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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
19.05.2008
Will Obama Have to Junk the Dictator-Meetings Idea?

Mike actually raised this point (the final one, that is) at our editorial meeting last week. From First Read:

By the way, if the Democratic Party is going to start uniting around Obama as it began to do late last week during the spat with McCain and Bush, the Obama camp might want to make sure that everyone’s working off the same talking points. Here’s Joe Biden -- a potential Obama veep pick -- talking yesterday on ABC about Obama’s position on meeting with unsavory world leaders: “This is a fellow who I think shorthanded an answer that in fact was the wrong answer, in my view, saying I would within my first year, it implied he'd personally sit down with anybody who wanted to sit down with him. That's not what he meant. That's not what he has said since then for the last year or thereabout. And so I think he's fully capable of understanding of what's going." The “wrong answer”? RNC jumped all over that Biden comment. There are a lot of folks in the Dem Party (including the Clinton campaign) who believe Obama made policy based on a debate gaffe, because Obama's campaign at the time didn't want to concede they made a mistake on such a crucial question.

My sense is that Obama surprised his own staff when he said he'd meet with dictators during that debate, though they basically defend the idea now. Since then, he's become a little vaguer--he tends to stress negotiations with adversaries rather than face-to-face meetings with the likes of Chavez and Ahmadinejad--but obviously the McCain campaign isn't going to let him elide the issue. The question is, will he have to walk back the meeting idea and admit he overstated his point? Or will he stick to his guns? Both options could give McCain a valuable talking point.

Update: Ben Smith has the latest back and forth between Obama and McCain on this. In Oregon last night, Obama didn't quite say he'd meet with Chavez and Ahmadinejad, but he did talk about negotiating with our adversaries, and he prefaced his comments by invoking Kennedy-Khrushchev, Nixon-Mao, etc. Then, this morning, McCain hit him for being naive about what a summit with Ahmadinejad would mean.

Here's video of Obama's comments, but I can't get it to work.

Update II: I should have posted this initially. It's the transcript from an Obama press avail last Thursday in which he got a question about this same issue. (The Obama campaign sent it out yesterday.) I think he did a pretty good job with it here:

Asked whether his idea of meeting with hostile nations consisted of "from the get-go of the President of the United States" or lower level aides, Obama said, "The latter. Understand what the question was. The question was a very specific question. Would you meet without preconditions? Preconditions as it applies to a country like Iran for example was a term of art. Because this administration has been very clear that it will not have direct negotiations with Iran until Iran has meet preconditions that are essentially negotiations with Iran until Iran has met preconditions that are essentially what Iran used and many other observers would view as the subject of the negotiations. For example, their nuclear program. The point is that I would not refuse to meet until they agree to every position that we want. But that doesn't mean that we would not have preparation, and the preparation would involve starting with low level-lower level diplomatic contacts, having our diplomatic corps work through with Iranian counterparts, an agenda. But what I have said is that at some point I would be willing to meet. And that is a position, I mean, what's puzzling is that we view this as in any way controversial, when this has been the history of U.S. diplomacy, until very recently. This whole notion of not talking to people, it didn't hold in the ‘60s, it didn’t hold in the '70s, it didn’t hold in the '80s, it didn’t hold in the '90s, against much more powerful adversaries; much more dangerous adversaries. I mean, when Kennedy met with Khrustiev [sic], we were on the brink of nuclear war. When Nixon met with Mao, that was with the knowledge that Mao had exterminated millions of people. And yet we understood that we could advance our national security interests by at least opening up lines of communication. And this was bipartisan. And it's a signal of how badly our foreign policy has drifted over the last eight years; how much it has been skewed by the rhetoric of the Bush Administration that this should even be a controversial proposition." [Obama Press Avail, 5/15/08]

Emphasizing the distinction between "preconditions" and "preparation" may be Obama's best response to the GOP line of attack, though it requires a little more explaining than you'd like in the heat of a campaign.

