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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
01.07.2008
Obama's Ricochet Pander

No doubt the Obama campaign is aggressively courting evangelicals because it thinks it can erode the GOP's traditional dominance there. If Obama can cut the 80-20 Bush-Kerry split among evangelical voters to 60-40--something an evangelical PR-man connected to Franklin Graham suggests is possible in today's Times--then he will almost certainly win the election.

But there's something about the campaign's evangelical outreach that makes me think there's a bit of a ricochet pander at work here, too. For those unfamiliar with the term, it came into being in 2000 to describe Bush's efforts to win over moderate white suburbanites by courting black voters, the overwhelming majority of whom were going to oppose him. (I think my colleague Michelle Cottle actually introduced the term into the popular discourse; I know she wrote one of the first pieces laying out the strategy.)

For the Obama campaign, I'd guess the targets of the ricochet are moderate, downscale whites who aren't evangelicals themselves--and probably not even especially religious--but for whom Obama's rapport with white evangelicals might be reassuring, especially amid all the false rumors of his secret Muslim identity.

Interestingly, the Obama campaign even talks about their evangelical efforts the way the Bushies talked about their African-American outreach--understated, cautiously-optimistic, and with special emphasis on the attributes the ricochet target might find appealing. To wit:  

Joshua DuBois, director of religious affairs for the Obama campaign, said that the campaign expected resistance from a large part of the evangelical community, but that millions of faith voters were persuadable.

“We’re not going to convince everybody,” said Mr. DuBois, 25, a former associate pastor of a Pentecostal Assemblies of God church in Massachusetts. “The most committed pro-lifers probably won’t vote for him. But others will be open to him because they see he’s a man of integrity, a person of faith who listens to and understands people of all religious backgrounds.”

Of course, I'm not sure how you'd distinguish this from a first-order strategy of poaching evangelicals. But, then, you don't have to, since, unlike the Bushies, Team Obama has a real shot at first-order success, too.

P.S. Commenter dbhuff takes issue with the word "pander" here, since there's no evidence Obama is being insincere in courting evangelicals. I completely agree--I was just leaning on a phrase already in circulation. Why don't we just call it Obama's "ricochet bonus," since any benefit he accrues among non-evangelicals would come on top of the benefits of winning over evangelicals.  

--Noam Scheiber

Posted: Tuesday, July 01, 2008 8:34 AM with 9 comment(s)

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dbhuff said:

Well, first, pander implies something insincere, while I would argue that Obama has been railing against the Rights dominance of the evangelical vote for years, and talking about his own faith for that long. It happens that evangelicals are a bit disillusioned, and their old war horses (Dobson, et. al.) are being put to pasture so he has an unusual confluence to change the electoral situation, sort of like what Rove did with W. Any 'ricochet' I think would in fact be to a group that Obama is overtly courting, so not sure you can call it this. The last sentence is telling, rocochet pander refers to the cynical, highly unlikely of success effort that 'reflects well' (ricochets) on the panderer to a different group. But you could either say thats true of every outreach effort, or reserve it for the cynical ones like Bush's outreach to blacks.

July 1, 2008 9:37 AM

Noam Scheiber said:

yes, i agree. pander isn't quite right--i do think he's completely sincere. i was just appropriating a term.

July 1, 2008 9:56 AM

adaglas said:

Jeff Greenfield had an interesting take on this on Slate, whereby Obama's best bet may be simply to blunt the really zealous opposition, rather than necessarily win them over to his side.  www.slate.com/.../2194325

July 1, 2008 11:18 AM

purcellneil said:

Pandering just means telling people what they want to hear, because it helps you get their vote.  I'm sure Obama is truthful and sincere when he speaks to Evangelicals about his faith....but let's face it - he's telling them what they want to hear.  

And - if we were honest about it - wouldn't we agree that it probably isn't a good thing to campaign based on religion?  I mean - was it a good thing that Mitt Romney had to practically apologize for being a Mormon?  Isn't it a bad thing that these rumors about Obama being a Muslim are so damaging to him that people call it a "smear?"

I think Obama is smart enough to realize that religion is too deeply entangled with politics, and that it would be very good if we could tone it down.  But he's out there selling on the basis of religion anyway.  Because, telling people what they want to hear - even when you know you shouldn't -  works.

What is that, if not pandering?

Neil

July 1, 2008 12:06 PM

michael said:

  It may sound quaint or banal but ol' Saul said it decades ago, "...the ultimate key to acceptance by a community is respect for the dignity of the individual you're dealing with. If you feel smug or arrogant or condescending, he'll sense it right away, and you might as well take the next plane out. The first thing you've got to do in a community is listen, not talk, and learn to eat, sleep, breathe only one thing: the problems and aspirations of the community."

  I like the term 'ricochet' but the above attitude might need to account for inviting unintended targets into your line of fire even if an invitation wasn't sent.

 Or, is there an option? In this current age, no message is can be so focused that it won't be noticed or fanned so everyone will see-hear it.  Anything and everything one says better have a ring of sincerity and like it or not, candidates words will be judged. What I call the Genuine Scale is a standard which everyone will apply, not just those a candidate chooses.

  I doubt Obama is naive so blunting the opposition is in his arsenal.  But I don't think any candidate has the luxury of choosing targets let alone hoping a secondary group is listening. The challenge is to not appear that any group is too special (it won't be a secret).  But few people aren't attracted to those who listen and learn. With that attitude, everyone is a target.

July 1, 2008 12:09 PM

GSpinks said:

perhaps this is the truest (most effective) form of the phenomenon of "moving to the center during the general election"?

July 1, 2008 12:17 PM

janeistvan said:

I have a problem both with the use of the term "pander" and with the premise necessary to your piece that Obama obviously can't win over evangelicals.  I think that in order to make that assumption, you have to have a rather one dimensional view of the white evangelical community.

I don't know how many Jim Wallises and Rich Ciziks make up the evangelical community, but those are people who can clearly be won over to Obama's cause because the Democratic agenda is friendlier to the issues near and dear to their hearts like social justice, poverty, environmental stewardship and the Iraq war.  There have been some recent pieces detailing how younger evangelicals are more likely to tip toward the Wallis/Cizik orientation as oppose to the Dobson/God/Gays/Guns point of view.

July 1, 2008 12:46 PM

williamyard said:

I'm a little fuzzy on the ways and means (wheys and curds?) of "Ricochet Pander," but clearly it would make a great replacement name for Nancy Berkowitz, the freshly-hatched ingenue plucked from a New Jersey summer stock production of "Cat On A Hot Tin Roof" and now sitting doe-eyed beside her Hollywood agent's desk as he pitches her to the casting agent of a straight-to-DVD slasher flick.

So if you're kicking back one weekend night with an amusing little IPA and the remote, and the opening credits end with "and introducing Ricochet Pander," you read it here first.

July 1, 2008 6:02 PM

wagonjak said:

When progressives question Obama using stock attack Rethug phrases like "pander", it just helps the Republican attack machine "catapult the propaganda"!

I do agree that Obama's sharp turn to the right has me and other progressives worried about whether he's turning into just another typical pol and tarnishing the populist image he pushed during the primary battle.

I suggest you choose your words more carefully from now on.

July 2, 2008 12:22 PM