Let's consider your argument for a second:  Assuming that the Time poll is right and McCain now has an advantage in managing the Iraq war, do the data show how prominent will figure in the hierarchy of issues?  Perhaps we're seeing an emerging policy consensus that's deflating the salience of the war and making public opinion on security issues revert to the mean, giving the Republican the edge.  But if foreign policy is less of a factor, how will McCain do with the economy at #1?

Furthermore, I'm not seeing from your post how public opinion, which is overwhelmingly sour on the whole concept of the war, doesn't still benefit the candidate who says the war was a mistake in the first place.

And if some calamity should strike Iraq and the war becomes the big issue again, will the public want to continue an indefinite presence or favor a quicker withdrawal.  Either way, the issue landscape still benefits Obama, but let's see what the poll trending shows.

Maliki's endorsement (of the Obama Timetable) helps Obama provided that Obama makes an issue out of it, which they may have decided not to do until they square off on the topic during a debate.  That doesn't mean you're wrong Michael, yes having long-term occupation off the table does help McCain, but having him have to admit that even the Prime Minister of Iraq disagrees with him and his fear-mongering "Obama will lose the war" crap hurts him a lot more than having the issue off the table helps him.

Of course if the Obama Campaign doesn't make an issue out of it and McCain manages to finesse the topic, you'd be right.  But I hope they know a game-changing zinger when they see one, even if they don't start shooting right away like McCain's side does.

Shrewdest Crowley post of the year. This is progress.

Iraq doesn't help Obama. If he's to pull this out, he's going to have to do it on the economy, shtoopid, by winning over the Democrats who defected to Bush in 2004, also 2000. Hint: they're not all blue collar or "bitter." Some of them, perhaps most, are educated and simply unimpressed with Obama's leadership credentials.

"If he's to pull this out..."

Not saying the substance of your post vis a vie Iraq/economy is wrong, but your repeated characterization of the Obama campaign as behind in the race, in trouble, etc and characterization of the voting public as unimpressed with Obama and his credentials flies in the face of the available evidence.

Obama is quite clearly ahead in this race.  Maybe he's not as far ahead as you think he SHOULD be, but that case is impossible to make without resorting to pseudoscience.  Such claims are unfalsifiable rubbish.  

If you're truly as confident about your idiosincratic read of the state of the race as you seem to be, you should be making a big buy of McCain futures on intrade.  Obama's numbers have softened a little over recent weeks, but he's still a 60/40 favorite.

Thanks for the tip, walto. Drinks on me if I'm ever down Sydney way.

Michael Crowley is the sole remainder on these blogs of the independence and even-handed detection of bullshit that once made TNR interesting, provocative, and unique. Everyone else here posts like a PR flack for Obama.

Obama's emphasis on renewable fuels over drilling will not help him with the economy issue either. I just read an interesting criticism of Obama from Roy Innis of CORE. He faults Obama for making climate change his biggest issue facing black America. "Not child welfare mothers raising illegitimate children, and turning out kids who can't read or do math. Not intolerable unemploymeny among black males. Not uneducated youthd suited for gangs but not jobs. Climate change."

He goes on to excoriate the Democrats who have a "fear and loathing for oil, natural gas coal and nuclear". Amen.

Assuming of course that the average voter has been focussed on the issues, that s/he has paid attention to Maliki's "endorsement", that s/he has made the connection - not evident to this stupid observer, but still - that "we will get out any way, so there is no difference on timetable between the two", that McCain's "military experience" - as in, crashing four planes before combat, crashing a fifth during combat and spending five years in a torture camp - actually equips him better to make judgements about the how and when of disengagement, that ...

On the basis of this trail of assumption, and startign from Tep's General Starting Point (TGSP, for short and future reference) that whatever Obama does is wrong and he has no idea about anything, then Michael is right, insightful, even-handed, etc.

As a disclaimer, I did not jump up for joy when the Maliki "endorsement" came; I have never put stock in any of the poll numbers, up or down, over the past two months; and while I think General Clark - you know, the war commander - was right in his critisim of the relevance of McCain's record, I think the issue may not be broached in the general election.  And ... as Tep is to "The Wonder Boy" trope, so am I to the "Polls Mean Nothing Now" idea.

The real issue is that a large majority in the US want the Republicans out of power as a reward for the achievements of the Bush administration.  However, the Democrats have decided to make almost sure victory into a test of the power of bigotry.  We may get a Congress with a large democrat majority and McCain continuing the imperial presidency.