--Noam Scheiber

Posted: Monday, May 19, 2008 12:28 PM with 31 comment(s)

Comments

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WoodyBombay said:

Oh God - a post about that naive waif Obama making a bumbling rookie mistake and brave Sir Joseph of Delaware riding to his rescue while at the same time espousing a far more seasoned, adult viewpoint?

tep will have to change his underwear after reading this.

May 19, 2008 12:33 PM

ironyroad said:

Yes, instead of going to talk to that evil dictatorship in Iran, Obama should be getting to know that inspiring democratic freedom-loving ally of ours, Saudi Arabia.

May 19, 2008 1:03 PM

mpatrickhendri said:

The republicans are sucking the tail pipe if this what they bringing to the general.

May 19, 2008 1:11 PM

blackton said:

Why the hell do Democrats have to concede that only Nixon could go to China? If Nixon was right to go to China, then Humphrey (had he won) would have been right too.

May 19, 2008 1:20 PM

Wandreycer1 said:

Since our present framework with Iran is so successful, of course.

May 19, 2008 1:21 PM

liberal reformer said:

I thought it a mistake at the time that Barack Obama voiced his sentiment. I told a friend that here is a ready-made issue for the Republicans if Obama were to become the nominee. Now, Obama is on the cusp of the nomination and his position is under assault. Never mind the merits of his stance, the Republicans always demagogue on security matters. I think that this flap is indicative of Obama's electoral inexperience.

May 19, 2008 1:31 PM

williamyard said:

What mpatrickhendri said. It's like last call has come and gone, everybody else has paired up, and all that's left has two missing teeth and fresh stitches.

Off topic, but I see that RealClearPolitics is now providing battleground state polls. Time to put down the straw and pick up the needle and spoon.

May 19, 2008 1:52 PM

blackton said:

LR, again, why was Nixon able to negotiate with one of the most reprehensible dictators of all time and was hailed for his vision, but Obama not allowed to do the same? It is a ridiculous double standard. Was Nixon right to go to China or not? If so, can it not be argued that Obama might be right as well?

May 19, 2008 1:59 PM

dubyadoubte said:

Not only did Nixon go to China and the Soviet Union, he visited these two nations, and toasted their leaders at a time when Soviet and Chinese arms were flowing into North Vietnam.

May 19, 2008 2:33 PM

guyminuslife said:

I am just wondering what the fuck the Republicans think will happen if Obama were to meet with, say, the Iranian leaders. My god! Look at them! They *talked*! You can't do that! He might have accidentally complimented their shoes, or worse, averted a war!

May 19, 2008 3:01 PM

teplukhin2you said:

woody - no more brown-nosing, k?

May 19, 2008 3:02 PM

butchie b said:

Let's see.  Nixon talked with the Soviets, with whom we had diplomatic relations since 1933, because they were a peer competitor at the time.  US Presidents had been meeting with Soviet leaders since 1961 (Kennedy-Khrushchev at Vienna).

Nixon met with Mao as a counterweight against the Sovs.  Indeed, they agreed on putting a US listening post in western China.

In contrast, Iran is not a peer competitor, we do not have diplomatic relations with them, and Obama said that he would sit down "without preconditions."  I have not heard the word "negotiations" mentioned.  Further, negotiate about what?  Their nuke program?  The EU-3 has been doing that for years now with, as noted above, little success.  Perhaps Obama believes that Ahmedinajad will see the light, as many on these boards have.

Much as we might wish it, Obama's plan isn't the same as Nixon going to China or the USSR.

May 19, 2008 3:04 PM

ironyroad said:

"The EU-3 has been doing that for years now with, as noted above, little success."

And several people have also noted till we're blue in the face that the reason why the EU-3 negotiations haven't produced any success is that there's nothing that the Europeans can give Iran that Iran currently desires.  It's getting to the point that I believe some posters just deliberately ignore that very important aspect of the whole debacle because it screws up their whole argument.

America, on the other hand, has a number of things we could -- potentially -- give Iran that they desire:  recognition, respect, a regional strategic alliance with respect to both China and Russia, protection, stability vis-a-vis our ME policy, and the like.

It's insane to have the people who should be in the second row -- the EU -- doing the talking for the people who are hanging at the back looking resentful -- the Bush administration.

