TNR BLOGS

July 04, 2009 | 11:58 AM
July 04, 2009 | 11:32 AM
July 04, 2009 | 8:16 AM

March 09, 2009 | 5:19 PM
March 09, 2009 | 5:16 PM
January 07, 2009 | 12:20 PM

July 01, 2009 | 10:33 PM
June 30, 2009 | 8:42 AM
June 29, 2009 | 9:09 AM

July 26, 2008 | 2:24 PM
July 23, 2008 | 1:55 PM
July 17, 2008 | 3:56 PM

July 03, 2009 | 10:13 PM
July 02, 2009 | 12:57 PM
July 01, 2009 | 7:02 PM
COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
03.06.2008
What Will She Do?

All sorts of contradictory smoke signals have been coming out of Clintonland in the past 24 to 48 hours. There have been credible indications that Hillary will drop out very soon--maybe later this week, maybe even tonight. Yet this morning's New York Daily News has her "seriously" considering a credentials committee fight. (Terry McAuliffe said on TV this morning he doesn't see that happening.) My sense is that Clinton is geniunely unsure about what to do, and that so few people really know her thinking we're hearing a lot of smoke and bluster--and maybe even efforts to sway her--from folks in her orbit but not really in the inner loop.

It is interesting, however, to see continued talk of a pause-and-pray-for-scandal option:

Another, according to senior Clinton advisers, is what they dubbed the "middle option," for Clinton to suspend her campaign, acknowledging that Obama has crossed the delegate threshold but keeping her options open until the convention in late August.

This would be difficult in the extreme to pull off. For the sake of party unity and her legacy Hillary is going to have to start publicly supporting Obama very soon. Doing that will be pretty awkward if she's merely "suspended" her campaign.  

--Michael Crowley

Posted: Tuesday, June 03, 2008 10:13 AM with 18 comment(s)

Comments

You must be logged-in to comment.

Not a subscriber? Click here to get a digital or print and digital subscription to The New Republic!

Crock1701 said:

Interesting, or depressing?

June 3, 2008 10:41 AM

timteeter said:

It is what I predicted she would do: suspend, not endorse, say Obama "appears" to be the "presumptive" nominee, keep her options open.  So far, I'm still batting 1.000

June 3, 2008 10:44 AM

KeenSally said:

The middle option is the Clinton way, no?

June 3, 2008 10:54 AM

BHLnyc said:

Word just in: Hillary to concede delegate loss tonight.

Developing...

June 3, 2008 11:18 AM

icarusr said:

And if HuffPo is correct, apparently not even "suspend", only stop campaigning - whatever that might mean - so as to give her more negotiating power.

All I can think of now is Katherine Hepburn (as Eleanor of Acquitaine) in "The Lion in Winter":  "What would you have me do, give in, give up, give out?" ... And Anthony Hopkins (as Richard Lionheart): "Mother, spiders get tangled in the webs you weave."

Except of course, Mrs. Clinton does it with so much less class and humour ...

June 3, 2008 11:20 AM

miceelf said:

The other possibility is that a lot of the confusion is coming from Bill, who wants to keep fighting. And some peopel may assume that he's speaking for her (which I suspect he isn't).

June 3, 2008 11:21 AM

BHLnyc said:

Breaking: Clinton campaign says AP report is wrong and she will NOT concede tonight.

June 3, 2008 11:31 AM

roidubouloi said:

I made the same prediction timteeter.  

June 3, 2008 11:51 AM

roidubouloi said:

What will happen is that Hillary's loyalists will start to desert her because they do not want to miss the Obama train.  At some point, before the convention, she will have to surrender in some manner or she will be left isolated, not so much politically as socially.  

The analogy of Teddy Kennedy is useful.  The difference is that Kennedy already had a social status that was essentially impregnable.  He was second generation wealth, there was the legacy of both JFK and RFK, rendered into myth by their assassinations.  Hillary is nouvelle.  She cannot afford to do what Kennedy did then without becoming a social leper, ESPECIALLY if Obama wins anyway as is likely.

Ironically, but being pyschologically incapable of letting go and accepting her status as a mere duchess, no longer a pretender to the throne, Hillary is making it much more difficult for herself.  But them, people are not entirely rational, are they?

June 3, 2008 11:55 AM

liberal reformer said:

It depends on what the meaning of "suspend" is.

