Obama could also take NC.  For that and other reasons, Mike Easley should be in the VP discussion.

You'd better hope Obama can put VA into play. You forgot to mention the new Quinnipiac polls showing Hillary beating McCain by 7 points in FL and OH, while McCain bests Obama in both states by 4.

Well, the mere fact that Obama and McCain are a statistical tie in Massachusetts is an indicator too.  So is his abysmal Hispanic support.  So is the hardening of working class support against him.  So is the fact that older Jewish voters don't seem to like him in Florida.  So is the fact that Hillary beats McCain by double digits in Pennsylvania while Obama barely slips by.  Loose Penn and tell me what kind of electoral calculus works!  

Obama's supporters are wholly, completely divorced from electoral reality.  They've built this perfect little system where superdelegates doing what they were created to do -- which is guard against Barack H. McGovern -- is "stealing" the election from the black man.  The Democratic Party has become a joke.

If Dems want to do what the Republicans did with Goldwater, which is nominate the person knowing that person will loose, then by all means, do so.  But don't act as if you're nominating the winner.  Admit it:  Obambi's going down to Mondale-esque defeat in November.

I've been following the recent Webb interviews and also thought he'd be a great VP pick until I saw this on the Daily Dish:

andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/.../nro-veepstakes.html

Now I think he'd be a liability for Obama with older female Hillary supporters. Unless Webb has offered a clear repudiation of his earlier statements about women in the military, he'll alienate this group in a big way. And from the video on the Dish, he seemed to be distancing himself from and parsing his earlier statements, rather than clearly and fully repudiating them.

Webb sucks as a campaigner, and Obama's not going to win over Appalachians anyway.

The battleground that will swing the election is the mountain southwest, specifically CO and NV. Win those and you don't need OH.

Which means latinos in the wouthwest will decide this election. Which means it's time to take a close look at KEN SALAZAR of Colorado. He's moderate, mature, solid, smart, focused on issues that matter to working families concerned about national security and economic security both. "Security First", as Ken says.

(Also, interestingly, his family's been in the San Luis Valley IIRC for hundreds of years, going way back to the Spanish settlers.)

Why surprising? Va will have two democrats as senators after November and has elected a democrat in the past two gubernatorial elections. Virginia was going blue before Obama.

The reason to put  Webb, or Biden for that matter, on the ticket is to mitigate the impact of the McCain "he's not ready" attack. VPs also are the campaign tuffs, blasting the other side, saying things the presidential nominee would prefer to avoid. *The exception being Joe Lieberman, who rolled over and let Dick Cheney rub his stomach in the debate.

A hard punching, tough minded indy: That's Webb.

In my opinion, Webb is still his best Vice Presidential pick notwithstanding the women-in-the-military stuff (I know I once mentioned Rendell, but I don't think he helps as much as Webb, plus that Farrakhan-praising video is just painful).  Reagan's Navy Secretary, former Republican, Vietnam vet, consistent critic of Iraq, champion of Scots-Irish working class white people, destroyer of Senator Macacawitz -- just the thought of the man taking on varmint-hunting Mitt or the tanned metrosexual Crist (not to mention a Young Republican twerp like Jindal or Sanford) in a VP debate is enough to bring a smile to one's day.  As for his ability to alienate older Hillary voters, I think that the party could do a good job of bringing most them into line by reminding them (though Hillary, if necessary) that President McCain would be one octogenarian justice away from having a Supreme Court majority to overturn Roe v. Wade.  

I do like Webb a lot and think that he meshes well with Obama's message of hope and nonpartisanship. And he's definitely a rising star and a voice of the future Democratic party. It's a match up of relative equals along the lines of Clinton and Gore. But it is worth noting, as Andrew Sullivan does today, that Webb has made some remarks about women serving in the military that will not play well with core Hillary supporters and his selection might be salt in the wound.

As a Virginian myself, I'm not at all surprised at that poll.  Obama should be able to carry Virginia with little difficulty, as we're really more purple than either red or blue.  I campaigned for Webb, but his success here was really more to do with Allen's failures and Webb being seen as really a Republican (he also has a carry permit) or at minimum a conservative Democrat.  Webb would certainly help Obama out as VP, but I think there are better choices, and Webb's not anywhere near the kind of campaigner that would really help. Besides which, we'll soon have two Democrats in the Senate, with Mark Warner taking John Warner's seat easily!

Richardson, as in Bill? No way is that loose cannon going to be on the ticket. He likes touching women too much to be named no. 2.  As for Jim Webb, he really is not good at glad-handing.