The Iranians also have things to offer that we could find useful, most of all an ironclad commitment not to develop a military nuclear capacity and a commitment to regional stability (including counterterrorism support) both in the immediate neighborhood and farther afield.

Hence negotiation can bear fruit.  However, it might be nice if we thought it through this time.

May 19, 2008 3:22 PM

butchie b said:

Good, irony, except that we have been offering Iran much already IF they would verifiably cease their nuclear enrichment program, and they have repeatedly refused to do so.

Problem is, the meeting with an American President gives them what they want, or a good bit of it, and they will then have no incentive to agree to what we want.  Hence, much preparation would be in order before any meeting.

Amazing that after 8 years of criticizing the Bushies for being unilateral, people hereabouts want Obama to be, well, unilateral.

May 19, 2008 3:54 PM

ironyroad said:

Ok butchie, but the problem is -- whether anyone likes it or not -- that the Iranians aren't dumb.  They know that the one jewel they can give up is the potential nuclear asset, and they'd be crazy (in the normal sense of the word) to hand that over before sitting down.  And thus the U.S. asking for the potential result of negotiations as a prerequisite for negotiating in the first place isn't going to get anywhere and makes us look either clueless or unserious or both.

I disagree 100% that meeting the president gives them most of what they want.  How do you support that assertion?  Far from it -- it places them under a new and different pressure.  Even if the negotiations produce nothing (and one can be tactically pessimistic) they will change the polarity of the relationship:  for the first time, WE start to become the constructive party wanting to resolve major issues, and THEY become the unpredictable weirdos with the ominous agenda.  And if we have to move to the military option, then the world will have seen that we did our best to avoid that decision.

Finally, I don't see your point about unilateratism -- who's asking Obama to be unilateral?  Of course one cooperates with allies and international institutions.  What's being asked is to think through our Iran policy again with clarity and a lack of ideological point-scoring, and with a view to the wider problems of regional stability and fighting nuclear proliferation (indeed, an attack on Iran will be the final signal to a number of countries that they need to get nukes, and fast).

Otherwise, yayyy to preparation.  Always good

May 19, 2008 4:39 PM

The Stump said:

McCain's again pushing the Obama-Ahmadinejad line. I think last week's exchange was a short-term

May 19, 2008 5:06 PM

butchie b said:

Sorry, irony, the West in general and the US in particular have already tried to solve major problems withthe Iranians, and they won't play.  If Obama meets with them, do you truly believe that the Iranians will cease support for Hamas and Hezbollah, that they will change their declaratory policy of the extinction of Israel?  Oh, and the world will see us as constructive?  No, I think not.  We are no more likely to win a UNSC vote on military action against Iran before the meeting as after it.

I just believe that it is wishful thinking to believe that we will get anything tangible out of a sit-down with the Iranian leadership.  Why should they give us anything?  

Again, they are not a peer competitor, and we should not treat them as if they were.  They can help us, and themselves, but will not.  They have proven that already.  I'm happy to be clear in our Iran policy, and it seems to me that we are and have been.

May 19, 2008 5:22 PM

AlanSP said:

"Problem is, the meeting with an American President gives them what they want, or a good bit of it, and they will then have no incentive to agree to what we want."

I'm skeptical of the notion that what Iran really wants is the "prestige" of meeting with the U.S.  Even if it is, then the flip side of your statement is also true.  If Iran drops its nuclear enrichment program as a precondition for meeting with us, as the Bush administration has insisted, they've given up what is by far their most powerful bargaining chip.  The U.S. would have little incentive to agree to anything that Iran might ask for.  In short, Iran would be stupid to do such a thing.

May 19, 2008 5:31 PM

ironyroad said:

Either you take people seriously on a topic or you don't, butchie.

No I don't believe that Iran would give up support for Hamas and Hizbollah just because Obama meets with them.  Obama doesn't believe it.  Nobody on this site believes it; noone freaking well believes that that's what he believes, or that he was seriously suggesting getting on AF1 and flying to Baghdad on a whim.  Come on!

