn't mean everyone does. I heard a conservative Christian radio show a couple years ago where the two commentators were practically bragging about the fact that one of them had nine kids and the other ten. They noted that they best way to win a demographic war is to outbreed your opponents, so they cackled as they encouraged pro-choice Americans to have as few children as possible. To these folks, and there are millions of them, Palin is music to their ears. Anyone who thinks, a priori, that limiting family size is a good idea isn't gonna vote for McCain anyway.

And she's music to the eyes, too. For every independent voter subconsciously leaning Obama because he's a good-looking guy, you now will have a beauty queen siphoning off subconscious votes in the other direction. Biden is gonna have to say something stupid every ten minutes to hope to get more air time than Palin will.

She also drives herself, hunts moose, and got elected by flushing out corrupt pols. McCain is an effete Beltway pinot grigio drinker in comparison.

I don't share dubyadoubte's confidence in Biden at the VP debate. He will have his way with her on foreign policy but she will hold her own on everything else, and plenty of viewers will be viewing, not listening. And then if Biden slips up and calls her "honey" or patronizes her in any way, PUMAs will rise from the grave like flesh-eating zombies with a serious case of the munchies.

Go ahead, tell the next woman you see who raises a family and works full-time that Palin is a silly choice. Good luck with that.

Consider also the huge potential risk:

Obama can have a bad day, and then move on.  He has skills to get over it and an intensely loyal following.

Biden can have a bad day, and then move on.  Everyone smiles at his gaffes now, and he's immensely likable.

Even John McCain can have a bad day ("how many houses?") and stil survive and move on.  He has had good press relations in the past and he was, ya know, a POW.

What's Palin got besides novelty.  Not experience.  Not a "maverick" on any serious issue (let's drill in ANWR!).  Just one bad day from Palin, who has no track record or history of friendly media-relations to insulate her, and she's toast.  This year's Dan Quayle.  Just one bad day, just one hint of inexperience, and the media narrative is set for the next month.

Timteeter's right, McCain's got an eye to the GOP's future with the Palin pick.

Did Republicans REALLY want Romney or Ridge to be the next face of their party? Pawlenty would have been okay in this regard, since he apparently embodies that Sam's Club Republicanism that's been so highly touted.

But with Palin, McCain is almost conceding Obama's victory. With a full term as governor under her belt and the national stature coming from this race, she'll be well-positioned to run against Obama in 2012.

Though, it wouldn't be Palin/Jindal... after all, you wouldn't want a ticket totally bereft of foreign policy experience.

Williamyard, being the attractive mom from next door is a two-edged sword.  I work with any number of attractive, intelligent women.  I don't think of them as presidential material.

In fact, she *reinforces* the "four more years of Bush" narrative.  She is, if anything, even MORE in line with W than McCain, from what I can tell.

This is a choice that has to work perfectly to work at all.  A high stakes gamble.  I'm betting it doesn't work.

How many days does a VP have, though?  One prepared speech and one debate, that's all she has to do, really.

I can't help but think "Harriet Meyers"

Apparently this literally was a last-minute "Hail Mary" pass.  According to the media, McCain was thinking seriously about a pro-choice pick until Rove and company parachuted in and dissuaded him -- hence Palin as some kind of compromise between McCain's need to burnish his "maverick" image and the demands of the party of Rove.

I think this is actually a good choice from the Democrats' point of view.  Palin is politically insignificant.  She neutralizes the experience argument completely.  She hands the Democrats an absolutely bullet-proof way of talking directly about McCain's age without directly saying he is too old to be president.  They can talk very soberly about what the actuarial tables say about the likelihood of McCain dying in office and the necessity of viewing Palin as significantly likely to succeed to the presidency based on being mayor of a town of 9,000 and governor of a small state for two years.  When the Republicans talk about her executive experience, all the Democrats need to do is talk about how Alaska is a state in which people don't pay taxes, they are all given a gift every year by the state out of the taxes that Alaska imposes on oil extraction, taxes paid by the entire rest of the country.  "Palin has no experience in managing the difficult balance between essential government services and the tax burden imposed on citizens.  She is governor of a state where everyone is on welfare, paid for by taxes that come out of the pockets of everyone else in America."  Stokes resentment against Republican welfare without coming directly in the sites of the class-warfare rejoinder.

