Slates Deathwatch dropped her changes of winning from 12.6 to 4.2 percent.  Not quite zero, but even they are basically declaring that Obama will have to commit murder to lose the nomination.

Darn it's a good thing for Hillary that she has the unshakable support of Rush Limbaugh. Where would she be without the votes of people who'll never vote for her in November?

Does this mean we won't be reading pccostello's creative posts any more?

*sigh*

I think Obama can put a nail in Clinton's coffin by coming out and agreeing to seat Florida as is, and split Michigan 50/50.  This would completely take any wind out of Clinton's sails.  Splitting Michigan would be seen as reasonable given that he wasn't even on the ballot, and he can afford the 18 or so delegate hit he'd take with Florida.  The play is to remove uncertainty from the game.  There would be nothing left to fight for and the pressure, if not crushing enough, would surely force Clinton out of the race.

Good point, arimelmed. I cannot imagine any justification she'd have for rejecting that offer on the grounds that Michigan should be counted as is.

Surely they are merely assertions, Mr. Crowley. I don't think that Hillary is about to withdraw. I don't see the MIchigan and Florida imbroglios being settled any time soon.

I don't agree armelmed.  The maximum pressure on Hillary is when she is furthest behind.  By the time MI and FL are finally decided, they will be irrelevant to the outcome.

arimelmed, it's always been obvious that once it was clear that seating the MI and FL delegations wouldn't overturn the results from the rest of the country, then both states would be seated.

After the NC and IN results, there is no longer any threat that including FL and MI will overturn the results of the rest of the states. Obama wins decisively now in all three metrics -- states won, votes cast, and delegates -- even with MI and FL delegates seated in full. So they will be seated, and the decision should come soon.

However, I'm with you in hoping that the Obama campaign gets out in front of this and calls for MI and FL inclusion sooner than later. If Obama is for it, then that removes it as a campaign issue for Hillary, and with that off the table, what's she got left to campaign for? A one-time gas tax holiday? And, as long as FL and MI will not actually affect the outcome of the primary race, seating them in full is the right thing to do. The proper punishment for their cheating is not total shunning and exclusion, it is simply to prevent their cheating from affecting the outcome.

But what about her revelation that 2209 delgates are need for the nomination.  Seems to me that puts right back in the game.  Actually I find it amazing that having fallen farther behind she would now advocate that she needs even more delegates to get the nomination.

The math is clear.  There as many big wins or groups of wins for Obama as for Clinton.  MD, DC, VA vs. NY, a virtual draw for TX, OH, VT, RI, NC and IN vs. PA.

If I use Slates delegate counter to predict the remaining races based on reasonable outcomes and past results in states of similar demographics, Obama picks up 1 more delegate than Hillary by the end.  

Here's the math as I see it at the end counting current superdelegate totals:

Delegates needed to win - 2025, Obama will have 1964.5 needing 60.5 supers or 23% of the uncommitted;  Clinton will have 1806.5 needing 218.5 supers or 82% of the uncommitted.

I would be amazed if he could not pick up 60.5 superdeleages in the next month, if not by shortly after the last primary.

Hillary,

Here's your hat, what's your hurry?

psantillana makes kind of a sarcastic response to arimelmed's suggestion that Obama agree to honor Florida and split Michigan 50/50, thereby taking what little wind remains out of the Clinton camp's sails, writing:

"Good point, arimelmed. I cannot imagine any justification she'd have for rejecting that offer on the grounds that Michigan should be counted as is."

... well, okay - I say the Obama camp should give Clinton Michigan too, no reason to even split it at this point.  The only stipulation should be that Obama gets the delegates for the 40% undecided.  That would still leave Obama with a 103 delegate lead.  Even if Clinton won every state but Oregon by an 20% margin - HOPELESSLY IMPLAUSIBLE - she would still trail Obama by over 80 pledged delegates going into the convention.

It is truly over for Hillary, her camp must know this.  To stay in means they are banking on using the supers to overwhelm the pledged delegate count, perhaps on some pretence of popular vote, who knows.

As a Hillarista I conced.    bmailin's insightful math show that Obama will be  the nominee.   It's time for her to drop out, and time to unify the party.