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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
01.04.2008
The Hillary-Bosnia Mystery, Cont'd


Hitch does us a service by bringing the slapstick of Hillary's arrival in Tuzla back to something more important, which is the role she played in shaping her husband's Bosnia policy in the first place:

In the event, President Bill Clinton had not found it convenient to keep this promise. Let me quote from Sally Bedell Smith's admirable book on the happy couple, For Love of Politics:

Taking the advice of Al Gore and National Security Advisor Tony Lake, Bill agreed to a proposal to bomb Serbian military positions while helping the Muslims acquire weapons to defend themselves—the fulfillment of a pledge he had made during the 1992 campaign. But instead of pushing European leaders, he directed Secretary of State Warren Christopher merely to consult with them. When they balked at the plan, Bill quickly retreated, creating a "perception of drift." The key factor in Bill's policy reversal was Hillary, who was said to have "deep misgivings" and viewed the situation as "a Vietnam that would compromise health-care reform." The United States took no further action in Bosnia, and the "ethnic cleansing" by the Serbs was to continue for four more years, resulting in the deaths of more than 250,000 people.

I can personally witness to the truth of this, too. I can remember, first, one of the Clintons' closest personal advisers—Sidney Blumenthal—referring with acid contempt to Warren Christopher as "a blend of Pontius Pilate with Ichabod Crane." I can remember, second, a meeting with Clinton's then-Secretary of Defense Les Aspin at the British Embassy. When I challenged him on the sellout of the Bosnians, he drew me aside and told me that he had asked the White House for permission to land his own plane at Sarajevo airport, if only as a gesture of reassurance that the United States had not forgotten its commitments. The response from the happy couple was unambiguous: He was to do no such thing, lest it distract attention from the first lady's health care "initiative."

As I've noted before, this account conflicts with the way Hillary describes her own thinking in early 1993. In her memoir, Living History, she writes of hearing Elie Wiesel call for US intervention in April 1993. At the time, she says, "I was convinced that the only way to stop the genocide in Bosnia was through selective air strikes against Serbian targets." She adds that Bill was "frustrated" by European inaction and struggling to chart a course with his advisors while the situation "became more agonizing as the death toll mounted."

Oddly, Bosnia then simply disappears from Hillary's memoir. Three years and 170 pages pass before her next reference to the conflict, which she revisits in the form of her now-infamous 1996 trip to the region after NATO bombing has brought peace. (You can see how she described it here.) That's quite an elision, and one that hardly indicates much passion for stopping a "genocide" that was one of the most important foreign-policy dilemmas her husband faced. 

However, another passage in Bedell Smith's book suggests that Hillary did assert herself in 1995, as the region entered a period of new turmoil:

Two years earlier, Hillary had been dovish on Bosnia. Worried about getting into another Vietnam-style quagmire, she had helped  persuade Bill to back away from the "lift and strike" plan to remove the ban on weapons to Muslim fighters while launching air strikes against Serbian military targets. Now the atmosphere had changed. Republicans as well as Democrats in the Senate were poised to pass a measure allowing the Bosnian Muslims to obtain weapons to fight the Serbs more effectively, and Bill's continued inaction threatened to harm him politically.

After several conversations with Holbrooke, Hillary became "an advocate for the use of force in Bosnia," said one of Bill's top advisors. By the end of June, Holbrooke told Hillary bluntly that Bill needed to show "engagement, not procrastinating and ducking and waiting for something better to happen"....

Hillary by then considered Holbrooke a valuable foreign-policy operative who was not being used effectively by her husband. She believed that Bill was sliding away from involvement in foreign policy, especially in Bosnia. She told another of her husband's advisors that Bill had to shoulder too much as spokesman for the administration. It was "unfair," she said, "to leave him out there as the only one pulling chestnuts out of the fire." Reverting to her copresident role, she asked for "a detailed plan for a foreign policy public relations campaign--communcations offense and defense, not based on level of rank but communication skills." She specified that Secretary of Defense William Perry, CIA Director John Deutsch, UN Ambassador Madeleine Albright, and Holbrooke all be tapped as surrogates to speak for Bill on foreign policy. Conspicuous by their omission were Christopher and Lake, neither of whom was dynamic on television.