June 3, 2008 11:59 AM

michael said:

" What Will She Do?"

Tell me what Hillary wants & then I'll tell you what she'll do.

June 3, 2008 12:00 PM

roidubouloi said:

She wants status, michael.  What do you conclude from that?

June 3, 2008 12:05 PM

roidubouloi said:

As long as the campaign continued, however, futile, Hillary had the status of pretender to the throne.  She is far from the first patrician in history, spurned by her peers, to suddenly discover that she is a tribune of the people in order to preserve her status.

The dilemma she faces now is this:  She can "suspend" or otherwise hedge to keep her pretender status alive for a little while longer, but it is a very rapidly wasting asset.  She also clearly finds it psychologically hard to let go.  On the other hand, if she doesn't cash in her chips very soon, she risks ending up in a much poorer position.

If she were politically astute and not the damaged individual that I think she is, she would concede graciously, accept the kudos from all, and make herself invaluable to the Obama campaign.  That would do the most to preserve her status in the party and her options for the future.  Some part of her brain knows that but is having trouble with the rest of her that wants to throw a tantrum.  Im not betting on the rational part to win out.

June 3, 2008 12:10 PM

michael said:

roidubouloi  wrote: "She wants status, michael.  What do you conclude from that?"

In 'The Audacity Of Hope" Barack wrote, "In politics, there may be second acts, but there is no second place." So Hillary will extract the most status for the short term but can't sacrifice any good will for a second act. Further, her goal is not to help Obama as she only needs to avoid being accused of doing him harm.

So, in the broader sense of "What will she do for Barack and her party to elect him in the Fall?"

...as little as possible.

It is a zero sum game and any increase in his status will cost her. While this act is over, she will not concede anything now that she can't recover later.

June 3, 2008 12:47 PM

roidubouloi said:

Michael,

I certainly think that Hillary has no future in presidential politics.  In that sense, there is no second act.  But she could be politically and socially powerful.  However, I agree with you.  She is going to avoid doing anything that might benefit him in the least degree while trying not to cross the line that would have her blamed or leave her isolated.  I don't think it is a matter of calculation.  She is simply unable to lose well and spiteful, albeit subject to some social constraints.

Her inability to play for the future, even one not yet even dimly seen, is part of what incapacitated her campaign and makes her unsuited to be president.  REAL politicians know that the game never ends and always try to leave themselves in the best position for the next shot. Hillary just is not a genuine politician.  She was made, not growed.

June 3, 2008 1:10 PM

Rhubarbs said:

icarusr writes, "And if HuffPo is correct, apparently not even "suspend", only stop campaigning - whatever that might mean - so as to give her more negotiating power."

Negotiating power? What, exactly, does she have to trade at this point? If she does not get behind her party's nominee almost instantly after today, and campaign as hard for him as she would have for herself, then it's her career that's over, not his. Obama is young enough that it's possible for him to win the nomination again someday if he loses this year. At this point, Hillary has probably already pissed away any chance at Senate leadership, her reelection in 2012 is unlikely to be a cakewalk, and she will never be president. She has absolutely nothing to offer Obama as of the close of the polls tonight. Failing to endorse him tonight doesn't strengthen her position vis-a-vis him, it weakens her position vis-a-vis her party and her future in it.

The only think Hillary has ever had to offer Obama is time, which is a wasting asset, and now she's out of it. She has passed up every chance to demonstrate that she is capable of leading her supporters, so she can't even bargain on behalf of those who voted for her. She's been so careful to avoid taking the risks that leadership requires that we simply do not know whether Hillary's endorsement of Obama would help or hurt his cause among her supporters. We already know she's broke. So that's a big fat pile of nothing that Hillary has on her side of the table, and you don't negotiate with a beggar.

June 3, 2008 1:50 PM

icarusr said:

Rhubs: Agree with you - her "negotiating power" is a negative one; she is "Jesse Jackson" at this point of the process: able to screw Obama before and at the Convention, but not much more beyond that.  Another "Lion in Winter" reference: Alais to Henry: "I have nothing to lose, and that makes me dangerous."

June 3, 2008 2:45 PM

miceelf said:

According to Politico, Mark Penn is one of the people in her campaign pushing for her to "keep on fighting"

he should never work again, in democratic circles, just on general principles.

June 3, 2008 4:43 PM