Although I find timteeter's theory interesting, one thing bothers me:

Why does John McCain give a rat's ass about the GOP's future? The GOP has not exactly been best buddies with John McCain since, like, forever. He doesn't owe the GOP jack.

He's, what, a couple points down (maybe) in the polls? With plenty of time for something to happen between now and November? He's down maybe, what, 15 points in the Electoral College?

And he's going to throw in the towel? After running for President for 8+ years, coming from nowhere this year?

You've run the marathon, you're a hundred yards from the finish, and you go, "What the hell. Think I'll sit down, take a load off."

Here's a little theory of my own: no.

Someone commented on this elsewhere, but another possible silver lining:

Hillary should now be doubly motivated to help defeat a McCain/Palin ticket, one would think. Her running for president in 2016 wouldn't be unthinkable with an outgoing Obama administration, but it'd be tough to imagine her running against Palin in an all-XX 2016 election (or 2012 if McCain dies or does the one-term pledge).

Or then again, maybe potentially mistake-laden Palin would be easier for Hillary to challenge on competency grounds. Interesting side-question.

Williamyard, I'm a mother of three who works full time and I think that Palin is a monumentally silly choice. As far as I can tell she has very little substance. Less than halfway into her first term as the governor of a small state? And before that the mayor of a town of 7,000? I wouldn't take any male candidate with that resume seriously; why would I take her seriously? If she's a woman of accomplishment, what are those accomplishments? (I personally do not consider moose-hunting an accomplishment, and I am also unimpressed by the Miss Wasilla crown.)

williamyard, I wasn't a Clinton woman, so I can't speak from there, but from what I heard, they were all fired up to be offended if Obama picked any woman who wasn't Clinton and who had fewer than [those extremely questionable] 35 years of "experience". They would have been offended by Sebelius or Napolitano or McCaskill, in other words, all of whom have more experience than Sarah Palin and all of whom are pro-choice dems.

You're looking at her demographics and all of that, but she really is insanely green. MUCH much more so than Obama, who has more years as Senator than she has as Gov, and who had 8 years in the Illinois legislature before that. She was mayor of Wassila. I don't care if she hunts moose or has a down's syndrome baby, there is something of a floor to this preznit job, particularly in times as critical as these are. Obama not only has more traditional experience than she does, but has demonstrated skills in organization, diplomacy, negotiation, uh, Constitutional law - Does she? Do you seriously put them at the same level? Or do you just think she's cute and spunky?

Yard,

McCain and the Republicans can't have it both ways.  They can't criticize Obama, or during the primaries, Sen. Clinton, as being uprepared, not ready to be President, and yet make the case that Gov. Palin, in spite of her personal accomplishments, is ready to assume the Presidency at a moment's notice.  The central theme of McCain's campaign is that Obama is not ready to lead.  And Gov. Palin is?  Strangely, McCain claims that Palin can help him "shake up Washington".  Senator, you are Washington.  

I agree on the point that Biden has to be careful, both in tone and body language.  Recall Rep. Lazio's disastrous approach to Hillary Clinton.  Biden has to be careful not to be appear sexist or condescending.  That video of Biden in 1988 berating a questioner and boasting of his academic accomplishments was painful to watch.  

"Hail Mary Pass" is too dramatic, but he has time.

But he is throwing downfield hoping for a big gain. As Holz said, "Only three things can happen when you throw...and two of them aren't good." So if it's sport analogy time? I think Biden can cover her and I wouldn't be distracted. Blitz Johnny. He can't read a defense and the odds are good two of the three bad things will happen when he drops back.

Back to politics...McCain moved right because he saw the center wouldn't accept him. Well, he'd have to go pro-choice and wasn't allowed. This is a gift for Barack because Johnny won't make giant gains with the base, they'd already come around and didn't need to go this wacky to seal them.

Obama leaves the convention with his left secure and can roam around at will in the center. His team must have known McCain would have it tough in the middle but I'll bet they didn't think he'd surrender it. This may allow some moderate Republicans (the Powell types) to cave for Barack early. Oh, can Lieberman back her and stay a Dem?

psantillana, snap - you're astringent but always concise and right. I'm just glad you're on my side.

I watched the speech and wow, she is the personification of an affirmative action pick.  Yes, a cool, interesting lady, not without merit - but certainly not someone for me to fear as a Democrat.  

