Obama by 13 in NC, Hillary by 5 in IN

I agree with Mike that a North Carolina loss would be a disaster for Obama. But we're also starting

Remember, Hillary has to win every remaining contest, including North Carolina, by at least 69-31 just to tie Obama in pledged delegates. Come back and talk "disaster" when you see a poll showing Hillary up by a margin of 38 in NC. Until then, it's all just empty shifting-media-perceptions rhetoric, not actual math-of-the-election-changing reality.

Can you check the USAToday poll -- I am pretty sure it is NOT likely voters.  Toward the end of the article it says, referring to the daily tracking poll:

"The two surveys were taken over the same days, but the tracking poll includes more interviews and a higher proportion of interviews taken on Saturday. It reflects the views of those seen as likely voters; the USA TODAY results include all Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who were called."

Gallup's daily tracking poll is likely voters (not sure where they are likely to vote) and the CBS/NYT poll results you cite are likely primary voters (there are more favorable results to HRC among all Dem identifiers, like with the USAToday poll.)

These polls are not dueling -- they are apples and oranges.  I think First Read is getting its knickers in a twist over this without doing its homework.

Surely Obama is going to take North Carolina (O. by ten). Hillary will win Indiana (by 5?) and this depressing race will slog on. I don't see Hillary flipping enough superdelegates - absent another Wright - like crater event - to overcome Obama's lead. So after June 3, the party heavyweights (Dean, Gore, Pelosi, et. al.) will begin calling for Hillary to withdraw. She may or may not and if the latter is the case then we slouch toward the Bethlehem that is the convention in late August. If this  transpires, is anyone for Gov. Phil Bredesen's idea - which he broached in a New York Times op - ed earlier this year -  calling for a convention of superdelegates to choose a candidate in advance of the Democratic Party's national convention?

Seconding Rhubarb, just look at Eve Fairbanks's posts above.  The supers are the game, and the supers are going to go the way the pledge delegates go.  No matter what the NC results.

And I'm with VAC.  Obama by 8-13 in Carolina.  And whichever post it was mentioning the poll showing black voters breaking away from Obama, forget about that one too.  That's just sheer nonsense.  

liberal,

It won't be necessary to wait until August.  If Obama does well in NC, the supers will fall off the fence relying on the general recognition that she cannot catch up with him.  If he does poorly, or god forbid, loses in NC, then it may slog on until June 3, at which point, the outcome of the primaries then being known, the supers will fall off the fence.  Either way they are falling in Obama's direction unless he craters in the opinion polls and right now he seems to have bottomed on Wright and is coming back up.  

OR they may just call it after NC regardless of the outcome in that race because they decide this is simply too damaging for the party -- having a Democratic senator and former First Lady running a Republican campaign against the party's nominee that, unlike the Republican's actual campaign, Obama cannot easily meet without risking the alienation of Democratic voters and a loss in November.  OR Obama may finally start to rattle his saber a little bit about how he has no choice but to go after Hillary, throw the kitchen sink back ("Senator Clinton is the second most disliked and distrusted politician in America next to George Bush.  She needs to explain to the Democratic party why she believes she can win a national election when she is already viewed unfavorably by 54% of the voters and regarded as untrustworthy by 58% of the voters, and that's before the Republican campaign has begun.") AND/OR if this keeps on, black Congressmen may start letting the DNC leadership know what they are going to do if this goes on -- play the race card with their constituents they way Hillary has played the feminist victim card with hers -- and they will scare the living crap out of the DNG which will then press the supers to call it over.

Win or lose tomorrow, Obama holds all the cards.  But will he play them if he has to?

liberal, I dunno, I am still kind of hoping for a Gore/Obama ticket. The only object is to win, right?

Actually, blackton,

Winning the presidency is not the only object.  Firm control of both houses of Congress, ideally filibuster-proof in the Senate, is much more important.  Being in a position actually to address the huge problems we face matters too.  Hillary Clinton slashing and burning her way to the presidency in the finest traditions of George Bush and Karl Rove is not going to make that possible.  Four years later, everything is worse and the Dems are now to blame, the pendulum swings strongly the other way and the kleptocrats return to power.

So, no, the overall health of the Democratic party is actually for important to the future of the country than winning the presidency this year.

Dunno if this means anything, but when the NC *Dem* governor got on stage during the NC J-J dinner last week, he was booed by the DEMOCRATIC audience.  Easley endorsed HRC last week.  I predicted that Easley's endorsement will mean little to HRC since he's so disliked, and it might actually hurt her a bit.  I knew Easley's popularity justifiably plunged in the last few months but not to the extent to hear him booed by party faithful.

If anything good comes of all of this it's Easley will be gone in January and local TV stations will finally be rid of annoying political ads.  We'll get an added bonus in November if Elizabeth Dole is booted from the Senate.

" is anyone for Gov. Phil Bredesen's idea - which he broached in a New York Times op - ed earlier this year -  calling for a convention of superdelegates to choose a candidate in advance of the Democratic Party's national convention?"

Yeah, Al Gore, let him pick his own veep (probably Obama, certainly *not Clinton*). I'm beginning to think Obama's metal (sic) isn't sufficiently tempered - needs more ground and pound experience to take on the big one and survive, if only politically.

roidubouloi, to blackton:

"So, no, the overall health of the Democratic party is actually for important to the future of the country than winning the presidency this year."

Amen.