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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
18.06.2008
The Slam-Dunk Case For Pawlenty

I just wanted to post a quick supplement to my profile of Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, which appears online today. In the piece, I briefly assert that a McCain-Pawlenty ticket makes a ton of sense but generally leave the case implicit. Obviously I'd encourage you to read the piece and draw your own conclusions. But for those who prefer their dots connected, here's a more explicit, point-by-point explanation (with some additional nuggets that didn't make it into the piece):

1.) The limits of his ideology notwithstanding (see the piece for more on that), Pawlenty has genuine appeal among working-class voters, which could come in handy if the election turns into a contest for downscale Rust-Belters. In the bar scene I depict, I met several middle-aged and older women who described themselves as pro-Hillary Democrats who love Pawlenty and voted for him twice.

2.) Pawlenty is young (47) and vigorous--he runs marathons, plays lots of hockey--which would be a nice antidote to the graybeard at the top of the ticket.

3.) Pawlenty has a well-established, if somewhat superficial, maverick/reformist streak, a la McCain. He's a believer in global warming and has expended a lot of rhetoric (if not political capital) taking on oil and pharmaceutical companies. He'd reinforce McCain's appeal as a somewhat unorthodox Republican.

4.) Pawlenty is smart and extremely fluent in the details of domestic policy--something McCain can't come close to claiming, but which will be pretty critical in a campaign waged over health care, infrastructure, and energy.

5.) He is, at the same time, pretty well-liked among both supply-siders and social conservatives, many of whom are still skeptical of McCain. As governor, Pawlenty backed an anti-gay marriage amendment and signed a "right to know" law requiring doctors to explain the risks and alternatives to abortion. He also won points for repealing a set of graduation standards that conservatives claimed imposed liberal values on school children. On the fiscal side, he's generally cut taxes and spending over the course of his career, sometimes in large chunks.

6.) Pawlenty and McCain seem to be fond of one another personally, which is key since McCain has incredible difficulty faking affection or concealing dislike for people. As one former McCain aide told me: “If political circumstances forced him to pick a running mate with whom he wasn’t personally comfortable, he wouldn’t be able to hide that.” (One of the great McCain outbursts of all time came just after his endorsement of George W. Bush in  2000, in which he didn't actually use the word "endorse" until pressed by reporters. At that point, McCain started grousing, "I endorse Governor Bush, I endorse Governor Bush..." half a dozen times in rapid succession.)

7.) Relatedly, Pawlenty and McCain share a similar sensibility. They both have trouble-maker streaks (Charlie Weaver, Pawlenty’s first chief of staff as governor, cracked up telling me about the time the two of them were messing around with hockey paraphernalia and Pawlenty nearly broke Weaver's hand taking a shot on "goal"--a.k.a.,  fire place of the governor's reception room). And Pawlenty also shares McCain's sometimes bawdy sense of humor. (It was Pawlenty who briefly made news this summer singing his wife’s praises: "She loves football, she'll go to hockey games and, I jokingly say, 'Now, if I could only get her to have sex with me.'")

8.) Pawlenty was an early, loyal McCain backer--he came on board as the campaign's national co-chair back in January of 2007 and stuck with McCain through last summer's implosion. McCain is known to place a premium on loyalty.

9.) Pawlenty was twice elected governor (albeit narrowly, arguably with help from a third-party candidate) in a Democratic-leaning state. Few people I talked to thought he could carry Minnesota for McCain. But he could at least force Obama to spend time and money there, which would not be nothing.

As I say, it's a pretty compelling case. And, from everything I heard while reporting the piece, there's a decent chance it'll happen. As former Minnesota Congressman Vin Weber, a lobbyist/Washington-powerbroker with ties to both men, explained it to me: If you go through the clinical (and, in fairness, sometimes misleading) process of weighing pros and cons, “You’d say there are probably three or four people who have equally good shots of being on the ticket, and I think he’s in that top three or four.”

As for the major drawbacks with Pawlenty:

1.) Though no one really blames him for last summer's bridge collapse, the symbolism might not be great for a party struggling to overcome the taint of Hurricane Katrina and Iraq.

2.) He's had some contentious dealings with his state legislature, including a partial shutdown in 2005. Again, not the biggest deal in the world, but the symbolism could be tricky. (And, as commenter "Another Chris" points out, he resolved it by agreeing to a 75-cent "health impact fee" on packs of cigarettes, something that didn't exactly endear him to fiscal conservatives or working-class people.)

3.) He's been at the center of a few campaign-finance and corporate-crony-related scandals. None of them is particularly serious, as I explain in the piece. But for a candidate who's already struggled with the internal contradictions of running as Mr. Clean, they could give McCain pause.

--Noam Scheiber

Posted: Wednesday, June 18, 2008 12:55 PM with 14 comment(s)

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teplukhin2you said:

That's a pretty strong case, well made. I think it's pretty obvious that unless McCain nominates someone energetic, fresh, and under 50, he'll never offset Obama's glamour/Pepsi appeal. He has to take some risks here and put forth someone who's young, dynamic and strong.

