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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
04.08.2008
Why Kaine Over Sebelius?

 

 

Everywhere you look these days it's Tim Kaine, Tim Kaine, Tim Kaine. The Virginia governor has emerged as the "change"-oriented veep choice for Obama. But if we're talking about outside-of-Washington options, why have we forgotten all about Kansas guv Kathleen Sebelius? Has the objection of some--I suspect more like a very vocal few--Hillary supporters to promoting any political woman besides Hillary really dimmed Sebelius's chances?

Anatomy aside, she's just more impressive:

Sebelius first won her governorship in an upset; Kaine had his office more or less bequeathed to him by the outrageously popular Democratic superhero Mark Warner. Sebelius has been governor for six years; Kaine has only three years' top-executive experience. Sebelius co-opted Republicans in her state, shrewdly manipulating the Kansas GOP's internal divisions and even persuading one of its recent chairmen to switch parties and run with her in 2006; Kaine's struggle to control the stubborn Virginia GOP has culminated in a bitter, unproductive battle over transportation. Sebelius balanced Kansas's budget in her first year in office by aggressively routing out administrative waste; while it's not fair to blame Kaine for the general economic slowdown, he doesn't have an achievement on this order he can point to, and Virginia faces a budget shortfall in 2009. Sebelius was one of Time's five best governors of 2005; uber-guru of Virginia politics Larry Sabato wrote last week that "having studied the records of the dozen most recent governors, I would characterize Kaine's term to this point as belonging to the bottom quartile."

Okay, Sebelius bombed her State of the Union response--but so did Kaine!

Don't get me wrong--I like Tim Kaine fine. He was especially good in the aftermath of the Virginia Tech shooting. But Sebelius is the Democratic star in her state, and her particular way of handling Kansas Republicans seems like a model for the sort of political strategy Obama wants to adopt. Kaine is, basically, a no-more-than-fine replacement for Warner (who was another Time best governor, incidentally). Sometimes I wonder if people are actually subconsciously pining for Warner when they champion Kaine for veep.

So far as I can tell, Kaine's advantages over Sebelius consist of these: his swing-state residency (not useless, but I thought consensus is that picking veeps for their regional influence is so last century), his faith (he's Roman Catholic), and his Y chromosome.

Update: Several readers point out Sebelius is also Catholic. 

--Eve Fairbanks

Posted: Monday, August 04, 2008 12:19 PM with 30 comment(s)

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kyoung said:

Her Bishop and communion--see, some other political commentator (in The Atlantic, I think) last week.

August 4, 2008 1:14 PM

FWright said:

Sebelius is also Roman Catholic.

I don't get the either of Kaine as more than adequate either.

August 4, 2008 1:15 PM

miceelf said:

I find the perversity of the putative feminist attempts to sabotage a female potential veep who has actually bled for choice to be very telling. I really hope it's Sibelius, if for no other reason than to stick it to the unconsolable hardliners

August 4, 2008 1:25 PM

Rhubarbs said:

Why Kaine over Sebelius? Because when you say "Obama-Kaine," the last two syllables are pronounced "McCain," giving Obama an important edge in the critical confused-person vote. Some McCain-leaning confused voters will vote for Obama-Kaine. This is especially important in former Confederate states, where the easily confused form a significant segment of the voting public.

The danger is that Obama-leaning confused voters will accidentally vote for McCain instead of Obama-Kaine, or perhaps assume that John McCain must be related to (or perhaps the proper name of) this Obuh McCain fellow they've heard so much about. The risk of a backfire is always high when courting easily confused voters.

August 4, 2008 1:39 PM

lymon1 said:

I don't think either of them are the best qualified or make a good pick (Biden has downsides, but he's so unquestionably ready to step into the Presidency that in my opinion he towers over another young pol, especially one with no foreign policy experience), and I do kinda get that picking Sibelius is a bit of an undeserved insult to Hillary Clinton, but that pales to other considerations: If Obama really has this great raport with Sibelius, he should go with his gut and pick her.  

August 4, 2008 1:50 PM

TammyA said:

Because Sebelius is a woman without foreign policy or national security cred.  That's why she's not gonna be the pick.  If she had experience there, she'd be a serious contender, I believe.  While Sebelius has lots of positives, like the others, and peeps have been saying a woman on board will draw voters to participate/endorse a great moment in history, the truth is that her contribution would be minimum an d likely an attempt to secure women voters.  They will likely end up voting Democratic anyway.  We always do and one day I hope that changes.  But today, Sebelius doesn't help the still-bitter Clinton voters.  In fact, there have been numerous columns recently arguing quite convincingly that Obama picking her might do the opposite.  I agree with you Miccelf, I'd like to see her on the ticket too, but I just don't think it's gonna happen for the reasons I list.  I hope I'm wrong.  

August 4, 2008 2:12 PM

virginiacentrist said:

Picking Sebelius would be a great stick in the eye for the Clintons.  Since they're amoral cretins and completely deserve it, I'm in full support of this move. She's way more qualified than Hillary Clinton, and hasn't lied about facing sniper fire to my knowledge.