Either it's a discussion or it's just point-scoring.  We got a UNSC resolution for Gulf War I, and for turning up the heat on Saddam.  Support is there if we do it right.  To suggest a priori that there would be no UN stamp for action against Iran if Iran was a clear and present danger to its neighbors seems to confuse winning a case with everone falling in line.  Nobody's going to fall in line, but we can win a case.  We haven't been very convincing advocates in recent times, which is mainly our problem.

And I don't see McCain improving this much.

May 19, 2008 6:03 PM

ironyroad said:

Sorry, I meant flying to Teheran.  Not Baghdad.  Baghdad's the place where we toppled the one major threat to Iran in that region.

May 19, 2008 7:18 PM

hemlock41 said:

Great posts, Irony.

May 19, 2008 7:27 PM

ironyroad said:

Gratias, hemlock.  But sometimes it's just headache stuff.  I mean, butchie b is a smart guy, but on this it's like his perspective could be reduced to "Hey, we're the good guys, right?  Why do we have to think so much?"

May 19, 2008 8:02 PM

GSpinks said:

"...it requires a little more explaining than you'd like in the heat of a campaign."

Thats because it requires a little more thought than has been exhibited by our current Chimpanzee-In-Chief, scurrying too and fro alternatively throwing poo and bananas ad hoc. The position definitely bears a little extra explanation, but that is one of Obama's biggest draws: willing to think an issue past the bumper-sticker phase, and willing to walk his audience through his lines of reasoning. If Obama starts actually relying on the bumper-sticker-sloganeering of the Republitards, it will be over before it begins.

Sorry to dog-pile on this one, butchie et al, but I cannot sit back and say nothing on this issue, especially after reading this article apnews.myway.com/.../D90O6UG00.html:

"McCain strongly disagrees with Obama's position; he argues such a meeting would lend international prestige to U.S. foes."

It is the epitome of egotism to believe that meeting with the POTUS lends international prestige to ANYONE. It presumes a stature and authority that simply is not supported by the facts, and never was; 9/11 is a testament to the contempt, even hatred,  in the hearts of peoples of many countries towards the USA. I have seen nothing in the last 9+ years to indicate that any countries other than Israel, England, and perhaps now France, would actually consider itself "honored" by hosting the POTUS. As for the impression that meeting with "U.S. foes" would give them prestige for making the USA flinch, that is a direct result of the foreign policies of the last 7+ years and you have only Bush to blame. If the next POTUS can present themselves as distinctly parting with the policies of Bush, that "spin" will hold no water, and we can start to restore our tarnished reputation around the world.

If you want to give prestige to our foes, I have a perfect plan: allow them to blow up one of the most prominent landmarks in America, kill over 3000+ Americans, and allow the leaders of the country to escape unharmed and reorganize in their neighbor's back yard. THAT is giving prestige to our foes!

"Much as we might wish it, Obama's plan isn't the same as Nixon going to China or the USSR."

And exactly how many nuclear warheads do they have to put together before Iran is the same as the USSR? How many dirty bombs, manufactured from Iran's yellow cake, have to be exploded within Israel before Iran is the same as China? Are you sure these are the criteria you want to use for gauging when diplomacy is mandated? Getting ahead of the issues sounds pretty smart to me!

"the West in general and the US in particular have already tried to solve major problems with the Iranians, and they won't play"

I presume you are talking about any number of undisclosed CIA operations to subvert duly appointed, anti-American regimes (ie Pakistan) with not necessarily duly appointed, pro-American regimes? Or Bush's petulant, powerless demands for extra oil production, or for Hamas to stop killing Israelis? Perhaps all those so-called "sanctions"? DId it ever occur to you that they won't play because they don't have to? That, unlike the average bully, they're willing to take a couple of black eyes to stand up for themselves because to them, thanks to a long history of the aforementioned undisclosed CIA operations, we are the bully?

"We are no more likely to win a UNSC vote on military action against Iran before the meeting as after it."

But we'll earn a lot less ire if we have made our best, good-faith efforts before bombing the shit out of Iran. We can offer the table-of-bomb-the-shit-out-of-us or the table-of-lets-talk-about-it, and let them decide at which table to sit.