What to make of all this? One reading--for those who don't trust Hillary's book--is that she always saw Bosnia as a merely political issue. She didn't want action in 1993 when it threatened her health care plan, but she did want it in 1995 when Bill risked looking weak.

The other reading would be that Hillary truly was moved by Elie Wiesel in 1993 and privately quietly cajoled Bill to act, but to no avail. Bedell Smith's account of her resistance to a more hawkish policy is apparently based on a single source, a May 1993 Newsweek article which contained one quote from a Hillary "friend" who is not identified. That hardly seems like definitive evidence that Hillary is lying. That said, much like Hillary's claim to have urged Bill to stop the genocide in Rwanda, there is no clear evidence suggesting she actually did so.

Verdict: Inconclusive--but suspicious! I say the burden's on Hillary to establish that she really was speaking up about these genocides that moved her so. Thus far, she hasn't made much effort to do so, and I'm not sure she's earned the benefit of the doubt recently.

--Michael Crowley

Posted: Tuesday, April 01, 2008 1:10 PM with 32 comment(s)

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lymon1 said:

The pimping of genocide/ethnic cleansing here on TNR continues.  Yesterday Speaker Pelosi called on President Bush to boycott the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games in Beijing.  Germany's Prime Minster (Germany!) is already boycotting the games, though obstensibly more out of concern for Tibet than for Darfur (either is a justifiable reason).  

Nobody on TNR will talk about this.  Nobody calls the Obama/Clinton/McCain campaigns to get a position.  Or anyone else in Congress or in a position of leadership.  Instead of talking about the substance of Bosnia and Rwanda, we only talk about it in terms of the "character" issue in the presidential race.  I'm sure that's what the victims of those tragedies would want and what the current victims appreciate, if they weren't too busy trying to avoid getting shot, raped, or starved to death.  

April 1, 2008 1:38 PM

Michael Crowley said:

lymon, do you ever read the print magazine? TNR extensively covered the Balkan conflict in the 90s, strongly criticized Clinton for his slow response, and indeed published a small paperback entitled "The Black Book of Bosnia." More recently we have published numerous editorials and articles on Darfur, as well as a poignant photo essay, and a complex chart on recent violence and migrations which you can find in our very latest issue. So to huff that "Nobody on TNR will talk about this" is just, well, wrong.

April 1, 2008 1:48 PM

psantillana said:

Suspicious is right. She has a .. um .. credibility problem. "Living History" has turned out to be interesting when it contradicts statements she's made in the campaign, but I'm certainly not going to trust it as an accurate source of anything, other that what she thought would be good to display at the time she wrote it.

April 1, 2008 1:49 PM

icarusr said:

She was for it before she was against it.

April 1, 2008 1:53 PM

teplukhin2you said:

TNR on Hitch:

Hitch (correctly, skilfully) exposes Hillary's BS on Tuzla: Hitch Good.

Hitch (correctly, skilfully) exposes Obama's BS about Rev Goofball: Hitch Bad.

Guys, I'm not paying for a church bulletin. If you've decided to check out from our United Front Against Bullsh*t, that's your choice, but it has consequences, including making TNR much less interesting and surprising.

April 1, 2008 2:05 PM

Annabella2 said:

Can someone explain to me why it was OK to bomb Serbia and destroy its infrastructure because of the Bosnians on a "humanitarian" basis but it was wrong to go into Iraq because of our multiple real and fictitious real politique reasons?

Don't get me wrong... I have come to the conclusion that Iraq was a serious misjudgment both in its rational and in its execution and an exercise in dreadful hubris.

But I really would like some help with the fundamental illogic of some of the positions of "Liberals" on when it is OK to intervene and when it is not and how it is Ok to intervene and how it is not.   I would like some theoretical framework that might be usable in future situations that squares this particular circle for me?

April 1, 2008 2:09 PM

virginiacentrist said:

TNR covered the issues in the Balkans in the 90s - very true.

Not only that - they covered Turkish genocide last year. I can't find the archives, but there was a (fairly unconvincing) article last fall about the need to pass a Turkish genocide resolution in the House (over the objections of the Turks, our allies near Iraq).

As far as Hillary goes...if she lied about facing sniper fire with such ease and such grace, then it's hard to take anything else she says about Bosnia seriously.

April 1, 2008 2:12 PM

williamyard said:

Thanks for posting this, Mike.

