Noam--

Specifically, why don't you think Powell would endorse Obama? Or did you mean McCain? It's not clear here.

ZACummings

Secretary Powell or General Powell may not endorse Barack.  It depends whether the conscience of Citizen Powell concludes his endorsement is necessary and whether Obama can satisfy Powell completely.

Yes, I believe Powell is on the verge of deciding to vote for Obama and that may be a last minute admission.  Obama and Powell converge on most policy positions so it's less important who has been speaking to Powell (he's given all candidates the opportunity) and more significant to listen and read what Powell expects from the next administration.  

As I've written, I believe Powell might have had influence on Obama's phrasing or emphasis that he would heed the advice of the commanders in theater as he proceeds with the withdrawal from Iraq. As early as last Spring Powell the General expressed his discomfort with any plan that was so rigid it compromised the greater good of an exit.

Any discussion with McCain would have indicated that friend or not, Powell found his domestic and foreign policy views to be more in conflict with all that Powell has stated for the record. No, it isn't necessary to know what Powell said in private and both campaigns can compare their views with Powell's positions.

In that regard there isn't as much mystery about what Powell prefers and the backstory is more public than private meetings suggest. But after his experience as Secretary of State, Powell won't allow any influence he has to be used and abused. An endorsement of Obama would include specific and explicit recognition that Obama recognizes Powell's concerns as much as it is a stamp of approval from Powell. That would be impossible for McCain and it will be interesting to see if Barack is willing to make what many will interpret as a concession to the military when that is sure to be off putting to the far left.

While it may be more obvious that Powell can help Obama? Powell realizes that his legacy would only improve if he could claim an administration actually listened to him. He can't assert that after his tour with Bush and McCain won't champion Powell's ideals either.  

Bold or not, Powell would do well to support Obama for their mutual interests. But that will only happen if Powell has the confidence that Obama is seeking more than a superficial 'big name' on his list. He's been down that road before.

Maybe this goes without saying but "votes for but does not endorse" = endorse unless the voter does not disclose his vote.

My suspicion would be that Powell's main interest would be in influencing policy, something he didn't get to do enough when Reagan and the Bush's kept him around.  If Obama gives Powell a fair hearing it will buy some good will, which may come in handy some other time, if not for an endorsement.

Powell didn't endorse Kerry over Bush in 2004  If he  is going to endorse Obama over McCain, what could be a reason?

Well, jacobtl, I'm not sure I think that Powell would publically endorse Obama, but I think the reason he didn't endorse Kerry had more to do with his relationship to Bush than to Kerry.  Powell doesn't seem like the type of person to want to make waves with a huge political gesture, something that a former Secretary of State who had a very public beef with other members of the administration endorsing his former boss's and sitting commander-in-chief's rival would certainly be.  With McCain, Powell wouldn't have the problem of publicly endorsing his former boss's political opponent.

I think Powell is finished with politics period. I would bet a quarter that he endorses no one and I have no idea what he'll do in the privacy of the voting booth. My guess? He pull for McCain.

I rather doubt though that he will ever support another pendejo Bush.  The man is cautious but he ain't stupid...

Reading Woodward, I would bet that Powell hates Cheney more than Bush.  

Powell is the ultimate Beltway careerist. Every move in his rise can be attributed to adroit positioning of himself so as to not offend the losing side while making himself usefult o the winning side in DoD and nat-security establishment battles.

To put it mildly, Powell doesn't exactly embellish a message of "change" or reform of the Beltway culture.

Noam, I think my earlier post is close to your 1.) in your second shot.  But I don't think Powell would make a move unless Obama looks secure to take it.

In 2)., I'm not sure that "doesn't want to piss off some of his Republican friends" is as many people who were in that group in '00 or '04.  Plus, plenty of his friends are less partisan (he wasn't locked to any GOP plank) and friends or not there are a more than a few Republicans whom he respects and will lay low if he defects.  As I wrote, his 'friends' weren't covering his back when he needed it so does he want to spend his last few years bein' loyal to people who have ideals he opposes?  With no serious future ahead? What would be better than to stand with a person who won't reject your advice and maybe even represent some of your more valued ideals.  

He still has a chance to be recognized and I doubt that will happen with the GOP plank.  With friends like them....

However, your claim of "I think Powell will vote" so good enough for Obama and conversely a shame on McCain. Regarding relative value to each? A difference without distinction...

It's more of a no-brainer & I'm surprised so many see it as a long shot...

Given the bitter feelings towards Powell on the part of some (antiwar activists, for example), I'm not exactly convinced that a Powell endorsement would be a good thing for Obama.  Presumably it could tick off another chunk of his base, and it's doubtful to me he could actually bring along many Republicans after going off message in his post-administration years.  Not a useful risk, it seems to me.

Powell has dropped at least two public hints that he'll keep more than an open mind about Obama.

Whether he would really endorse or join, I can't say, but I'd guess it's pretty unlikely.  More likely, he's trying to put a little scare into McCain and the GOP so they'll show him more respect and deference.

Turncoats do not usually prosper.  Powell knows that.  He'll much more likely stay put.

Powell like Gore is trying to cash in as a general partner of Silicon Valley's ur-VCs, Kleiner Perkins-- which, not coincidentally, is making major bets on green technology now, investments whose risk-return profile is immeasurably aided by a certain general partner's very public advocacy of , oh, $3 TRILLION in federal funds for such technologies. Nice.

Assuming Powell shares Gore's breathtaking cynicism, is there really any likelihood that he would take any real risks in endorsing Obama?

Assuming, that is, that he and his partners at KP don't have a very strong financial payoff awaiting them from an Obama administration....