May 19, 2008 8:36 PM

harriscrl3 said:

NO because its Common sense.

Carol

May 20, 2008 12:53 PM

butchie b said:

Happy to think as much as you'd like, Irony, just I come to different conclusions than you do.

Taking all you have said as true, if President Obama goes to Tehran with no preconditions, what exactly does he talk about?  Ending their uranium enrichment program?  Sorry, they've already said no to the EU-3's incentives.  Ending support for Hamas and Hezbollah?  No again, as you have pointed out.  Retraction of their "wipe Israel off the map" comments?  Like, we were only kidding?

For the record, I don't want to bomb Iran, I want to deter them, and we don't need to talk to them to do that.  You seem to be saying, let's go to Tehran to say we did, so then we can go to the UNSC and say,see, we tried, now let us bomb them.  Something tells me Russia and China ain't playing ball.

And if you don't want to bomb them either, then again I ask, what is the point of sitting down with these miserable bastards?  How does the meeting advance American interests?  It's apparent to me that Iran won't be persuded to our POV.  Do you believe our allies will?  Or 3rd countries who are neither friend nor foe (Russia/China)?

Further, what would be the purpose of sitting down with Kim Jong Il or Hugo Chavez (although Hugo could say whether or not the sulfur smell was on BHO)?

Yes, Spinks, W is the devil, I get that.  But if it's such a good idea, pehaps Sen. Obama might flesh out his proposal more than the "bumper-sticker" theme he has put into the public domain thus far.

May 20, 2008 2:56 PM

ironyroad said:

On what do you base your conclusions?

I think you're taking "no preconditions" too literally.  Of course there are preconditions -- for example, they would be about structure, agenda, procedure, and would be agreed by both sides.  What is really dumb, however, is -- once again, folks -- making a crucial desired result of negotiations the precondition for negotiating.  That is a guarantee that they won't happen.

And once again, butchie, for the umpteenth time, the EU-3's incentives do not interest Iran.  The EU has nothing to give Iran that it desires at the moment.  It's certainly possible that the economic situation will deteriorate to such a point that suddenly the Iranians say yes to the Europeans, but I take leave to doubt that.

What Iran is interested in is recognition, security, and legitimate regional influence arising from its sense of national prestige and 3,000-year history.  Only we can give them those things, or enable those things to happen.  What we are interested in is Iran not continuing to be an unpredictable wildcard in the region and a potential -- not yet existing -- nuclear threat to us or to allies or to the region in general.  We can give them recognition and security.  They can give us responsibility and reliability.

You ask:

"And if you don't want to bomb them either, then again I ask, what is the point of sitting down with these miserable bastards?  How does the meeting advance American interests?  It's apparent to me that Iran won't be persuded to our POV.  Do you believe our allies will?  Or 3rd countries who are neither friend nor foe (Russia/China)?"

My answer would be -- because I don't think a military option is really real (it's not about "wanting" or not wanting to bomb them, it's about the political effects inside and outside Iran of an attack) -- that we should make our position clear that we want to RESOLVE outstanding issues, and help Iran move to a legitimate place as a respected nation, which it has the capacity to be (indeed a greater capacity than either Pakistan or Saudi Arabia, or faithful "allies").

The meeting could advance American interests because (a) the process of stability and security in the region is very much in our interest, (b) non-proliferation is a crucial component of that process, and (c) we badly need to change the narrative so that we are the constructive party.

Iran doesn't have to be persuaded to our POV.  Perhaps if we stopped trying to get people to think like us, we wouldn't be permanently running after the unachievable.  What needs to happen is that Iran has to be persuaded that the way forward for its own national interests is not the one that brings it to being a threatening nuclear power that scares its neighbors.  But it has legitimate security concerns, so how do we help them to handle those concerns another way?

Thus I ask you, why wouldn't allies come to our way of thinking if its obvious that we have taken the constructive path, and Iran the dangerous path?  Of course if we charge in again with a bunch of weird photos and stories of yellow cake, nobody will be convinced.  But I see every chance of a multilateral strategy, led by us, bringing Iran -- which has rational political interests as any country does -- to the place where it has a choice how it wants to proceed.  Then if it makes the wrong one, everyone will be watching.