April 1, 2008 2:15 PM

scottlooper said:

Great post, Crowley.  I'm glad to see balanced reporting on TNR's blogs again.  You may save my subscription renewal, yet!

April 1, 2008 2:28 PM

virginiacentrist said:

Tep:

Find a better example. Hitch is all over the place. He hates everyone and everything.

Personally - I wouldn't quote Hitch on his anti-Hillary rant, because it is so personally charged against her.

April 1, 2008 2:29 PM

miceelf said:

Tep- help me remember a time when the editor in chief of TNR was objective wrt Clinton. Let's face it, TNR, like every magazine, has its biases. It works harder than most to counter them, but they are there. I don't see you angrily demanding articles discussing the downsides of intervention in Darfur or in favor of teaching creation science in public schools or about how Ralph nader is the obvious man for the job of POTUS. And you're also ignoring the anti-Obama folks that get a platform on TNR, like Wilenz and the various crazy feminists in the TNR primary issue. Tucker Carlson is on staff- I'm sure he's working on something about how black racism is the direst danger faced by America.

April 1, 2008 2:42 PM

lymon1 said:

Michael -- yes, I do and I know -- I'm referring to TNR Online and should have been more specific.  But there is a world of difference between giving Eric Reeves a much-deserved platform and your coverage of the current campaign.  And even in print there seems to be an...I don't know, disconnect/separation barrier between Darfur and the treatment of the candidates.  For example, TNR once slightly criticized Obama (and Sam Brownback) for being too weak in a letter on Darfur to Bush -- there's been no extrapolation (that I've seen -- ok, I admit, I don't *religiously* read TNR print) for Obama's subsequent record on Darfur, which I'd argue has been poor.

April 1, 2008 3:01 PM

lymon1 said:

P.S. -- Unless my browser search thing isn't working well, I couldn't find "Darfur" or "Olympics" on The Plank or The Stump in whatever full posts come up in the scroll.  My guess is it wouldn't turn up much in past scrolls.  It will on The Spine, but only to bash the Arab nations which support Sudan or to criticize the New York Times and Boston Globe for dithering.  Like I said -- disconnect -- you'd think Darfur was a major issue to TNR from the print version, but you'd think it's trivial from the online posts.

April 1, 2008 3:16 PM

Annabella2 said:

Has anyone else seen this video now on YouTube... same type of credibility issues but this time on NAFTA

www.dailykos.com/.../488126

April 1, 2008 3:45 PM

Runciman said:

Better late (Bosnia) than never (Rwanda)

April 1, 2008 3:47 PM

ChanRobt said:

When put to a test, the Clintons are far more comfortable with genocide than the sin of American intervention.

These are the tender mercies of the Left.

April 1, 2008 3:51 PM

blackton said:

lymon, I don't get your point, you and I both commented on the Olympics thread (and there were precious few comments there) so what if it isn't on the Plank or Stump or Spine, or even the Stank or Spank or Spunk? The print version is posted online so I don't get your beef.

annabella, Bill Clinton only sought to end the Serbs ethnic cleansing, we never set foot into the country, just bombed it. I also think we won the war in Iraq years ago, after we caught Saddam and they elected their leaders. Bush never thought out his end game. He wanted to control the internal affairs of Iraq afterwards but not commit enough troops to do it. I still don't know what end game the Bush's want in Iraq. Even today we refuse to provide the Iraqi army with any advanced weaponry (their airforce is propeller driven). All around and total f-up.

April 1, 2008 3:55 PM

tomeg said:

Among the reasons for success in Bosnia, foremost was luck...damned luck. There was a huge risk that if the aerial bombing didn't stop the Serbs, the only resort left was a ground assault, that would probably also entail an occupation of undetermined length and cost, and well might end in failure.

IOW success in Bosnia didn't alter the rule of non-intervention; instead, it was the rare exception that supported the rule. Still, had the Serbs not stopped the risk was that Europe would have another brush fire out of control in its backyard.

A key distinction between the decision to intervene in Bosnia and not to intervene in Rwanda and Darfur was that Europe was Europe, and as ever post-colonial Africa is Africa, no comparable compelling reason to get involved. Heartless and no doubt racist, but there it is.

