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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
23.05.2008
What to Make of Early Polls

On the topic of early polls showing things like an Obama lead in Virginia and a deficit in Ohio, Brendan Nyhan has some thoughts, based in part on an interesting analysis of early 2004 polls which shows they're not entirely dismissable.

--Michael Crowley 

Posted: Friday, May 23, 2008 10:35 AM with 5 comment(s)

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liberal reformer said:

Quality polls are almost never entirely dismissable. But presidential elections are so fluid that they must be taken advisedly and with caution. If psephology were more reliable, we would be reminiscing about President Dukakis.

May 23, 2008 11:26 AM

miceelf said:

SUSA has Obama up in Ohio (poll out today). Indeed, SUSA has him further ahead in Ohio than in Rasmussen has him in either PA (??) or NH (!!!). I think a lot depends on the details of the poll. Part of the problem is that polls make assumptions, necessarily about turnout, and about racial proportions in turnout, which might be hard to gauge this season.

May 23, 2008 12:20 PM

Wandreycer1 said:

No effing WAY micelf? Obama up in Ohio?  That's got to be a first.  What happened?  

May 23, 2008 1:52 PM

miceelf said:

shrug - I dunno. check out realclearpolitics.com

May 23, 2008 4:46 PM

GSpinks said:

OH is all about the swing voters; there is a large segment of the population which does not care about parties and tickets. These people tend to seriously consider the candidates' position on their favorite issues (usually directly connected to their pocketbooks) and go where they feel most comfortable.

With a lack of certifiable differences this year, the primary went to Hillary because of a sense of respect for her "seniority", a concept prevalent in the state.

Throw in a little being mad at Bush, and Obama should have an easy time reeling in the state; I am thinking that he focuses on what he will do to repair the recent damage for best results.

May 24, 2008 2:05 AM