Picking Kaine? Does that even pass the laugh test? No, it doesn't. Kaine's a nice guy - I love Tim Kaine - but give me a break. I'm not one who thinks Obama is any more arrogant than the next guy,  but that's an arrogant pick right there. It's a bit thumb in the eye to most of us who have argued that Obama's lack of experience will be well-covered by some steady appointments.

Ben Smith put it best in a post last week titled: "KAINE?!?!?!"

August 4, 2008 2:30 PM

virginiacentrist said:

Oh and let me add: Kaine doesn't add anything in Virginia. Kaine has been a low profile governor. We have off year elections in Virginia (odd years - 2001/2005/2009/etc). That means that many "federal election" voters are completely out of tune with state politics. Since Kaine has been low profile, most of these voters have barely heard of him. These are the types of voters who would be swayed by Mark Warner (either because they confuse him with John Warner or because they've heard good things). But a low profile figure like Kaine isn't going to push them one way or the other. Maybe some VA Tech parents like him? That's got to be the thinking...I dunno....

It just seems so obvious to me that a Kaine choice for VP would create tons of mediocre press nationally and tons of mediocre to bad press in the state of Virginia as columnists wondered what the heck Obama was thinking.

PS: Mark Warner was a GREAT governor. He raised taxes and maintained high approval ratings because people trusted him to put that money to real programs. But I'm convinced that his approval polls are inflated because people confuse him with John Warner.

August 4, 2008 2:38 PM

TammyA said:

Virginia.  Why still so bitter over the Clintons?  Get over it.  

August 4, 2008 2:55 PM

mpatrickhendri said:

Rhu,

I have to confess, you're my favorite TNR'er. Hands down, excepting Billy Yard. So, except for Bill, you're my favorite. In any event, Obama needs somebody nasty, somebody that knows how to throw a punch with conviction, I can think of at least two. One is from Virgina, the other from Dela "where?" Neither is named Tim.

August 4, 2008 3:02 PM

timteeter said:

Moot point.  $20 says it's Biden or Bayh.

August 4, 2008 3:23 PM

virginiacentrist said:

TammyA -

Sorry, but I just watched Bill Clinton's petulant interview on Good Morning America and was reminded of them. As long as their sphere of influence continues to simultaneously scream "SEXIST CONSPIRACY AGAINST HILLARY!" while trying to shoot down a highly qualified female VP candidate, Kathleen Sebelius, just out of spite, then they'll continue to grate on my nerves.

August 4, 2008 3:27 PM

GSpinks said:

i hate to say it, but I'm not 100% convinced that Clinton isn't on Obama's short list.

I think Sebelius has a lot of good stuff to offer, and may be ready to make her own bid in no more than 2 cycles, which I think makes her an even better prospect.

But, when popular democratic opinion is as closely divided between 2 nominees as it was this year, both with fully energized demographics, and with trivial differences in policy positions, one cannot deny the power of a unity ticket.

Of course, the rivalry was quite bitter, and I'm not sure there is enough good will left in Bill to allow for such an event, but still...

August 4, 2008 4:13 PM

Wandreycer1 said:

Eve - post of the day for "anatomy aside" alone.

Bill just proves every day how lucky we are he's back to his foundation work.  I

August 4, 2008 5:53 PM

tomeg said:

For what it''s worth, i.e. not much, Obama should pick Hillary. It would be daring, counter-ubersmart, and it would give Democrats two of the best mouths in the biz. Clinton is a great fighter, and she'd shore up Obama's Democratic Party creds, which are a little light and ephemeral today.

Obama/Clinton. DYNAMITE.

August 5, 2008 12:14 AM

tomeg said:

Hillary could tell Bill to stay out of it. Then he could fly or die on his own.

August 5, 2008 12:17 AM

ironyroad said:

Obama needs to pick someone who's reasonably acceptable in a broad sense, a good fighter, and who he gets on with on a basic personal level.  Then, immediately following that, he needs to signal clearly that HRC will be an important person in his administration (Sec of Defense would  be a great first) and a crucial part of the whole.

Me, I still hanker after Jim Webb or Joe Biden -- JW would be able to aim for the testicles of the creepy Republican jingoism-mongers, while JB would reduce any McCain running mate to a pool of sweat on the studio floor during the VP debate.

August 5, 2008 12:47 AM

simon greenwood said:

kyoung: the article on Kaine and Sebelius' Catholicism was here on TNR, actually.  In case anyone here missed it, it's worth reading:

www.tnr.com/.../story.html

August 5, 2008 1:31 AM

bmalin said:

I've been saying Sebelius since early January when the Capital Gang first started discussing it on Meet the Press.  Her resume is longer than her 6 years as Gov. (as is Kaines), but she brings some real experince and balance to the ticket as well as campaign asset.  She won't turn Kansas blue, but she will boost Obama's chances in MS and CO as well as pull McCain dollars to KS and OK.