Sorry, Hemlock, for stepping on your post. I see that you while I was typing about Sullivan, you were posting his link.

As a very far out idea - What about Colin Powell?

Tep,

Could you actually offer up a Salazar rationale that doesn't include the fact that he's Hispanic? Not that I think its irrelevant, but don't really see how he really offers much beyond that.  He's the right age and not Washington and all, so he fits in a narrative sense at least, but I'm honestly not sure how he makes more sense from a merely demographic perspective than Sebelius.

You're right about Webb as a campaigner though.  Of course Webb is fairly freakin' media friendly despite that [kind of a Bizzaro Sebelius -- who's an incredible retail campaigner and terrible in TV interview land]

O' and I think you may be underestimating the race factor outside of the West. Obama overcomes it, to the extent that he does, by virtue of his freakish charisma and I've seen little evidence that Salazar has  that to rely on.    

nturner,

Obama may or may not win--I think he will, and handily, but that's neither here nor there--but lose by "Mondalesque proportions"?  Not a chance.  Do you think McCain is going to carry any of the following three states?

New York

Illinois

California

That alone guarantees that there will be no blowout on a Goldwater-McGovern-Mondale scale.  If you wish Obama supporters to give up illusions fostered by wishful thinking, then I suggest that you give up delusions born of vengeful wrath.

The SUSA Virginia poll, as well as their recent polls in New Mexico, California, and Pennsylvania, also looked at matchups with each of 4 VP candidates for each side: Huckabee, Romney, Pawlenty, and Lieberman for McCain, and Edwards, Sebelius, Rendell, and Chuck Hagel for Obama (I'm a bit surprised that they chose those to poll those four rather than the more talked about possibilities like Richardson, Webb, or Clinton).

In all four states, the VP candidate that polls the best is Edwards, by a large margin (around 10-15 points better than the others).  Amazingly, even in Pennsylvania, an Obama-Edwards ticket polls about 5 points better than an Obama-Rendell ticket, although the latter still wins fairly easily.  If presidential polls don't mean much at this stage, VP polls mean even less, but those are some pretty impressive numbers.  I'm a bit skeptical that the VP pick would really make that much of a difference, and Edwards may simply be doing better because of name recognition (although that can't really explain the edge over Rendell in PA).

Personally, I think Edwards is sort of a lightweight, and he doesn't really bring much to the ticket that Obama doesn't already have, but I think that Obama would have to seriously consider him if numbers like these hold up.  Even though there's a long list of people I think would be better as VP (e.g. Biden, Webb, Richardson, and probably the other three they polled), winning the election is a more important priority.

Keep Webb a senator absolutely if we don't need him to win.

timteeter, nturner and the few remaining Hillaryites are in withdrawal strung out on the last few drops of Hillary juice, might as well talk about how Gore would do against McCain, or Biden, or anyone else. It might be mildly interesting but effectively the same as talking about the batshit insane Hillary.

Chuck Hagel could be an interesting choice if he would be up for it. A true unity ticket, and it would drive McCain nuts.

Virginia is semi in play, Webb makes Virginia REALLY in play.

Obama needs Colorado, Missouri, New Mexico, and Iowa really badly, but he has a great shot at all of those. Ohio would wrap it up... don't think Florida is gettable.

Jim Webb barely won election in Virginia in 2006, and he has yet to cement his position in the commonwealth. Of the three leading Virginia Democrats, Webb is the one least likely to win a statewide election today. I know y'all out in the rest of the country love Webb, and you're right to, but don't push him for VP in order to win Virginia. If you want to win Virginia, your best bet is to put Mark Warner on the ballot. But guess what? Mark Warner already is on the November ballot!

Obama plus anyone plus Warner on the ballot for Senate and campaigning hard for the Dem ticket full-time within the commonwealth is just as good as Obama plus Webb, as far as Virginia goes.

If you want what Webb gives you, without the drawback of saddling Obama with maybe the worst retail politician in Washington, the answer is Brad Henry. What he lacks in military experience he makes up for in the executive experience that Webb lacks. Culturally he's a Southerner and a Westerner, he's non-Ivy, I believe his Spanish is pretty good, he has a lifetime A rating from the NRA, he's young, he's white, he looks good and speaks well. Plus. And I know we're not supposed to worry about this sort of thing at this point, but I do: he would make a good president if need be. I love Jim Webb, but I'm really not convinced he's temperamentally suited to the White House. One Andrew Jackson in the life of a republic is probably enough.

nturner writes,

"Well, the mere fact that Obama and McCain are a statistical tie in Massachusetts is an indicator too.  So is his abysmal Hispanic support.  So is the hardening of working class support against him.  So is the fact that older Jewish voters don't seem to like him in Florida.  So is the fact that Hillary beats McCain by double digits in Pennsylvania while Obama barely slips by."