April 1, 2008 3:55 PM

tomeg said:

Annabella2, thank you for the link. This sort of blithely denied bs of Hillary isn't just what we can expect more of in the campaign, it will become a prominent feature of her Presidency, on camera and in our faces for the duration. Say what you want about Obama's fibbing being worse, my response is "worse than what??"

April 1, 2008 4:03 PM

lymon1 said:

blackton -- that was a guest opinion that they cross-published and we commented on (Bernard-Henri Lévy).

As I said, there is a HUGE disconnect between the print TNR, where genocide is treated as an important subject, and the TNR blogs, where it is sub-trivial.  The editors/writers go into EXCRUTIATING MINUTIA on a host of ridiculous topics (sports endorsements, southpaw-ness) and can't be bothered to find out what the candidates positions are on the only major Darfur/China related news of the campaign season, let alone have an opinion on it.  Marty Peretz is worse: he raises the issue, but not to address it on the merits but as a tool to show yet another way the Arab nations are barbaric and the NYTimes/Boston Globe are willfully naive about the United Nations.  His arguments aren't wrong per-se, but in the context of an ongoing genocide they're obscene.  

If Darfur or Tibet had white Christian populations, or Jewish populations, can anyone honestly say the TNR writers wouldn't be asking this vis-a-vis the presidential candidates?  I don't believe so.  For all the moralizing in the print version, the TNR writers on the blogs (which crackles with energy) couldn't care less.  

April 1, 2008 4:13 PM

lymon1 said:

Tomeg made my point (and probably better!), but I'd argue even under this cynical analysis we can still go through the abstraction (i.e. pretend we think Africans are fully human).  

April 1, 2008 4:15 PM

butchie b said:

The other question implicit in annabella's is: Is a UNSC resolution necessary to intervene?  Only outside Europe?  Because Clinton never even bothered with the UNSC, because Russia was a certain veto.  NATO said it was OK, but what's the standard?

If a UNSC resolution is NOT the standard, then what part of Iraq is "illegal"?

Gee, you might think that some of the criticism of the current occupant is, gasp, politically motivated.

April 1, 2008 4:25 PM

tomeg said:

I've never understood what the "illegal" argument actually is. Didn't Congress grant Bush authority to declare war at his discretion? I suppose it must mean International Law. But, considering how often and how flagrantly International Law is and has been violated by every country I can think of including ours, what, really, is the strength of the claim?

April 1, 2008 4:43 PM

roidubouloi said:

Annabella,

If you are a liberal in the tradition of Roosevelt, then the first, second, and third questions you ask about any military action are ones of prudence.  In my mind, a true liberal is pragmatic, not an idealist.  Thus, it is entirely appropriate and necessary to weigh the costs and benefits to America and Americans when sending  American soldiers into harm's way.  And it is appropriate also to consider the costs to innocent non-Americans of military action of benefit to us.  And it is appropriate to consider the interests and support of allies.

In Bosnia, the balance of risk and reward was very favorable.  In Iraq, the potential benefits were negligible at the outset and the potential costs, in lives, treasure, international stability, enormous.  And now we are paying the price for Bush's stupidity and dishonesty.

The question how all this relates to international law is a whole other matter.  There are only 2 1/2 justifications for force under international law, 1) self defense until the UNSC has taken action to secure the peace, 2) authorization by the UNSC, and 3) an emerging doctrine of humanitarian intervention.  None of the international lawyers in the US or UK thought that 1) or 3) were even plausibly invoked by the circumstances of Iraq.  They claimed that the UNSC had authorized the intervention -- in 1991.  It was a crock, barely even a legal fig leaf to do what they wanted.  In Bosnia, in contrast, 3) could be invoked and was.

You can argue how much weight if any should be given to international law, but there is no legitimate argument that the invasion of Iraq was legitimate under international law.

April 1, 2008 5:43 PM

singlespeed said:

butchie it's interesting that you're trying to parse the meaning of a UNSC resolution and if it's not a standard, i.e. not important for a president to have one for foreign intervention, then why is the current occupation illegal? You're implying that since a UNSC resolution isn't the "standard" then the Iraq invasion and occupation was/is OK. There are two different things going on here.