I think she should be drawing Hillary supports in because of who she is.  If she doesn't how can Hillary say that her run wasn't just about her?

August 5, 2008 7:53 AM

tomasagee said:

Say these quickly:

Obama-Dodd

Obama-Kaine

Obama-Bayh

Now try this:

Obama-Sebelius

August 5, 2008 9:53 AM

Pillbug said:

Obama-Dodd --> sounds like a certain Iranian pitbull.

August 5, 2008 1:07 PM

lestatdelc said:

Why is anyone even considering Kaine at all? He is anti=choice which makes him a non-starter as a VP pick. If he were pro-choice I would think he would be a great V choice, but having an anti-choice person one heartbeat away from deciding the next Supreme Court makes Kaine a non-starter.

August 5, 2008 1:37 PM

wagonjak said:

They're talking at other ProgBlog sites that the VP pick will be Evan Bayh. Bayh is the same kind of wimpy Dem as Daschle and Kerry...he's afraid to make any bold statements or attack the Republicans for the degenerate corporatists they are...

I'm hoping for a real scrapper who will actually take it to McKrusty, not another wimpy Dem who will further damage the brand...and play right into the right-wing playbook!

August 5, 2008 2:06 PM

GSpinks said:

"I'm hoping for a real scrapper who will actually take it to McKrusty, not another wimpy Dem who will further damage the brand"

...like Clinton?

August 5, 2008 3:22 PM

psantillana said:

tomeg, Bill will never ever ever ever ever stay out of it. Ever.

August 5, 2008 3:39 PM

cspencef said:

"If Obama really has this great raport with Sibelius, he should go with his gut and pick her."

lymon, I really suspect that the one Obama has this great rapport with is Kaine, which is why he may have a leg up.  

August 5, 2008 5:28 PM

RobtlFlax said:

Tim Kaine's selection as VP would be a disaster for Virginia.  It would give the GOP a tremendous edge in  the next state wide election and likely door correcting the GOP misreapportionment.  But he has tried to confront the GOP irredentists who are now in gradual decline in Virginia.

August 6, 2008 9:56 AM

thesimulacra said:

I'm really kind of astonished at how many times I've read Clinton supporters (or phony Clinton supporters as portrayed by GOP plants) say that if he "is going to pick a woman" (as if that's the only criteria), then he has to pick Clinton.  Why?  Sebelius has been an elected official longer than Clinton.  She has served in an executive position.  She has accomplished more in her time as Insurance Commissioner and Governor of Kansas (threw out insurance industry special interests, balanced the budget, vetoed anti-gay marriage amendments and anti-abortion legislation) than Clinton has as Senator for New York (uhh...?).  The only thing people seem to latch on to is this phantom vice presidency they think she served as First Lady when the only thing she ever initiated during that time was a universal healthcare program that failed to pass even in a Democratic Congress.

Can anyone give an actual, specific reason why Hillary Clinton would make a better president than Kathleen Sebelius?

August 7, 2008 12:34 PM

johnchch said:

I think people are being too hard on Tim Kaine.   You can't credit his win in 2005 to Mark Warner alone.  Warner may have helped, but Kaine is a very effective campaigner, a better one in fact than Sebelius.  Kaine really knows how to take on the Republicans without being arrogant or devisive.   He has a great personality.  He's fiscally responsible.  Under Kaine's watch, Virginia has still been ranked one of the best run states in the nation.  The Republicans in the legislature have been out to get Kaine, not wanting to hand any victories as they did with Warner.   Therefore, Kaine has few major legislative accomplishments.  Nevertheless, Kaine was an early and enthusiastic supporter of Obama before it was fashionable to be one.  Most big name politicians jumped on the the HIllary Clinton bandwagon.  Tim Kaine is an underrated politician.  He has the intellect, the personality, and the discipline to really help Obama nationally in the campaign and as vice-president.  So he doesn't have foreign policy experience.  Obama will have his foreign policy advisors.  Since when is it a requirement that the vice-president be an expert on such matters if the president isn't?  In terms of law and policy, Kaine is basically pro-choice, despite his religious views.  He supports some minor restrictions on abortion, but he does NOT think Roe v. Wade should be overturned and he does not believe criminalizing abortion is the answer.  The bottom line is this: if not Kaine, then who?  Bayh is not a good campaigner and his elevation to the vice-presidency gives the Republicans a Senate seat.  He supported the Iraq War.  He wimped out on his bid for the presidency.  He's boring.   If it is Sebelius, the question is, should the Democratic ticket be led by an African American and a woman?  Women and minorities are solidly behind Obama.  White men are not.  There's also the insult to Hillary Clinton supporters.  Kaine is the best overall choice.  

August 8, 2008 10:59 AM

The Stump said:

DES MOINES - Visiting a friend in Iowa on my way out to Denver, I saw Kathleen Sebelius give an up-with

August 21, 2008 9:17 PM