To say she has a lack of gravitas is a serious understatement.  Biden better be careful and not be a jerk.  This is where his "oops. did I say that?" stuff becomes a bit hair-raising.

Every working Mom I've emailed with, just anecdotal of course - is greatly relieved by such a dumb pick. One (a Republican small business owner) was actually really irritated McCain didn't pick that lady CEO if he was going affirmative action.

Let's use Hillary's terminology: does Palin pass the Commander in Chief test?  Uh, maybe but somehow I don't think so.  Please Senator C - check in soon on this.

But the evangelicals will rally now and that may be all McCain needs.

Joe Cuomo said it better than I. The pick locks up McCain's base. Ralph Reed is ecstatic.

Look, y'all don't have to convince me she's green (in the old-fashioned sense of the word). But I'm not the one who needs convincing.

Not that I don't think she has downside--or a high-stakes gamble, as timteeter more accurately puts it. ndmackensie's noted some scandals brewing in her administration, which at the least negate the claim that she's a reformer. Also, she may come across in the debate or elsewhere as an airhead. (I've never heard her speak, so I can't speak from experience.)

But, again, I can't think of many people who will be seriously underwhelmed by her lack of experience who were giving McCain much of a look, anyway. It's the right-leaning Western liberatarians who will be most comfortable with her along with the evangelicals, and the latter just might get out and volunteer and donate with her on the ticket. They are, if memory serves, the rank and file of the GOP's highly successful GOTV operation the last two go-rounds. The last thing Obama needs is Rove's army to re-enlist.

Someone mentioned that, next to McCain, she looks like his daughter. As if this is a bad thing. The family-values right values consistent tradition and smooth transition. They don't like change. With Palin, they won't get it.

She's potentially a handy Rorshach for the eye of the beholder: you want a rugged individualist, or a mom effacing herself on behalf of her kids, or a devout Christian, or the GOP's female answer to liberal feminism, or a good shot with dinner in the crosshairs, or a daughter any ex-Vietnam POW would be proud of, well, pardners, Palin's your gal.

Jill of all trades, mistress of none.

[full disclaimer: I'm not that hot on her, personally. Just doin' a bit of advocating on behalf of the devil, on this lazy Friday...]

Remember, folks, sometimes a Hail Mary pass wins the game:

www.youtube.com/watch

Wandrey,

Your Republican small business owner who wanted Fiorina evidently didn't hold any HP stock during Carly's tenure as CEO. I did. Ouch--my retirement was delayed several months, at least, as a result.

Then, of course, I decided to cut bait, I dumped HP, HP dumped Fiorina, and the company and stock rebounded.

Thanks, Carly!

Yard is right. Underestimate this woman at your hazard. She may well show much better than most of you are expecting. Oh. She's likely well acquainted with the petro-dynamics of our current distress by virtue of her current station.

I'm glad that you see this as I do, Wandrey, and all your anecdotal buddies. I was afraid he'd pick the sunny Huckabee, who would get the evangelical vote, and who might have made Biden look like a crabby nag; I'm always looking for a reason to be afraid. But now I'm just not. I've got nothing. I'm just going to relax, leave the driving to Greyhound*, and register voters.

*metaphorically, ahem.

Yard - "'m not that hot on her, personally. Just doin' a bit of advocating on behalf of the devil..."

As the smart aleck reporter in "Inherit the Wind" says to Clarence Darrow upon his arrival in true believer country, "Hello Devil. Welcome to Hell."

I don't find Palin attractive in the slightest, either politically or pulchritudinally (the hair is even more unintentionally hilarious than Obama's pre-Denver gasbag speeches), but it's a very clever choice, for all hte reasons that JoeCuomo and Yard have brilliantly laid out.

One more reason is energy security. Wait till next week, when Putin cuts the supply of oil and gas to Poland and Germany in revenge for the EU's sticks. McCain's going to revere himself on ANWR, and the nat sec'y debate will shift toward energy security and drill drill drill. Advantage McC-Palin.

dubya,

I noted in another thread that, as you state, this lets some of the air out of the "Obama is green" stuff. Realistically, though, people are much less interested in experience in No. 2 than in No. 1. Think McCain won't serve out his term? Wanna bet? The GOP could easily groom her in four years as VP as "experienced." This "heartbeat away from the Presidency" business sounds great but, in practice, how often does it happen? They can finesse their way through it if they put their minds to it while some of the "Obama is green" stuff sticks...although not as much as pre-Palin.