Let's start from the top.  The latest Massachusetts poll had Obama up 12 over McCain; that isn't a statistical tie.  As for Hispanics and working class voters, you seem to be conflating performance in the primaries with performance against McCain.  Care to point to any data on Obama-McCain matchups that shows Obama doing "abysmally" among Hispanics or that "hardening working class support against him"?  Ditto for those older Jewish voters.  Finally, in PA, the last 4 polls have had Obama ahead by 9, 7, 6, and 8 against McCain.  That isn't barely slipping by.

Still, Hillary is, for the first time in several months, polling very well against McCain.  There are a number of reasons why this might be the case.  For one, she's not really being hit by McCain (or Obama for that matter).  At the same time, her campaign has finally found a message that seems to be resonating with voters.  Whatever the reasons, though, it's academic at this point.  There is essentially no way she can win without some major disaster befalling Obama.  In 12 days when this is over, hopefully she can help bring the party back together.

Rhub,

Henry's ok on paper, but in terms of charisma he's in Evan Bayh territory. Also he doesn't really put anything in play. Sebelius has a 71% approval rating, is pretty popular in neighboring Nebraska and her father was Gov of Ohio. Webb seals the deal in VA and would help some in Ohio and PA. Warner locks down VA, and helps tip research triangle states like NC toward blue. Even Claire McCaskill would open up MO and is a terrific campaigner besides.

Given all of this dream ticket hype Obama needs a potential media darling and that means Webb, Warner or maybe Sebelius.  

arson, Webb does not "seal the deal" in VA. That's what we folks in VA are trying to tell y'all. He barely won election two years ago, and so far has not distinguished himself within the commonwealth. If he had to run for reelection this year, he might not win. And if Brad Henry's charisma is in Evan Bayh territory -- which I think is a huge understatement, but we can disagree -- then that still leaves Henry several orders of magnitude up the charisma scale from Webb.

Putting Warner on the ticket doesn't help Obama any more in VA than having Warner on the ballot for Senate. Remember, as a Senate candidate, Warner will spend the next five months focusing just on Virginia and pushing the Dem ticket statewide. It's nice that Obama is polling well in VA right now, but if he is going to carry the state, it will have to be on Warner's coattails. Make Warner VP, and he'll actually do less good for the Democratic ticket in Virginia than otherwise, because instead of spending five months working Virginia for the Dem ticket, he'll spend no more than a couple of weeks in the commonwealth.

Now, maybe Webb or Warner would be of significant help elsewhere or with other national demographics. If so, fine. But neither one makes any sense from a putting-Virginia-into-play standpoint.

I would name Henry (or Sebelius, actually, or one of a few other great VP candidates) to the ticket. And then I would ask Webb to more or less move to western Virginia and campaign full time in West Virginia, central Pennsylvania, eastern Kentucky and Tennessee, and maybe even the Ohio River region of Ohio and Indiana. If he does the ticket any good, he does it in that region, and he doesn't have to be on the ticket to campaign for you in that specific area.

Great idea Tep - the very best I have heard so far.  

arson - Colorado. If McCain wins OH, then CO will be 2008's equivalent of Ohio in '04 and FL in '00.

Tep,

CO only has nine electoral votes. Take the Kerry 252 plus Iowa and CO, you only get to 268.  If we lose another election by a couple of EVs, I swear to God I'll kill myself.

Give me Strickland and his 20 Ohio EVs.  Sebelius looks interesting, but I'm dubious she can deliver Ohio.

Gotta have Ohio.

tep,

You're right that Colorado is going to be important, but I don't think Salazar would be a great VP pick.  He has a number of the same problems that Obama has with regard to experience; he was elected to the Senate the same year, and he doesn't bring executive or foreign policy experience.  I think Richardson would be a better choice from a strategic standpoint if that's the direction you want to go.

Richardson is a doofus.  He proved that in the debates time and again and particularly in that dreadful MTP appearance.  No way should he get the VP nomination.  

