TNR BLOGS

July 04, 2009 | 8:16 AM
July 03, 2009 | 7:55 PM
July 03, 2009 | 7:37 PM

March 09, 2009 | 5:19 PM
March 09, 2009 | 5:16 PM
January 07, 2009 | 12:20 PM

July 01, 2009 | 10:33 PM
June 30, 2009 | 8:42 AM
June 29, 2009 | 9:09 AM

July 26, 2008 | 2:24 PM
July 23, 2008 | 1:55 PM
July 17, 2008 | 3:56 PM

July 03, 2009 | 10:13 PM
July 02, 2009 | 12:57 PM
July 01, 2009 | 7:02 PM
COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
06.05.2008
Drudging Expectations

In the strange world of election-day spin, when I see Drudge quoting some Clintonite who ruefully concedes that Hillary might lose North Carolina by as much as 15 points, I imediately assume that means Hillary will come significantly closer than 15 points. As we've noted before in this space, the trajectory of elite expectations on voting days can affect coverage of the actual result, which creates a big incentive to manipulate said elites. (But this also makes me doubt that her camp thinks they're going to win, or they wouldn't set such an absurdly low bar.)

Anyway, I keep thinking this should be the theme song for every primary day:

 

--Michael Crowley 

Posted: Tuesday, May 06, 2008 3:45 PM with 15 comment(s)

Comments

You must be logged-in to comment.

Not a subscriber? Click here to get a digital or print and digital subscription to The New Republic!

schrek2000 said:

I dunno, dude. Zogby Tracking released its last poll today for the 4th/5th showing Obama plus 14(!!) in North Carolina, making it a way outlier to the other two polls of similar size for the same days showing him up by maybe 3 or 4.

It's all too crazy, convoluted and self serving but thankfully will be resolved within the next six hours.

May 6, 2008 4:22 PM

sabatia said:

At the same youtube site, you can see and hear Salt of the Earth, with the refrain: "Let's drink to the hardworking people.. " Reminds me very much of Hillary's solidarity with the working class. She doesn't just feel for them--she is one of them. For this brief moment.

May 6, 2008 4:26 PM

drdannyu said:

Far, far more confounding than any election day puzzle (Hillary using Drudge to get her spin out, spinning a loss as not as catastrophic as you supposedly "feared," inveighing against oil companies while simultaneously advocating for a policy that's such a gift to them it should come with a bow) is the fact that the man singing in this video has slept with numerous supermodels.  

May 6, 2008 4:28 PM

bcbaird said:

What?  No "Tumbling Dice"?

May 6, 2008 4:28 PM

liberal reformer said:

Thanks for posting the video of that ancient Stones' song. Indeed, it could be universally adopted by all candidates. Hillary's camp is clearly low - balling expectations, positioning her to claim a moral victory if she does any better than tanking. Obama by 10.

May 6, 2008 4:32 PM

williamyard said:

...Well you can cool it, you can heat it

'Cause baby I don't need it

Take your TV tube and eat it

An all that phony stuff on sports

An all the unconfirmed reports

You know I watch that rotten box

Until my head begin to hurt

From checkin out the way

The newsmen say they get the dirt

Before the guys on channel so-and-so

And further they assert

That any show they'll interrupt

To bring you news if it comes up

They say that if the place blows up

They will be the first to tell

Because the boys they got downtown

Are workin hard and doin swell

And if anybody gets the news

Before it hits the street

They say that no one blabs it faster

Their coverage can't be beat......

......If all that you can ever be,

Is just a lousy janitor

Unless your uncle owns the store

You know that five in every four

Just won't amount to nothin more

Gonna watch the rats go across the floor

And make up songs about being poor.

Blow your harmonica, son.

[F. Zappa, "Trouble Every Day"]

May 6, 2008 4:39 PM

lymon1 said:

I just got back from Las Vegas a few weeks ago -- Las Vegas' charms are largely lost on this prudish fuddyduddy, but seeing all the Jimmy Buffett fans walking around with parrot puppets on their heads leads me to suggest "Changes in Attitude, Changes in Lattitude" (or is it vice-versa -- the only Buffett song I really dig is "Cheeseburger in Paradise")

May 6, 2008 5:30 PM

mollysimon said:

That was riveting.  I'd love to have seen him in his prime.  His performance seems so genuine, not so contrived.  He's become a parody of himself.   Going to a Stones concert now is like watching the undead in Vegas.

Dr. Danny, you ain't a woman, that's for sure.  

May 6, 2008 5:54 PM

ralphnelle said:

We've seen it so many times it's predictable through and through. This was written before it started:

"The day begins with the Clinton campaign “leaking” something to the Drudge Report to set expectations for the day. That then gets repeated on political blogs and cable news, where Clinton surrogate Terry McAuliffe elaborates. Today’s “expectation”: That the Clinton campaign expects a “15 point” defeat in North Carolina. Clinton’s yapping puppies in the news media repeat the manufactured expectation all day long, in which the bar is supposedly now that if Clinton comes within 15 points in that state that she has somehow “won” with a 14 point (or 6 point) defeat."

Now if Judis/Cohn would please write a piece on Obama's working class whites issues, we'll be par for the course.

May 6, 2008 6:03 PM

WoodyBombay said:

Mick has become a self-parody, for well on two decades now. But Back In The Day (which was before my time, honest, I'm not going all McCain on the reminiscing here) he was The Absolute Shit. Of course, maybe it's easy to be that good when you've got Keef at your side.

This show came right when they were hitting their stride. Even Beethoven didn't string together as many classics albums as they did from 1968 to 1972: Beggars Banquet, Let It Bleed, Get Your Ya-Ya's Out, Sticky Fingers, and then the capper, Exile on Main St.

Molly, check out the movie "Gimme Shelter." It's mostly about Altamont, but there also are some great concert clips from their Madison Square Garden concert that year ('69).

May 6, 2008 6:17 PM

blackton said:

my work blocks the videos, can anyone enlighten me on who and what the song is?

May 6, 2008 6:43 PM

ironyroad said:

Once I saw some b/w footage of the Stones playing a gig in Santa Monica, CA, in 1965.  Farking incredible!  They looked dangerous and smart, with Mick moving around the stage like a junior devil going through bilocation training.

May 6, 2008 7:41 PM

WoodyBombay said:

Blackton, if you're still here, it's the Stones doing "No Expectations," From "The Rolling Stones Rock and Roll Circus."

May 7, 2008 12:29 PM

mollysimon said:

Woody, watched Altamont years ago, but I'll check it out again.  I don't think I "got it" it the last time.

What I couldn't get over here was the expressiveness of his face.  I always thought there was an insincerity to his act, but actually he was completely committed.  He really was pouring himself into his performance.

I've struggled with my love of the Stones lately.  As an old lady in her forties, I'm tired of that definite strain of misogyny.  I can't "ironize" it anymore.

May 7, 2008 12:48 PM

liberal reformer said:

Mollysimon: There's always the Good Stones - Ruby Tuesday, Lady Jane, As Tears Go By, Waiting on a Friend, you know, tunes like that.

WoodyBombay: That you should be rocking at his age. Not to mention the Super Bowl appearance.

May 7, 2008 8:07 PM