May 20, 2008 3:45 PM

butchie b said:

Based on Iran's actions for the past decade or so, what do you believe they are willing to give up to receive the recognition you say they seek?

Will they stop enriching uranium?  Will they cease support for Hamas and Hezbollah?  Will they cease sending arms to kill US soldiers in Iraq?  Will they recognize Israel's right to exist?

I already hear you - we'll never know until we talk to them.  Perhaps.  But let's say we do talk, and their answer is no.  The situation then is status quo ante.  What have we gained?  Yes, everyone will be watching - and doing absolutely nothing.

I also question your belief that Iran wants peace and stability in the region.  See their support for Hamas and Hezbollah above.

In short, I see nothing that we want that the Iranians are likely to agree to.  They will pocket any concessions we make, and continue to destabilize their neighbors, and continue to develop nuclear weapons.  I even doubt that they would agree to let the IAEA in to do no-notice inspections.

Yes, these are the wrong decisions, at least by my lights.  But the rest of the world won't give a rat's ass.  It will be happy that the Iranians told the bad ol' US to go to hell.  President Obama or no.

May 20, 2008 5:23 PM

ironyroad said:

I'd draw your attention to the following

1.  We got the UNSC vote for Gulf War I and we got the UNSC vote for 1441 in fall 2002.  That nobody supports us is a myth, but certainly this administration hasn't won too many friends.

2.  If Iran keeps on its path, then yes, there's going to be a crisis and who knows, maybe a first strike is the only thing.  But it makes a big difference if the other paths have been explored, with a clear intent to resolve issues on our part -- we badly need to regain the high ground.

3.  Iran -- as nobody will deny -- is not a monolith, there are a number of centers of power and conflciting agendas.  National pride is strong.  If we look like we just want to make Iran crawl, it alienates not only the Mullahs and the fundamentalists, but also lots of people who don't like the regime and are basically pro-western.

4.  This administration hasn't taken non-proliferation seriously.  At the very least, we need an answer if we do sit down and the first Iranian says to our chief negotiator:  "We live in a dangerous neighborhood, Russia has nuclear weapons, as does China, India, and Pakistan.  We have a history of being pushed around by foreign powers.  Mr Ambassador, how do you suggest we maintain our national security?"

5.  One of the reasons why it's difficult to bring other nations along on the counter-proliferation count is that we have indicated that the only thing we care about is keeping lots of our nukes and making sure only people we like get to have theirs.  That's not counter-proliferation, that's pretending that world will go along with every whim that we have about our own superiority.  "Because you're miserable bastards" isn't a useful negotiating position, especially as they presumably see us the same way.

6.  If Iran gets a bead on something it wants, I don't think the commitment to Hamas or Hizbollah would last until lunchtime.  That's not how states do things.  Back in the 1970s we dropped the Kurds like they were poison once we got a deal with Saddam Hussein.

I'm a realist myself, and not some rose-tinted vision guy.  However, I don't see the point in declaring every single effort to be worthless before we even start.  And there are regional balancing issues to do with Russia and China that make a good relationship with Iran of future interest.  Mutual interest.

May 20, 2008 7:26 PM

ChanRobt said:

Yeah, Noam, of course Obama surprised his advisors with his meet with any dictator promise.  Because the man doesn't know what the hell he's talking about.

There is a big difference between being smart and articulate and being prepared for the presidency.

Jack Kennedy was very glamorous and gave superb speeches and was witty on his feet in press conferences.  Dwight Eisenhower was none of those things.  But, he was a much better president.

May 20, 2008 9:13 PM

ChanRobt said:

CLARIFICATION  When I wrote that Ike was "none of those things" relative to my group of JFK attribute, I didn't mean Ike wasn't smart.  Clearly he was intelligent, shrewd, and judicious.

May 20, 2008 9:15 PM

ironyroad said:

"Because the man doesn't know what the hell he's talking about."

Didn't.  I think it's different now.  We can all learn.  Or, most of us.

May 20, 2008 10:16 PM