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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
14.05.2008
Did the GOP's Obama Link Backfire in Mississippi?

An interesting nugget from the Times about the Dems' win in that Mississippi special election last night:

In the end, tying the white Democrat to the black presidential candidate may have helped Mr. Childers more than it hurt him, as campaign aides reported heavy black turnout, heavier than in a vote three weeks ago when he came within 400 votes of winning.

“I like what Childers was saying: he was more truthful and down to earth,” said Mary Shelton, an African-American who had just voted for him at the Yalobusha County courthouse here.

And Mr. Childers’s association with the party that might nominate Mr. Obama didn’t hurt either. “We need a change, we really do,” Ms. Shelton said.

Mr. Childers won Yalobusha, having lost it in the April vote.

And even in this district, it is not difficult to find conservative voters dissatisfied with the administration in Washington. “There’s a lot of people that are mad at Bush,” said Jim Jennings, a retired businessman, sitting at a table with Republican voters at a barbecue restaurant in DeSoto County.

It sounds like Obama helps with turnout more than he hurts with swing voters in a conservative district like this one.

I don't see Obama carrying many Southern states (though making McCain spend time and money defending Georgia, North Carolina, and Virginia would be a big plus in itself.) But you can imagine him helping Democrats pick up some Southern House seats thanks to this dynamic.

--Noam Scheiber

Posted: Wednesday, May 14, 2008 12:40 PM with 5 comment(s)

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liberal reformer said:

Hurricane Katrina was the beginning of the end of the second Bush administartion. The glacial response of W. himself, the incompetence of FEMA, all of this shocked even conservatives. The increasing carnage in Iraq further undermined W.'s presidency. I recall Bush - after the 2004 election - how he was going to spend his political capital. Said capital was sucked down the drain pretty rapidly.

May 14, 2008 1:02 PM

virginiacentrist said:

"But you can imagine him helping Democrats pick up some Southern House seats thanks to this dynamic."

Exactly. The Southern Democratic candidates need to do two things:

1. Gently separate themselves from Obama and focus on increasing performance in white swing precincts.

2. Pad your numbers using record black turnout driven by (a) the Obama candidacy itself and (b) backlash against your GOP opponent's attempt to tie you to Obama using racially divisive tactics.

It's a delicate balancing act, but Childers pulled it off. Musgrave will attempt it in Mississippi at the statewide level in November.

May 14, 2008 1:27 PM

purcellneil said:

Noam,

Interesting angle.  If this is how things actually play out, President Obama may have a Congress he can work with.  

Amen.

Neil

May 14, 2008 1:36 PM

GSpinks said:

Hrmmm, Dem candidates benefit from increased voter turnout in the black precincts, without having to risk their reputations as upstanding white Americans by campaigning there. I'm not sure how I feel about this....

May 14, 2008 3:18 PM

blackton said:

GSpinks, hah. Great observation. I guess it is in the aggregate.

May 14, 2008 5:31 PM