If not Pawlenty, then Jindal. A Hail Mary pass? Yes. No other way McCain can win if gas is north of $4/gal and milk and meat prices are soaring.

June 18, 2008 1:21 PM

blackton said:

other drawback, two bland white guys on the ticket. Pawlenty isn't exactly an inspiring speaker, but at least he is better than McCain. I think people are likely to see him and just yawn. I think McCain has to go long and take a woman or a minority, get someone somewhere actually excited.

June 18, 2008 1:24 PM

dylanposer said:

What about his tepid response to Sen. Wellstone's death?  Won't that be something that can be used to rile the Pro-Hillary/Pro-Pawlenty types you mentioned?  I think it's something Al Franken even alludes to in one of his books.  

Hmm.  Then again, if they can use Pawlenty to sheer off Franken and his Fox News-degradating ways, then he might be able to regalvanize the supply sider/nat'l security base that Bush used.  Maybe not such a bad idea after all.

June 18, 2008 1:40 PM

WoodyBombay said:

Interesting juxtaposition, Pawlenty and Jindal.

Has Pawlenty ever exorcised demonic spirits out of a friend's body? Has he ever cast Satan out of an earthly vessel and back to the fiery pits of hell, where he belongs? I doubt it.

Advantage, Jindal.

June 18, 2008 1:58 PM

ackyri said:

If Pawlenty gets the nod, Coleman gets reelected.

Can we agree on that?

June 18, 2008 2:46 PM

Rhubarbs said:

Also, Pawlenty was a prime mover behind the brilliant 1990 gubernatorial campaign of Jon Grunseth. You might remember Grunseth as the guy who had to resign the GOP nomination days before the election after admitting that, yes, he did rather enjoy skinny-dipping with his daughter's teenage girlfriends. Grunseth was the original standard to which such recent GOP stars as Sens. Craig and Vitter have aspired. Combining Pawlenty's role in putting Grunseth forward with his status as head of the state where Craig was busted is almost too beautiful for words. From a "holy shit, what the hell is wrong with that political party" point of view.

He is a formidable choice for VP, though, despite his personal corruption and his unsavory political origins. I still think that an out-of-left-field choice, and/or a woman, is a better bet for McCain, such as the twofer Cathy McMorris-Rodgers, but of all the names everyone has heard of, Pawlenty is almost certainly Old Man Flopper's best bet.

June 18, 2008 3:03 PM

stgla said:

McCain/Pawlenty sounds like a sugary candy I would not let my child eat.

June 18, 2008 3:05 PM

dylanposer said:

Stgla wins.

June 18, 2008 3:34 PM

teplukhin2you said:

Grunseth sounds like the kind of pol we need more of. What's so bad about skinny dipping with girls?

June 18, 2008 4:19 PM

fougasseu said:

The numero uno Talk Radio screamer in Minnesota is Jason Lewis, an occasional sit-in for Limbaugh. He hates Pawlenty, sees him as that hated species, a RINO. Pawlenty would have tremendous appeal to moderates, independents and quite a few women. He has a great looking family, very much the midwestern hockey jock. When people start to dig, they'll find that his wife is ultra-conservative, very deep into the pro-life movement. Will voters care about the VP's wife....probably not. But Pawlenty's not as moderate as he portrays himself. He's simply learned what it takes to win in Minnesota.

June 18, 2008 7:31 PM

Rhubarbs said:

fougasseu, what it takes to win the governorship in Minnesota is simple: Don't be the Democrat. Democrats haven't won an election for governor in Minnesota since 1986.

The Minnesota GOP has become a radically rightwing party, more in line with Colorado Springs than Coon Rapids. So much so that the last time I visited, I saw Confederate flags on trucks with Minnesota plates -- something I had not seen in twenty years living in the state. (It was at that point that I gave up my lingering desire to move from Virginia back to Minnesota; if you can't escape the rightwing Confederate flag-waving, what the hell's the point of moving north?) The Pawlentys and their coterie are the people who tried to deny the GOP renomination to the wildly popular, successful Republican Governor Arne Carlson in 1994. Tim Pawlenty is the architect of the nutty rightwing takeover of the state GOP and the rapid cultural tilt of the state toward Southern cheap-grace Evangelical conservatism and away from its heritage of Northern hard-working Protestant progressivism.

In Minnesota, Pawlenty isn't _a_ hardcore rightwing ideologue. He's _the_ hardcore rightwing ideologue. He's the Newt Gingrich of Minnesota. He talks a good game, and he photographs well, but he must not be mistaken for any kind of moderate or independent.

June 19, 2008 11:43 AM

The Stump said:

Via FiveThirtyEight , I see this U.S. News item suggesting Pawlenty may now be the leading candidate

June 20, 2008 5:14 PM

The Stump said:

In honor of today's Washington Post front-pager suggesting a McCain VP announcement is imminent,

July 25, 2008 7:48 PM

UNCoRRELATED said:

Its been interesting listening to the running mate prognostications and the opinions of various pundits about why this person or that person should have the inside track. Of course, some of the advice is coming from the same people that...

July 30, 2008 4:56 PM