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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
22.04.2008
Understanding the PA Numbers

Useful reminder from Brendan Loy:

it's very important for us, and even moreso the media, to remember that Obama almost always does well in the leaked, unweighted exit polls, and almost always does less well in the final results.

 Also, stay tuned to Pollster.com's sage Mark Blumenthal, who will be liveblogging tonight's results, and is also cautionary about some of the leaked numbers out there.

--Michael Crowley

Posted: Tuesday, April 22, 2008 7:01 PM with 2 comment(s)

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thetraytiger said:

Somewhat unrelated, but regarding Clinton's recent performance advantage among late deciders, other than the March 4th states, it's hovered around 50/50 for late deciders.  

You may recall, Obama had a TERRIBLE day on March 3rd, which is when the Goolsbee-Canada NAFTA "-gate" went down.  Other than OH, TX, and RI, Obama's more than held his own among late deciders.  

Needless to say, it's disappointing to see this reach CW status.  Anyway, check out the table for yourself on Blumenthal's 6:26pm posting.

April 22, 2008 7:18 PM

virginiacentrist said:

The regional exit polling is really difficult to read....

CNN has 29% from "Philly+Philly Suburbs" - but what does that mean? It doesn't connect with the polling...it's apples to oranges...at the same time, that seems a bit disappointing.

April 22, 2008 8:22 PM