I don't understand why the Hillaristas complain that you are all in the tank for Obama.  When she produces a weak win in PA, which is her turf, you see a change in momentum.  When he produces a virtual draw in IN, also her turf, and a huge win in NC, his turf, you say "nothing has changed."

It is correct that nothing has changed since Super-Tuesday, except a slight gain for Obama in every round of voting while the pool from which Hillary might recoup her huge deficit dwindles.  That's called Obama winning and Hillary losing, but you are incapable of saying so.

The whole concept of momentum is so much hokum anyway unless you first consider the performance versus the demographics, something the TNR editors seem completely unable to wrap their minds around.  Professional political managers would find your approach to election analysis just plain silly.  I manage campaigns, albeit only local ones, and I find it silly.

TNR should fire everyone on the election beat, with the exception of Eve Fairbanks and Michelle Cottle, and hire virginiacentrist and rhubarbs to do your analysis.  It would improve your work substantially.

Is this a woman thing?  Why is it the women seem to know how to analyze elections and the men don't?

What happened tonight is that Hillary failed to win either contest by the 69-31 margin she needed to be on pace to overtake Obama's delegate lead. Now she needs to win all remaining contests (and unpledged superdelegates) by a margin of 80-20 to win the nomination. Not "to stay in the race" or "demonstrate momentum," but "win the nomination." Because in the end this really is about actual delegates casting actual votes, and tonight Hillary got even further away from winning a delegate majority, and therefore the nomination.

Did anything really happen tonight?

Let's see.  If one understands that Hillary has only lost ground since Super-Tuesday and that the pool of as yet unelected delegates from which she can recoup her approximately 170 pledged delegate deficit has now dwindled to only 217, I would say that something happened.  Even the mathematically challenged should not be able to see that not only can Hillary no longer win, she no longer has enough raw material with which to produce a perception of momentum that might influence super-delegates.

Hence, what happened tonight is that Hillary finally ran out of track.  From here on out, it is all just going through the motions.

Moreover, it wasn't a disappointment for Obama. I think the key is the bleeding has stopped, a Clinton 'win' (small loss in NC, big win in IN) would have put further in doubt Obama's closing. Instead, he looks like he's back on track. IN is still getting closer, it may be an actual statistical tossup when counted. Zogby is redeemed. So the narrative about Obama disappointing ended, and the narrative shifts to Obama performing. That's a huge shift in mo...

"Did Anything Really Happen Tonight?"

Hmm, let me think.  

Oh yeah, Barack Obama became the de facto Democratic nominee for President of the United States.

roid, I think Noam did say something happened. I agree the numbers have really run down for HRC. Not the least her campaign debt...

Also, as Chuck Todd is saying right now: Hillary can no longer win the national Popular vote, EVEN WITH MICHIGAN AND FLORIDA.

What's the new goalpost to keep Hillary alive now, media?

Also, Russert just called Obama as the Democratic nominee.  The talk on MSNBC right now is: Is this over?  And the consensus seems to be that it is.

Ya, you'd have to be pretty detached from this race to think nothing happened tonight. For anyone clued in, this is basically the second New Hampshire.

roidubouloi  ,

Remember that TNR is hellbent on bucking the conventional wisdom, regardless of how silly that makes their positions. Let's not forget that they speculated seriously about an Obama loss in Hawaii. So, since the consensus tonight is that this is a disaster for Hillary *by just about every measure*, they need to counter that with something implausible, which they've done here.

All of that said, I am sure one of them (Cohn or Judis) will post something later tonight that argues why this is actually a big win for Hillary. Hope so. It'll be another gem to add to the files.

Yeah. Something happened tonight.

Clinton got exactly the opposite of the results she needed and (apparently) expected. The road to the nomination for her now looks improbable in the extreme. She has nothing to feed the superdelegates--not a lead in pledged delegates, not a lead in votes, not a lead in states, not a hemorrhaging opponent--and she can expect them to start bailing to Obama in droves. Nobody wants to be the last superdelegate to jump on the winning ticket.  

