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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
06.05.2008
Is It Over For Hillary?

My latest run through the North Carolina exit polls showed Obama winning by about 14.5 points. If that were to hold--and it's a big if given the screwiness of the exit polls--he'd make up all the popular votes he lost two weeks ago in Pennsylvania. And, given how few voters are still out there, it would become almost impossible for Hillary to catch him--even if you added in Florida and Michigan. Combine that with a pledged-delegate lead that's likely to widen, and it's hard to see Hillary's path to the nomination. 

As I say, though, all of that is contingent on the final margin.

--Noam Scheiber

Posted: Tuesday, May 06, 2008 7:55 PM with 20 comment(s)

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FWright said:

Don't we have to see how Indiana turns out first?  A blowout there might leave the irrelevant popular vote still close.  We'll see in the morning.

May 6, 2008 8:10 PM

sabatia said:

Excuse me. You have forgotten the rules. That's just like you kind of people--liberal elitist mostly male pigs. You don't understand the working class. And you clearly don't understand that though this is the Democratic Party and we all agreed to the same rules, in the end, victory goes to the victorious. Great leaders, like Hillary, break the rules, for the good of the People.

Under the Clinton Rules, which consist of only one rule: We Win, Hillary must win. Because that rule can't be broken: Hillary will win. Its just the way it is. Sort of Taoistic. (And please don't ask if Bill wears Gucci shoes. After all he's been through, he's entitled. And so is Hillary!)

May 6, 2008 8:30 PM

tnmats said:

Is it January yet?  I'm sick of it all.

May 6, 2008 8:34 PM

blackton said:

You can't add Florida and Michigan, especially Michigan, what she is going to claim that she won there 328,000 to 0 and not expect to be ridiculed? Hillary is toast. She has no argument anymore. I don't want to hear that the second place finisher deserves the nomination simply because her supporters are older and whiter.

May 6, 2008 8:38 PM

blackton said:

FW, if the popular vote is irrelevant, why wait? Hillary has run out of road, she can play the spoiler making him weaker for the fall, alienating more of her crew or she can fall on her sword for the good of the party. I said it earlier today, if Obama lost North Carolina he should fall on his sword, he didn't he won big, so why can't Hillary do the same?

May 6, 2008 8:40 PM

Rhubarbs said:

Because, blackton, Hillary doesn't have a sword to fall on. Only knives, and it's anatomically impossible to stab oneself in the back. Therefore there will be no seppuku for Hillary.

May 6, 2008 9:10 PM

virginiacentrist said:

If I saw a video of Hillary Clinton's lifeless body being tossed into an incinerator, I still wouldn't believe she was going to drop out. Bill Clinton would liquify her corpse and carry it around from state to state. 2025 isn't the number of delegates you need to win. It's the year when Hillary Clinton will drop out of this race.

May 6, 2008 9:26 PM

mmathog said:

Yeah, it's over, a 20 point loss (maybe 15) in N.C. and what? A 4-5 point win (maybe) in Indiana?

Obama is saying May 20th.... I think the superdels should swing en masse now. Very poor Indiana showing by HRC.

May 6, 2008 9:37 PM

dbhuff said:

Door is closed, the light is out, the butter is getting hard (yeah, I know a rip off), say g'nite Hillary...

May 6, 2008 9:37 PM

AaronBBrown said:

It was over for Clinton months ago, but she doesn't have the class or the good graces to accept defeat, so she'll go on to Denver, where I predict she will come up completely lame, with the Clinton legacy and brand forever shattered like the legs of Eight Belles.  And as Hillary writhes about on the convention floor in the final agonizing death throes of her campaign she will have to be put down, humanely euthanized for her sake and the sake of the nation.

May 6, 2008 9:39 PM

roidubouloi said:

It was over for Hillary when she came up short in TX-OH-Vt-RI on March 3.  Someday someone will explain why we have had to endure this charade for two more months.  She has finally run out of track.

May 6, 2008 9:57 PM

Crock1701 said:

www.youtube.com/watch

Billy Packer, where are you?

May 6, 2008 10:04 PM

sabatia said:

Rhubarbs, What a wonderful almost fittingly militarististic poetic metaphor for a certain presidential aspirant's character. She has also been playing the "Christian" lately.

I particularly loved in your post responding to the previous post:

'BL: '"or she can fall on her sword for the good of the party. I said it earlier today, if Obama lost North Carolina he should fall on his sword, he didn't he won big, so why can't Hillary do the same?'"

'Rhubarbs said: "Because, blackton, Hillary doesn't have a sword to fall on. Only knives, and it's anatomically impossible to stab oneself in the back. Therefore there will be no seppuku for Hillary.'"

May 6, 2008 10:11 PM

Rhubarbs said:

As to the question at hand, "Is It Over for Hillary?" the answer has been, and remains, "Has she run out of money yet?" The instant she runs out of money (and by money, I mean the ability to schedule TV ads, whether with cash or credit), she will end her campaign with much fanfare and a stirring speech about what a wonderful journey it has been and how much she has learned about this great country and blah blah blah.

Until then, Hillary's shambling, brain-eating zombie of a campaign will continue. Simple as that.

May 6, 2008 10:22 PM

guyminuslife said:

Not to steal Crock1701's YouTube thunder, but perhaps...

www.youtube.com/watch

...is more appropriate.

May 6, 2008 10:40 PM

gabbage said:

Maybe we'll see a four-way battle between McCain-Obama-Clinton-Bloomberg. And Ron Paul.

May 6, 2008 10:51 PM

odanuki1 said:

Yes , it is.  Now it's time for Obama and his supporters to be exceedingly gracious to Clinton and hers.

May 7, 2008 12:24 AM

Rhubarbs said:

I just threw Obama bumper stickers in with the presents we're mailing to my mother and my mother-in-law for Mother's Day. Sending chocolates, fruity tea, books, and an Obama bumper sticker to Democratic women of distinguished age: Does that count as being gracious to Clinton supporters?

Other suggestions for gently wooing Hillaristas back to the Democratic Party are welcome.

May 7, 2008 8:23 AM

cleavet said:

Hillary would not have made a good President as she sorely lacks executive skill. Hillary Clinton in the Senate is excellent for the country as her policy and legislative talents are formidable.

The US is safer, stronger, and more decent with Senator Clinton in public service.

May 7, 2008 10:45 AM

The Stump said:

Jay Cost of Real Clear Politics has an interesting post laying out Hillary's unlikely, but not impossible

May 9, 2008 12:37 PM