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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
29.04.2008
Second-Order Wright Effects

Elizabeth Edwards just did an interview on MSNBC and didn't sound like a woman on the verge of endorsing a candidate. (She said she didn't envision making an endorsement prior to the North Carolina primary, but didn't entirely rule it out when pressed because, she said, you never know if some change of circumstance might push you in one direction or the other.)

The interview got me thinking that the immediate benefit of the Wright press conference isn't that it puts the issue to rest, though it certainly could move us down that road. It's that it hems in high-profile people--superdelegates, wealthy donors, partisan pundits, etc.--who might otherwise have abandoned Obama on the expectation that everyone else might. Now they can't be so sure that voters will jump ship, and so they won't either.

In a nutshell, this freezes the people (i.e., political elites) who make decisions based on what they think other people think, if not the people who make decisions based on what they themselves think (i.e., most voters).

Update: Just to clarify, I'm not suggesting the superdelegates were on the verge of deserting Obama en masse. Just that we were starting to see some movement toward Hillary thanks to the feeling that Obama is more vulnerable than we'd assumed. This probably slows that momentum in the short-term, regardless of where voters end up coming down on the matter.   

--Noam Scheiber

Posted: Tuesday, April 29, 2008 3:26 PM with 10 comment(s)

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virginiacentrist said:

It also freezes TNR contributors' guesses about the thought process of political elites who make decisions based on what they think people who make decisions based on what they themselves think, think.

April 29, 2008 3:40 PM

jmkerr said:

The more likely second-order Wright effect just happened in Mississippi, where the Dem candidate denied that there was any link between him and Obama. He will probably end by asking Obama to remove his name from his presidential campaign website.

April 29, 2008 4:10 PM

michael said:

I agree Noam but a freeze for a day or even a week by the Edwards isn't enough to stop broadcasters from milking the remaining cash value of this circus, I mean ratings, from the remaining states.  Fine, Elizabeth is bitter, John's pride suffered the second blow in two cycles and plenty of delegates fear the wrath of Bill. But that is not why Mark Penn and his two careers was barely covered.

Until Obama closes down Primary Industry, Inc.? This will remain frozen with the advantage going to anyone who can create better ratings than the NBA playoff results. Hillary saw the addiction to nothing when ol' Bill was feeding the monster.  Maybe she figures that she is owed for the hours of programming her family provided?

April 29, 2008 4:17 PM

virginiacentrist said:

I'd explain movement recent movement towards Hillary as follows:

After a certain point of campaign saturation, any remaining superdelegates are either (a) secretly supporting Obama but waiting for Hillary to drop out or (b) completely torn between the two. We've reached that saturation point.

With Group B, we'll see a 50/50 split between Obama and Hillary - and they'll announce thanks to pressure from Howard Dean, who is privately telling people to hurry up. It's like flipping a coin, really. I imagine that about 50% of the remaining superdelegates are in group A and 50% are in group B. So I'd project a 75/25 superdelegate split between now and the end of the campaign - for Obama. This of course excludes add-ons.

April 29, 2008 5:31 PM

jobeek2 said:

Virginiacentrist, your first comment here was very funny and a propos :)

April 29, 2008 8:29 PM

matthawk said:

Good point Noam, I think you're right that it freezes things. It stops the bleeding which, while not massive was steady and could ultimately prove fatal. Now the question is will this whole ordeal "humanize" Obama in the same way that crying in New Hampshire seemed to humanize Hillary in some people's eyes. My bet is that Obama will get some sympathy as a result of all of this. People have been crying for a so-called "Sista Soulja" moment; well, this is it, folks (minus the cynical manipulation that characterized Clinton's original "Soulja moment"). I think he will get sympathy -- he should. This has got to have been painful for him, and you could see it in his face and hear it in his voice. This is much more personal than the usual sacrifices one has to make on the political hustings. I think he comes out of this stronger, more of a sympathetic character, more clearly understood, with a sharper focus, and a sharper message about his vision for a multi-racial, multi-ethnic, multi-cultural yet unified America. And it takes all that annoying pratter about a "Lincoln-Douglass Debate" right off the headlines. The people who should be worried are the ones in the Hillary Clinton camp.

April 30, 2008 12:08 AM

matthawk said:

Did anybody notice that Hillary lost a major fundraiser about two days ago, who defected and moved over to the Obama camp? Team Hillary is cracking at the seams. Many of the recent defectors say it is because they are disgusted with the way she is conducting her campaign and its fundamentally negative message and destructive impact on the Party. Maybe it doesn't matter how many states Hillary manages to win or lose from here on out; the die may already be cast by the implosion within as the crew abandons the ship out of sheer disgust (sorry to mix metaphors so badly).

April 30, 2008 12:13 AM

Annabella2 said:

Anecdotal evidence:  A very good and old  friend with whom I had almost coming to a parting of the roads since she could not understand my "Obamamania" called me as soon as his speech was over to tell me of her total change of heart and how impressive she found him and that she would no longer have any qualms voting for his in the general.

Of course it was hard... Wright did set out to destroy the Obama candidacy out of sheer "wounded narcissism..."  Shall I recount the ways?

He can not accept he is black... did any one else notice that curious statement about how he would not reject Farrakhan because he "did not make a slave, did not put me into chains and did not make me Black..."  Well Wright is neither a slave nor is he in chains... and of course Farrakhan didn't make him Black.  The God he purports to serve did.  So he has a problem with himself that for intents and purposes, Obama does not have, namely his Blackness... which is a hoot, because between in most other societies he'd be "White."

Obama had repudiated some of the statements in his Philadelphia speech... How dare he Wright thought.

But most unforgevable... Obama was getting far more limelight and was far more successfulk than Wright had ever been... the young whipper snapper.

And then should Obama prevail, where would Wright's nursing of grievance be?

It was a brilliant speech by Obama.  To the point and unequivocal, however deeply painful.  That's the second father who deserted him.

April 30, 2008 1:08 AM

Annabella2 said:

There is another second order Wright effect.  The more stage he got, the more "human" he seemed.  Unlike the sound bites, 90% of the time, Wright makes a lot of sense.  He is erudite and funny and wily as a fox.  Then 10% of the time he goes right off a cliff given half a chance.  That is his reputation in his own church.  So people get to see the whole man, intelligence, erudition, ego mania and all... it makes the whole relationship with Obama far more comprehensible, except for those for whom Wright has always been mainly an excuse.

April 30, 2008 1:10 AM

chmclean said:

Annabella -

You and I had exactly the same reaction to this whole episode. How painful this must be for Obama, who genuinely thought of this man as family - I believe him when he said so. And now to have been wounded, perhaps mortally, by him must be the most devastating kind of betrayal, second only to the abandonment of his actual father.

Carol

April 30, 2008 9:33 AM