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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
22.07.2008
Poll Position, Cont'd

I'm not going to get into the habit of daily poll updates (God help me!), but after I noted yesterday that Obama barely leads in Gallup and Rasmussen, I saw that he'd jumped three points in Monday's Gallup poll to a six-point lead. So I was going to flag that result here as a corrective to my point. But now I see that Rasmussen has narrowed to a tie. So, go figure. This afternoon's Gallup number should be interesting and I'll update when I see it.

P.S. While we're on the topic, a little-noted PPP poll released yesterday shows Obama holding an eight-point lead in Ohio. (Presumably Mark Penn would argue that Hillary would be ahead by sixteen?)

--Michael Crowley

Posted: Tuesday, July 22, 2008 9:49 AM with 3 comment(s)

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jobeek2 said:

Talking about daily poll updates, why isn't Nate Silver blogging on the Stump instead of the Plank? His analyses of the current polls are wholly focused on the elections, so it would make more sense to find them on this blog -- the central TNR blog on the elections after all. And the way he analyses polls would definitely benefit this blog. He analyses them far more systematically than these one-off posts do, and with a keen sense of the importance and also relativity of respective individual poll results. He's able to take margins of error into account properly as well as review polls in meaningful comparison with previous iterations of the same poll and contemporary other polls. He also avoids the trap of picking up only on the most conspicuous polls while missing the overall picture of the total of polls.

Silver's arrival at TNR certainly meant a big improvement compared to the somewhat haphazard way polls have been covered here otherwise, in mostly ad hoc responses to some striking result or other. He'd be perfect for daily poll updates on the Stump! And journalists in general, hardly just here, should all be enrolled in some kind of regular seminars by people like Charles Franklin or Nate Silver.

July 22, 2008 10:42 AM

rozenson said:

Silver's insight is very, well, insightful. On that count I agree with you, jobeek2. However, it's not really that necessary that he post on The Stump. TNR staffers other than Michael and Noam are free to post on The Plank about the election, so why not Nate? I'm not saying I'm opposed on moral grounds to having him post on The Stump, I just don't see the point. He tends to post at the end of the day anyway, when traffic on The Plank is lower and his visibility is as good as ever.

July 22, 2008 12:33 PM

jobeek2 said:

It just seems weird to have these random and usually somewhat inept stabs at polling analysis here on the elections blog, when you have an expert on the subject matter posting on the other blog. Is it vanity, or what rationale is there behind that?

July 22, 2008 7:37 PM