TNR BLOGS

July 04, 2009 | 11:58 AM
July 04, 2009 | 11:32 AM
July 04, 2009 | 8:16 AM

March 09, 2009 | 5:19 PM
March 09, 2009 | 5:16 PM
January 07, 2009 | 12:20 PM

July 01, 2009 | 10:33 PM
June 30, 2009 | 8:42 AM
June 29, 2009 | 9:09 AM

July 26, 2008 | 2:24 PM
July 23, 2008 | 1:55 PM
July 17, 2008 | 3:56 PM

July 03, 2009 | 10:13 PM
July 02, 2009 | 12:57 PM
July 01, 2009 | 7:02 PM
COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
04.04.2008
And the Winner of the Values Debate Is...

...Obama?

Via Ben Smith, the responses to this question in the latest CBS/New York Times poll really surprised me, post-Wright:

Do you think [candidate] shares the values most Americans try to live by, or doesn't (s)he?

Obama 70%
McCain 66%
Clinton 60%

From poll write-up: The biggest gap between Obama and Clinton on this comes from Republicans. Most Republicans, 52%, think Obama shares America’s values but far fewer, only 27%, think Clinton does. Independents and Democrats think they both do, but Obama fares better here, too, by 13 points. Republicans and Independents both think McCain shares America’s values, and half of Democrats do.

There's been a lot of talk in recent weeks about how Clinton and Obama are now more or less equally electable. This poll suggests one of two things: 1.) That Bosnia flap did a lot more damage (particularly among Republicans) than some of us expected. Or 2.) (And more likely, I think) Hillary's general-election liabilities can be easy to overlook or forget during a Democratic primary, where she is beloved by a lot of people, but they are very real and deeply-entrenched.

I guess there's a third option--kind of a combination of 1.) and 2.)--which is that the Bosnia flap reminded people of all the things that would weigh Hillary down in a general election. But that's obviously not much more encouraging for her...

--Noam Scheiber

Posted: Friday, April 04, 2008 11:48 AM with 12 comment(s)

Comments

You must be logged-in to comment.

Not a subscriber? Click here to get a digital or print and digital subscription to The New Republic!

adaglas said:

Is there a more vacuous word in politics - a domain that leads the known universe in vacuous words - than "values"?  What exactly are the "values most Americans try to live by," anyway?  Brushing three times a day?  Tithing on Sunday?  Not cutting people off during rush hour, and flipping off those who do?  TiVoing "The Office"?  Anyone?

April 4, 2008 12:18 PM

miceelf said:

Thanks for posting this. The PC frame has been that this poll shows that Obama has peaked and is softening. I think that's an exotic reading. I'm kind of annoyed that they didn't ask the values question in previous versions of this poll (that I could tell). I think that the Wright thing had a bigger impact in the punditry than it did with most people, who seem to have taken the view that Obama adequately explained himself and have moved on. I suspect there's a lot of residual concern about it on the part of Republicans- hence the roughly half of GOP voters who think he shares American values. That's not great- it's just that it's far better than the quarter who think that Clinton does. Obama's winning the values thing with republicans because of the deep-seated and pervasively negative perception of Clinton amond Repubs. Most aren't going to vote for either of them anyway.

The more interesting column is among independents. With them, Obama and McCain are tied, at roughly 2/3. It's Clinton with only half of independents thinking she shares america values. That's a problem- but for the cause- well, who knows- residual distrust from the 90s? Bosnia? The general sense that she keeps changing the rules or trying to? Her frequently bitter tone and demeanor? Her disproportionate support among older Hollywood types? (yes, Obama has Scarlett J, but Hillary has Meathead). Who knows?

She's also faring the worst in uniting the country, which I suspect is related somehow, as is her negative favorability/unfavorability ratio.

April 4, 2008 12:34 PM

WaltB said:

This isn't new news at all.  Anyone who remembers Bill's reign knows Hillary is of the same mold pertaining to values.  Her Bosnia-moment was completely in character - it just reminded many of what that character was really like.  What the poll doesn't show is how eroded George W.'s values rating has become amongst the Republican faithful.

April 4, 2008 1:24 PM

williamyard said:

Hillary Clinton, speaking sotto voce to the *Pittsburgh Tribune-Review*: "When it's 9 p.m. in Squirrel Hill, it's 3 a.m. in Bosnia."

Barack Obama, from the stump in Hershey: "Sometimes Bosnians feel like a nut, sometimes they don't!"

Bill Clinton, from the pulpit: "God DAMN Bosnia!"

April 4, 2008 2:11 PM

timteeter said:

Option three.

Oh, and the more the Wright things goes on, the better Obama looks.  As people examine Trinity, they are going to be favorably disposed despite Wright, which works to Obama's advantage.

April 4, 2008 2:14 PM

icarusr said:

What adaglas said.

Also, I am not sure how the raw numbers say anything at all about Bosnia.  

Values, electability ... who knows how the general will pan out?  The only measure we have is Obama's oratory and his unbelievable staying power, and the Clintons' - well, whatever it is that they have.

In any event, I cannot understand how it is that 66% can share McCain's values and 70% Obama's.  Considering how different they are, whouldn't the numbers add up to 100%, instead of almost 140%, suggesting an improbably 40% overlap between the two groups?

April 4, 2008 2:38 PM

mpatrickhendri said:

Strange that Republicans turned out to vote for HRC in such high numbers in Texas and Ohio.

April 4, 2008 3:21 PM

bigfish said:

Icarus, however different Obama and McCain are on policy positions, count me as one person who believes that they both "share the values most Americans try to live by."  I'd say they just go about it different ways.  Also, there is a possibility that a good portion of the population don't believe either of them share values of normal Americans (immigration hawks, perhaps?), so the percentage of overlap is probably a bit larger.  Folks can consider themselves "pro-family" as a value, which can lead them to opposite sides of the political spectrum, perhaps opposing or supporting gay marriage, even though they're couching their arguments as "pro-family."  Having both Obama (if he's not derailed on the way to Denver) and McCain as the nominees would do good for the country if most of it believe both share good ol' American values.  Of course, when partisan politics gets in the way of the candidates, though...anything can happen.

April 4, 2008 3:36 PM

psantillana said:

ha! timteeter, I've been thinking of checking out the local UCC when I rise from my sickbed, and I've been investigating on the internets tubes in the meantime:

http://www.ucc.org/

I like!

HA!

April 4, 2008 7:32 PM

willpastor said:

I agree that I it's hard to tell what "share the values most Americans try to live by" means. I support progressive taxation and tighter regulation of the financial sector, but I don't "live by" these things. I suspect that voters interpreted this question as "is this candidate a decent human being", and the result reflects the fact that Republicans generally view Obama as a nice enough guy, if not someone whose positions they support, while they despise Hillary as a person.

Why does this matter? I suspect that if the Democratic candidate is someone Republicans despise, as opposed to dislike, this will have a much bigger effect on downballot races. Our House majority rests on moderate Dems in conservative districts, let's not jeopardize that.

April 5, 2008 12:39 PM

Proteus said:

Please review Bruce Bawer's piece on Obama at pajamasmedia.com/.../bawer_on_obama and explain why his concerns should not be mine.

April 6, 2008 10:16 AM

miceelf said:

Proteus- That's a simple one. his concerns don't map at all onto Obama's actual positions, nor do they accurately represent his book.

April 6, 2008 11:52 AM