She lost her one great hope--that the last month, with Bittergate and Wrightgate, had crippled Obama's ability to compete. He's weathered the storm. The supers will take note, and so will the media and the voters.

And she's lost her appeal to contributors. Her campaign is bankrupt--in debt, actually--and who's going to give her the cash she needs to get back in the black, much less compete? Well, from what I'm hearing, it might be _Obama_ who gives her the cash to close out her books, as part of a deal to bow out gracefully.

Most important, she lost the media narrative. Russert, Matthews, Olberman, Buchannan, et al--all have essentially declared Obama the nominee apparent. Say what you will about the media narrative (I won't say what I would--I'd lose my posting privileges), but it _matters_.

So. That's what happened tonight.

It's over.

dbhuff,

I realize that Scheiber did say that something happened, just not the thing that happened.  He reports it as though Obama manage to stall "momentum" for Hillary.  But she had no momentum.  She hasn't gained a thing since Super-Tuesday.  What Obama did is finish off not only the delegate race and the popular vote race but the opportunity for Hillary to produce momentum that she hasn't yet and so, in theory, change the perception of the super-delegates, blah, blah, blah.  As of tonight, he has gained net ground in every round of voting since the beginning in January and, also as of tonight, finished off her momentum spin -- she has not produced any, ever, and there are no longer enough unelected delegates with which to produce anything more than a sputter.

Accordingly, he just won.  He didn't merely prove that the Wright thing won't sink him, as Scheiber would have it.  He finished her off.  The zombie Hillary can keep running is her donors will continue to fund her, but it is meaningless from here on out.

I would say Scheiber sort of missed the story.

roid, now is the time for a cool head and a steady hand. I agree that Eve rocks, but the rest of the TNR election team has performed at a level well above that of their peers generally. No calls for summary firings, please.

Tonight was a smashing success for Obama, and therefore a very good day for the urgent Democratic campaign to kick the GOP out of the White House. Pour yourself some bourbon or other American libation, read a few pages of pre-Civil War Whitman, and savor the victory. I suggest these verses:

www.bartleby.com/.../108.html

www.bartleby.com/.../109.html

www.bartleby.com/.../172.html

www.bartleby.com/.../177.html

Well, ralph, that might explain it.  

I just had to correct Cohn over on his blog when he stated that Obama has been lagging McCain in the polls.  If you look at RealClearPolitics, you can easily see that Obama, unlike Hillary, has been leading McCain almost all the time since April 11, 2007, with only a few very short periods, five weeks in total, that he has briefly fallen behind McCain.  

Seems like people have a hard time with numbers.  They prefer their "momentum" impressions and spin to any sort of actual data or data analysis.

Thanks rhubarbs,

I think I shall.  It may take a little while for this to sink in.  Oddly, to me anyway, the MSM seems to have figured it out while the pundits here waffle.  Tomorrow will be a beautiful day.

final proof that this is over: pccostello isn't arguing with folks on this thread.  Good enough for me to break out the bubbly.

And WHY isn't pccostello here?  He/she got his/her pink slip, that's why.

Yes something happened - Obama finaly has a chance to stop those stomach problems from turning him into a stress induced scare crow.  

Roidubouloi: What a ridiculuous suggestion. Jonathan Chait is a superb analyst and political writer and very few of the bloggers come anywhere close to the level of analysis and quality of writing of the TNR staff. That is why there are where they are.

You're right, liberal.  I should not have lumped Chait in with the others.

I suppose the only question left to be settled is:

Will Obama be the nominee of at least a relatively settled, if not wholly unified, Democratic Party,

or

Will Obama be the nominee of whatever tattered shards of Democratic Party remain after Hillary detonates whatever rhetorical or campaign-tactical nuclear device she and her folks are working on right now?  

Because "what happened" is that this is all she has left, and I am apparently less confident than others that she won't use it.