I'm with Rhubarbs on Webb's VP value or lack thereof in VA.  I think Obama has a real shot at taking the Old Dominion this year, but I'm not at all sure that Webb would give him that much of a boost.  The theory  would be that Webb would give BHO a boost both with the hillbillies of Webb's native southwest VA and with the large population of military retirees in Hampton Roads.  The thing is, I think Obama's in such a deep hole with both these populations, I doubt Webb could dig him out.  The way I see it, if Obama does eek out a 0.5% VA margin in November it'll be with the help solely of the DC suburbs and newly registered blacks in Richmond, Petersburg, Tidewater, and the rural Southside.  (That's south side of the James river, not Chicago.)  Virginia west of the Blue Ridge is hopelessly Republican and the same may be said, though to a lesser degree, for Virginia Beach, and those are the only too places where Webb might conceivably help.

It's just occurred to me that we aren't really arguing over the merits and deficits of respective potential VP's we're arguing over which states are and aren't in play. So rather than saying anything else nice about Mark Warner, I'll just say that I think two states will definitely change hands this year:  PA will go red and VA will go blue.

To my mind McCain puts MI and NH in play ... and that Obama puts CO, IA, NC, NV, NM and SC in play.  

OH and MO are always in play.

If that's more or less the true I'm not sure how Salazar, which is to say a NV + NM Hispanic strategy makes sense. On the other hand, Warner makes the most sense to me because a research park plus African Americans strategy puts more electoral votes within reach.  

Better to play for women and Hispanics with cabinet to be leaks ... I mean do any of you not think that Richardson's going to be his Sec State?

arson,

Why do you think PA will go red?  There's really nothing so far to indicate that.  The state will be competitive, as it always is, but it still probably leans blue.  McCain's best chances for pickups would be NH, MI, and WI, all of which are tossups.  The state that seems like the safest bet to flip is Iowa.  It's unclear whether places like ND, MT, and SC would be in play since there's been very little polling so far in those places.  And again, keep in mind that it's still May.  A lot can and will change.

Alan,

Well, PA is an economic basket case and Obama's best shot at victory rests on Obama's appeal to "creative class" voters in places like IA, NC, CO, NM and even GA [as for SC I'd just like to point out that the Obama campaign registered 150,000 new voters there and Bush only won the state in 2000-2004 by 175-180,000 votes] Everything Obama does to placate PA's old economy rustbelt fears will alienate as yet untapped post industrials stuck in the middle of paces like GA and NC. I just don't think he'll get to have it both ways,  I mean everyone working at a Bio-Tech firm in Atlanta knows what types of things have to be done to fix this economy, and they're the exact opposite of what folks in PA want to hear.

I'd cede McCain MI and OH as well but Michigan is trying to go tech and Ohio's a little younger and has a broken republican party besides, so I think Obama can win them without costing himself NC, IA  and CO.

One more thing, I'm paying more attention to demographics than polling here, it's been more reliable this year.

Michigan has the highest unemployment rate in the nation, and during the primary McCain essentially told Michigan "you're on your own, folks."  (Unlike Romney, who promised them the moon).  I don't see how Michigan goes red unless Romney is the VP nominee, and McCain co-opts Romney's message (i.e. panders, which will hurt him everywhere else).

As for PA, it went for Kerry and nothing has changed demographically. It leans slightly but unmistakably blue, and with Rendell at the controls it will stay that way (which is also why you don't need to put him on the ticket).  The Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico tri-fecta might pay off, but we're going up against a candidate whose home state borders each of those states, and there has never been a president from the Mountain states.  Regional pride may be hard to overcome.

Kerry lost Ohio by about 1%.  You can't tell me Strickland on the ticket wouldn't be worth at least 2-3% there, more than enough to put us over the top.  Ohio is the one big state that's totally up for grabs, and Strickland can deliver it to us..He's the logical choice. Everyone else would just be a shot in the dark.  

"I mean do any of you not think that Richardson's going to be his Sec State?"

Nightmarish scenario, but I guess that doesn't mean it won't happen ...

porterm,

I feel constrained to point out that Obama can lose FL and OH and still win the election.  (For my money, I think we Dems have to face that fact that we're going to lose Florida.)  If Obama wins VA and either CO or IA (both increasingly likely), and assuming that all the other states play out as they did in 2004 (PA, MI, WI, etc.), as I expect they will, then he can lose FL, OH, and MO -- and still win.  Either way, it is McCain that MUST get OH-FL-Plus in order to win.

This is a pretty useful (and fun) site btw:

http://www.270towin.com/

Just click on "reset view" and you can play out the election, switching states between Blue and Red.