Just as Biden helps Obama in PA, OH, and MI, Palin helps McCain in MT, CO, NM, and NV. Far more EC votes in the former three than the latter four, but keeping them red ain't no small feat at this juncture. (I think Biden helps Obama in FL but Palin helps McCain there, as well.)

psantillana,

Do I think Palin's "cute and spunky"? Of course I do--she is. Do I think Biden's "cute and spunky"? Of course I do--he is. Hell, I'd go shoot something with her, and have a good cry with him--or vice versa! So, that part of it's a wash.

This could always turn into another Bentsen/Quayle. Quayle made a fool out of himself, before and after his team won the election.

You have to give McCain's campaign credit these last few weeks for their ability to pull rabbits out their hat when they need to win the news cycle.  I must say I'm impressed.

But at some point they're going to run out of rabbits.  And then it will clear to everybody what I have always suspected......McCain is all hat and no rabbits.

Tep, that's a beautiful quote.

vanmurs, you should make a million off of "all hat and no rabbits." That rocks.

OK, I'll see your downs syndrome baby with uncle charlie and raise you a Biden's Mom. They're all cute and spunky.

I'm just saying she's unqualified to even be understudy, and you're saying nobody cares. Not you, just those wonderful fabulous heartland people, the real americans who decide this every four years, the ones to whom this country belongs and we just live here at their gun-toting pleasure. Ok. I'm no good at speculating on what these breathtaking salt of the earth unicorns think, so I'll leave that to you all. But I think it's crazy to pick her for that job. If this is a country of crazies - well then, we're screwed. Again.

Nah, we're not screwed. See, we've figured out we survive and prosper IN SPITE of our leaders, not BECAUSE of them.

As for Biden's Mom, yes, she's cute and spunky, too, but a bit too crinkly for my taste.

Also, I just tried to link your phrase "salt of the earth unicorns" with vanmurs "all hat and no rabbits" and something popped in my left ear, so I'd better no go any further.

You sound upset, psantillana. I suggest you drop by Blockbuster and rent "The Shawshank Redemption" for the evening. That'll put some 'tude in your mood.

Aw! You remembered how much I hate that foul movie! I'm touched. But this evening I'm going to see Dan Clowes show up at a comic book store. Ghost World - now there's a feelgood movie!

Bill Yard:  How often does that happen?

Nine Presidents, out of 42 have left office (8 died, one was a crook and resigned).  9/42= 21%  More than one in five Vice Presidents have had to take office as President.   That's certainly a high enough percentage that it very much matters if the Veep is ready for the job.

williamyard-

Thanks for the kind words.

Crock, thanks for the data. I didn't realize the % was so high. More folks should be aware of that, it sez here.

All things considered (gee, snappy phrase; somebody should name a radio program that), I think despite all the random demographic twitches, the Biden/Palin gravitas ratio gives this round to the Dems. Too many ways to sell Biden (and hence Obama's judgment in picking him) without even mentioning Palin.

Yard. On the face of it I would have to agree with your gravitas quotient. But then I also believe that it is likely most folks in the Dem party are setting themselves up for a surprise if she doesn't accommodate airhead lightweight expectations. I don't know any more than y'alls. Only  what I catch here and there. I'm sure that will change. She handled herself quite well in Dayton. Aesthetically speaking her voice could be a tad lower in pitch but beyond that she introduced herself with poise and an attractive confidence. Like I say, I think it will be a mistake to underestimate this woman.

A tough bimbo who has five kids and manages to get elected Alaska governor. You call that a weak candidate?!

I certainly don't want Republicans to win, but this VP selection is very smart. It won't take Hillary's voters, but it surely will energize the conservatives. Palin is very conservative AND she's also nice to look at. You think conservatives don't like sexy women?! Oh yes they do. That's why they listen to country music - which, before being patriotic, is often sung by long-haired beauties and is all about fair girls, forbidden loves, tons of charming affairs and so on.

These are strong enough qualifications in a country were Ronald Reagan became president. Well, she's about as intelligent and substantial as Reagan -a man fond of astrologers- while she also looks great on TV and pictures. In a country where actors and other entertainment figures are taken seriously, the qualifications bar is so low that she passes with flying colors. She is the perfect VP pick. Biden might be well advised to prepare very carefully.