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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
01.05.2008
Pander Bears

Jon and Noam are betting the current gas-tax debate will be a political winner for Obama. But I wonder if they're too smart--or maybe informed is the better word--for their own good. In the short run-up to Indiana and North Carolina I'm not sure how many voters are going to absorb the substantive vacuity of the Hillary-McCain gas-tax-holiday. Jon cites Mark Schmitt's line that "it's not what you say about the issues, it's what the issues say about you." But what if in this case the issue says not that Obama is an independent reformer but simply that Hillary is fretting about cash-strapped blue-collar folks while Obama is up in an ivory tower? I'm obviously not saying that's a true characterization. I'm just saying that politicians engage in stupid pandering because it works, and it's tricky to pull off a successful anti-pander. (Ask Bill Clinton how Paul Tsongas' Social Security-related "pander bear" complaints worked out in the 1992 Florida primary.) The smart blogospheric reaction has been killing Hillary and hailing Obama--and substantively that's appropriate--but I wonder if people are also conflating good policy with good politics in a wishful way. We live in the world as it is, unfortunately...

--Michael Crowley

Posted: Thursday, May 01, 2008 6:15 PM with 22 comment(s)

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virginiacentrist said:

According to Pew, Obama is bleeding white moron supporters to Hillary faster than you can say "Geraldine Ferraro" or "Affirmative Action Candidacy" or "OMG....He knows radical black people he must be one of them misbehavin' jivin' blacks!" The key to winning these idiots back is beating Hillary on bread and butter issues.

My initial gut reaction when this all started was that this issue was a winner for Hillary no matter what Obama said, because it took too much nuance to explain his absurdly correct position. But maybe it's a good play to some of Hillary's older supporters who have seen their share of gimmicks in their day and have lived through other energy crises. These are the type of voters who read newspapers. The press coverage for Hillary's plan has been universally horrid. (I believe that) both the AP and Reuters have run stories on how bad the plan is (meaning it's hit every newspaper, large and small). The Pelosi hit today was also important (will Obama cut an ad? At the very least he'll quote her in a mail piece).

I imagine that George S. will hit her on it next Sunday after 58 minutes of attempting to egg her into talking about Obama's controversial associations.

May 1, 2008 7:51 PM

LISAH said:

"substantive vacuity"   Good one. Perfectly describes this campaign, along with the 3 choices now in the race and whichever 2 we'll have in November.

May 1, 2008 8:15 PM

virginiacentrist said:

Whoops I take that back about older voters. They seem to be interested in the short term (statement from an older Indiana voter:

blogs.abcnews.com/.../older-hoosier-t.html

Here's her highly coherent statement: "well, even if this tax that we pay on gasoline and the big oil companies would be paying that -- although it is a short term thing as you say -- why can't it be made this money that the oil companies to pay it into that fund that takes care of roads, bridges and stuff, and we can still get some relief on this gas, even if it is short term, and a lot of us are nothing but short termers anyway?" She later added, "When's Matlock?"

I guess it makes sense that Hillary's platform features gimmicky short term fixes. Maybe her campaign slogan should be:

"Hillary Clinton for President: The Fierce Urgency of Now...Because You're Going to Die Soon."

May 1, 2008 8:34 PM

thetraytiger said:

VC, along those same lines:

Chris Rock on John McCain's age: "How you gonna make decisions about the future when you ain't gonna be here?"

May 1, 2008 9:28 PM

thetraytiger said:

Also, did you see the video of that Hoosier woman's question?  VERY awkward chuckles at the end there after her "[we're] nothing but short termers anyway" comment.

May 1, 2008 9:33 PM

virginiacentrist said:

thetraytiger: haha, that's pretty funny.

I can't wait until democratic surrogates unconnected to the Obama campaign mock McCain's age. Will it turn off older voters? Hell no. The sad truth is that even old people don't want to be old.

May 1, 2008 9:49 PM

virginiacentrist said:

I hate to be an ass about old people in this election...and about uneducated white people...but let me explain myself:

1. Old people are buying the muslim smear hook, line, and sinker.

2. Uneducated white people are buying the radical black man smear hook, line, and sinker.

I resent this.

May 1, 2008 9:53 PM

tnmats said:

This all proves my point: love doesn't make the world go 'round, it's stupidity that makes the world go 'round.  Americans always want something for nothing; look at the credit mess we're in for proof.  The gas tax is another example.

And for VACentrist's contention #2, ain't it the truth.  I went ballistic at my father for bring up that subject.  I just could not believe him remotely believing those lies.  I still wonder how the US got so powerful; doesn't that require brains?

