The Veep Timetable

21.07.2008

The Veep Timetable

Mulling it over, First Read writes:

Turning back home, all indications are pointing to Obama's veep pick getting announced in the 10-day window after he gets back from Europe and before the Olympics. (Maybe, given the calendar, we're stating the obvious at this point, but everything is about timetables in the Obama campaign, right?)

These guys are better-sourced than I am, and generally more familiar with how campaigns think this stuff through, so I suspect they're right. But I guess I don't see the unassailable logic of announcing the pick before the Olympics. Any PR bump will get stepped on by the games (unless they announce very soon after Obama gets back). Worse, the Olympic dark period will give enterprising reporters 2-3 uninterrupted weeks to look for skeletons in the veep nominee's closet, with which they'll pummel him/her at the convention.

Why not just save the announcement for, say, the first night in Denver? (The Olympics end the day before.) It'll get everyone to tune in, provide a big momentum boost at the outset, and maybe drown out the lurid interest in the Obama-Clinton soap opera.

Then again, maybe the Clintons would interpret that as a huge diss, which you'd prefer to avoid.

--Noam Scheiber

Posted: Monday, July 21, 2008 11:23 AM with 3 comment(s)

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michael said:

1. I agree with your analysis. A pre-Olympics announcement offers too many negatives and too few positives.

2. Why hurry? Obama has a deeper pool of talent than McCain and the opposition would prefer to react to the Obama's. The more diverse Obama list means McCain needs more time as they can't really match up, person for person, why allow McCain more rather than less time to counter the Obama pick?

3. Obama is still leading, the tour shouldn't hurt and they may wish to pause as decide how this changes the dynamics. Foreign policy, leadership, Commander in Chief may all need less attention next week or in two months. Jeeze, Bush may be setting up his exit on Obama's plan for Iraq, Afghanistan and Iran. Forget the Iraqi endorsement, Bush may provide a de-facto repudiation of McCain's strategy before the election.

3. Regarding the Olympics? Yes, a pre Olympic announcement may get buried but he does stand a chance of breaking through the blackout with teases, leaks and the hint of a choice may be the best chance of getting press.

4. Finally, my contention is the choice was narrowed to 3-4 at the most, long ago. Barack, Michelle and a few at the top knew all were fit. They would base the final decision on specific needs but wait to see what remained late in the game and what weaknesses demanded the correct match.

5. Obama probably has less of a risk of making the wrong or bad choice while McCain's list appears to hold one or two negatives that to have the potential to hurt with the base or limit his move to the center. After seeing an early Obama choice he'll be able to see who on his list looks less bad in comparison.

Anyone for sports? McCain is behind, in foul trouble and both his offense and defense is getting shredded. McCain needs to use his dwindling time-outs and is hoping Obama can give him a breather by burning a few of his. Olympics or not, and early announcement isn't necessary as long as Obama his leading and it will only allow McCain to take a deep breath, pause and use the time to come up with the best counter to Obama's 'early choice'.

The upside to Obama choosing early is someone can get to work and share the weight. But most of his surrogates are on message so the right now he benefits from multiple hod-carriers. Imagine, had Obama gone on tour with a choice in the bag? Would it have helped or is he better off going for all the credit available. Sorry, I don't think Obama's choice will be little more than a relief that he didn't screw up. I see no sense of urgency to get that behind him.

July 21, 2008 1:01 PM

prnoonan said:

Guys, I hate to break it to you, but nobody gives a shit about the Olympics anymore. The Cold War made the Games more popular and 96 was in the US. It's been downhill ever since. I can see why the network covering the Games (NBC) goes wall-to-wall, but why would the others? Is Obama's VP selection really not going to get a lot of play because Thailand just picked up the Gold in Badminton, some Kenyan guy won the 2000m race, and an under-developed American girl gets a 9.4 in the Vault?

Maybe don't announce VP on the first or last day, but otherwise who cares.

July 21, 2008 1:13 PM

stgla said:

Maybe announce who the VP won't be (Clinton) and leave the real announcement for Denver. I can't see what the advantage is to ending to the guessing game unless they can't hide it anymore (too many sightings of Governor Sebelius in Chicago, for example).

July 21, 2008 1:22 PM