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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
29.04.2008
Where's Oprah?

You can't help thinking she'd be helpful to Obama right now. Not only is Oprah exceedingly popular among working-class white women--a killer demographic for Obama--she's also the second-most famous person in the world who can claim Jeremiah Wright as her "ex-pastor." (Or is Oprah more famous than Obama? Not sure.) How much of a coup would it be for Obama if she outed herself as a one-time Trinity congregant who's completely mystified by Wright's publicity tour? An Obama appearance on her show would be even better...

But a quick database search reveals that she's been almost completely AWOL from the campaign since at least the week before March 4. I'm not entirely sure why that is, though it could have something to do with her own bottom--er, bottom line. I doubt the Wright association would be great for business. Heck, according to this Politico story from early April, even the Obama association was costly:

But by the time Fox News/Opinion Dynamics asked Americans about their attitudes toward Oprah in a survey conducted about 10 days later, Dec. 18-19, Oprah’s favorability ratings had dropped even further--to 55 percent--the lowest level of favorability ever registered for Oprah in opinion surveys. Oprah’s negatives also spiked, with one in three respondents (33 percent) reporting unfavorable impressions of her.

The results of a March 26, 2008, AOL Television popularity poll of television hosts reveal Americans may now embrace Ellen DeGeneres over Oprah by a wide margin. Forty-six percent of the 1.35 million people who participated in the poll said the daytime talk show host that “made their day” was Ellen, compared with only 19 percent who chose Oprah. Nearly half (47 percent) said they would rather dine with Ellen, compared with 14 percent who preferred Oprah.

So I don't expect to see Oprah boosting Obama any time soon. (Though, just in case, I've e-mailed the campaign to see if there are any plans for this. I'll update if necessary.)

Update: My colleague Chris Orr says Oprah is more famous than Obama, and I'm at a loss to disagree with him. I'd chalk up Chris's superior instincts on this question to his extensive entertainment-industry knowledge. But that excuse doesn't really wash. Oprah's advantage is pretty much self-evident when you think about it.  

--Noam Scheiber

Posted: Tuesday, April 29, 2008 1:34 PM with 10 comment(s)

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Tammy said:

I always thought it was a it dangerous for Oprah to endorse Obama so enthusiastically when her auidence and market were/are so overwhlemingly white and female.  Of course, such choices are personal and to be respected.  Oprah only needs to answer to herself.  Her market's response to her endorsement and activities may, however, be what's keeping her silent.  I agree that Oprah could help Obama, but she could also damage herself.  Wright should be more like Oprah, i.e. staying silent.  Let me know what you find out, Noam.  I'm expecting the same as you are.

p.s. I think Oprah is not only more famous than Obama, but also more powerful.  Any chance she can endorse academic books?  haha!

April 29, 2008 2:02 PM

dcshungu said:

So I don't expect to see Oprah boosting Obama any time soon. (Though, just in case, I've e-mailed the campaign to see if there are any plans for this. I'll update if necessary.)

--Noam Scheiber

Soft bigotry of low expectations. Have you ever really believed that Obama is capable of doing his own heavy-lifting? We you're not doing it at TNR you're always  looking for someone who can bail out Obama. But guess what? Wright is Obama's "problem" to take care of alone. He had the chance in his great speech to do it but he minced his words, and now the "problem" came back even bigger. The only way for Obama to deal with this would be for him to completely, fully and publicly repudiate and disown Rev. Wright. The blue-collar whites would cheer him but  the African-Americans would disown Obama in a big way in SC, which he could not lose without losing the nomination.

Rock on one side and hard on the other...In the middle is Obama and not Oprah...

April 29, 2008 2:29 PM

teplukhin2you said:

Gotta protect that Q rating. That's what drives the cash flow.

As with Wright, the now-you-see-her, now-you-don't episode with Oprah should teach Young Obama that there's no such thing as a permanent friend (or a permanent enemy) in politics.

Clue for BHO: Wright is not your friend. He's your worst enemy right now, and needs to be treated accordingly.

April 29, 2008 2:29 PM

ralphnelle said:

Obama just hammered Wright: outraged, saddened, not the man he once knew, spectacle-artist, he's had enough, etc. But I don't think this goes far enough. He needs to condemn Wright as a peddler of poison, the type of person who hurts black people as much as or more than he helps them.

April 29, 2008 3:01 PM

Tammy said:

Just read the storyon CNN, Ralph.  Thanks for the heads up.  I agree with you; it's not enough.  the press conference is tricky. Let's see how much damage he can neutralize.  

April 29, 2008 3:19 PM

michael said:

I thought the Oprah bump was healthy in late '07 but Barack only needed pledges from the supers after early March. The lure of campaign dollars in future primaries (a slow economy, stupid) clouded the judgment in remaining states as well as the media so pulling the switch on Hillary meant kissing off tens of millions.

Barack hasn't needed the help of Oprah and this should have ended with the admission of 'not enough' for Clinton in Ohio and Texas and the trouncing in Virginia but Primary Industry Inc. was too tempting. Maybe Oprah was wise to not make remaining states more valuable. Why by lend her brand to the ratings? This Circus is making everyone money and no one can afford to see it end but Obama.

I wonder if Obama might have used his dollars more wisely and inferred that "The $40 million a month would be best spent in _____ if I was welcomed by the local leaders."  

Jeeze, the guy dumps a million bucks a day into Pennsylvania and the machine cashes the checks and then insults him. A fine way to treat the probable winner and they won't be able to jump on his coat-tails quickly enough.

April 29, 2008 3:49 PM

jmkerr said:

"I always thought it was a it dangerous for Oprah to endorse Obama so enthusiastically when her auidence and market were/are so overwhlemingly white and female. "

Not just white and female, but white, female, and working class. It was incredibly dangerous, and if the Politico article is correct, she paid dearly.

Put another way, Oprah chose race over gender (instead of staying neutral) and so her audience paid her back.  I think she's staying put. Every so often, she learns that even her popularity has limits.

April 29, 2008 4:06 PM

Tammy said:

Jmkerr.  I didn't want to go as far as you did in my post, but I agree with you.  Many African-Americans I know see race as a more restricting force than gender.  Maybe Oprah feels the same.  I had two reactions to her endorsement.  I was disappointed and hoped she would remain silent.  Second, I wondered if it would hurt her businesses and stature.  Agreed.  Despite her billions, Oprah has real limitations.  I'll be interested in seeing what other big shots will let Obama fend for himself.  Wanna make any bets on DeNiro, Damon, Affleck, Clooney?  

April 29, 2008 4:28 PM

psantillana said:

Maybe she chose the candidate she actually likes best, rather than race or gender. Or, as my white boyfriend put it when Edwards dropped out: "OMG! How do I chose? My genitals or my skin? I don't know what to do!"

April 30, 2008 1:58 AM

pccostello said:

The probelm is that she had the sense to leave Wright quickly, while Obama hung out ofr 20 years. Oprah is an example of what Obama should have done and id not, so she can't help him much here.

April 30, 2008 7:19 AM

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