May 1, 2008 10:38 PM

tnmats said:

Hillary is the better panderer, so I say we Obama supporters make this deal with her:

She can have the nomination and see how that works out in November.  When she looses the election, she promises to fade away for good.  Bill goes with her, both never to be heard from again.  Deal?

May 1, 2008 10:40 PM

dbhuff said:

No deal, after 4 years of McCain or HRC, we will be even worse off than now...

May 1, 2008 11:12 PM

anonevent said:

tnmats,

You wouldn't actually have to promise that.  The only thing keeping the Clinton's in power is that Bill was the last Dem to be president.  If she lost the election, he would completely lose his control of the Democratic party.  

May 1, 2008 11:30 PM

GSpinks said:

VC, do I sense bitterness? :O

This gas-tax-holiday thing can't blow up big enough for me. I think it goes straight to the distinction Obama has been making between himself and all other candidates.

www.youtube.com/watch

May 2, 2008 1:15 AM

dbarrr said:

vacentrist - As an educated white person for Clinton (and a young male to boot) I resent your resentment. Now... who's resentment is more resentful?

May 2, 2008 1:49 AM

Wandreycer1 said:

dbarr - congratulations on your cool privledged identity stuff!  Just wondring why you resent VC's resentment - is his disgust of bigotry and ignorance a problem?

May 2, 2008 6:48 AM

virginiacentrist said:

dbarr/Wandreycer1::

I think dbarr is joking on the resentment.

Of course there are millions of well educated HRC supporters. But over the aggregate, they trend towards Obama heavily. I don't mean to imply that Hillary's supporters aren't smart - I'm really implying that Hillary's unsmart supporters aren't smart.

Oh and let me add #3 - the Clinton economic brand matters to many of these folks. So that's a legitimate issue.

May 2, 2008 7:06 AM

Rhubarbs said:

Oh and let me add #3 - the Clinton economic brand matters to many of these folks. So that's a legitimate issue.

But that's just as illegitimate an issue as #1 and #2. Hillary had nothing to do with the economic policies of the 1990s. In fact she argued against some of the key Clinton administration economic decisions in 1993 and 1994, the decisions that made the difference for the decade, which came curing the two years when she actually had a seat at the grown-ups table. Preferring Hillary on the economy because of her husband's record 14 years ago makes as much sense as saying Sprite is better for breakfast than Tropicana orange juice because Coke, which owns Sprite, tastes better than Pepsi, which owns Tropicana.

May 2, 2008 8:54 AM

purcellneil said:

VC

I would hate to speculate about who gets the incoherent old person / moronic white guy vote in the fall, and whether these are the swing voters that will replace the so-called values voters in 2008.

I'd prefer to believe that Americans are ready for someone who doesn't pander to their weaknesses and limitations.  Even the moronic voters should be able to see that Obama is a better choice than McCain, but if we need to be sure to get their vote, Hillary may be our best bet.

For now, I'll continue to believe in America -- and I'll continue to support Obama.

Neil

May 2, 2008 11:40 AM

virginiacentrist said:

Rhubarbs -

Well yeah, it's a bit silly, because Presidents' have little to do with economic policy, but Bill will be a large part of the next Clinton administration. It's not TOTALLY illogical, and it's not racist. It's at least 10 steps  better than "Dag nabbit my friend Edna sent me this email that said Obama's a Muslim. Also, KFC uses mutant chicken-like organisms with 15 legs. That's why they changed their name from Kentucky Fried Chicken to KFC! Also, 48% of elementary school children in this one school district in San Francisco refuse to say the pledge."

I saw some polling that had an absurd amount of HRC supporters believing that Obama is a muslim. Like the upper teens...

May 2, 2008 11:45 AM

Environment and Energy said:

There are two things going on with high gasoline prices. From an environmental standpoint, these are

May 2, 2008 12:55 PM

ironyroad said:

VAc, I don't think it's that older white folks are uneducated and gullible and buy into the "secret muslim" story.  It's more that they are looking for a reason to dislike/distrust/not vote for Obama, and that legend -- patently incredible though it is -- gives them the reason.

May 2, 2008 5:37 PM

The Stump said:

A couple of random thoughts heading into the May 6 primaries: 1.) There are four polls out today that

May 5, 2008 6:36 PM

The Stump said:

On MSNBC, Russert says the Obama camp is convinced that the gas tax debate worked to their favor, in

May 6, 2008 9:57 PM

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