As for Iraq, Bush used the non-compliance of UNSC resolutions for the invasion of Iraq. Serbia wasn't in violation of UNSC resolutions because it was seen an internal/civil war and the UN didn't pass UNSC resolution until 1999 (per wikipedia). But knowing full well that not all European members of the UN or for that matter Russia either, considered ethnic cleansing to be a UNSC issue or an issue at all. Clinton went to NATO because that was the defacto organization to go to. The UN was never involved in the negotiations prior to or during the Serbian conflicts, NATO, the US and Russia were.

Bush had to go to the UNSC because he was using the non-compliance as a reason for invading Iraq, weak as the arguments may have been. Not only that but he wouldn't have received help from his "coalition of the willing" had he invaded without UNSC consent on the basis of Saddam's ignoring of UNSC resolutions.

No one is politicizing Iraq as "illegal" that I know of. But calling it an unnecessary military endeavor is not politicizing Iraq it's seeing the Bush run-up for what it was. A long-term neo-con strategic goal that 9/11 and Afghanistan were conveniently tied to to help bolster the justification for invading Iraq. The fact that the invasion was justified with specious reasons is enough to question it on political grounds since Bush took it that direction to begin with.

April 1, 2008 5:57 PM

Annabella2 said:

Thanks Roi.. it does help to think about these issues in a more generalized way... but one of you seems to imply that the difference is that we "only" bombed Serbia, we didn't invade it... that can't be right, can it even on  "prudential" grounds?

I still think there are huge disconnects here that "Liberals" haven't thought through about when, how, why one uses power and the consequences thereof...

I suppose if Bush and Co.'s version had turned out correct... flowers, a quick change of govt, few deaths with us out of there... it would have been "worth it" and he could have made laughing stocks of all the Nay Sayers... but considering how little he knew or cared to know about Iraq history... well all the rest followed.

But is our ultimate touchstone simply utilitarian?  It works (the goal we are trying to achieve) at a tolerable price in blood and wealth... but then what do we do with WWII, Grenada, The Mexican war... on and on... I do think these kinds of issues will be much more in the foreground for us as a country trying to use our power in the future... as well as the empiric one:  how much is this craziness going to cost.

April 1, 2008 6:40 PM

roidubouloi said:

Why can't it be right on prudential grounds that we only bombed Serbia and didn't invade it?  The commitment of American lives and treasure was minimal.  Indeed, that's why it worked.  Because it was clear  that we could afford to continue indefinitely.  Also, the bombing campaign was designed to influence Serbian public opinion, not to bludgeon Serbia into submission with a maximum of destruction.  These things all make a difference.  

There were plenty of people who were able to anticipate what would happen if we invaded Iraq (including Obama).  Between the lies about the harm to be avoided (terrorists in Iraq, WMDs, particularly nuclear capability in Iraq) and the lies and self-delusion about the costs (firing Shinseki for telling the truth), Iraq could only have ended in disaster, as it has.

War is always unpredictable.  The first responsibility is a clear-eyed understanding of the strategic and tactical situation.  The second is the conviction that it should only be employed as a last resort, because of the unpredictability of the consequences.  Pragmatic consideration of the facts is to my mind the essence of the liberal tradition.  The idealistic idea that every problem can be solved today is a caricature, surely not the view of Roosevelt and company.

April 1, 2008 6:58 PM

tomeg said:

singlespeed:

"No one is politicizing Iraq as "illegal" that I know of."

It may not be official Democratic party-speak, but it is a big deal at democracy now and moveon and, well, all over the left blogosphere. The party would easily be tagged with the phrase "illegal war."

April 1, 2008 9:07 PM

tomeg said:

The U.N. Security Council, international anti-Christ of the right? I'm sick of hearing UNSC invoked by people who not only wanted to axe our contribution but pull out altogether - decades ago and today. If I could claim a dollar for every time a Bushie called the UN irrelevant (during the "old europe" days) and powerless during the runup to war I'd be a rich man.

April 1, 2008 9:14 PM

BruceGG said:

I have seen Hitch on TV a lot, but between you and whoever is covering for Sullivan this week, I took a look at the Bosnia piece.

Now I feel like I need a shower.

Hitch is taking the Clintons to task for taking 3 years to convince people to do something no Republican and no European of any party or any country would do for a decade?

You're taking a minute out of your busy day to fact check him?

Come on.

Hillary (who I actually support) keeps claiming that she has foreign policy experience.  She was married to a President. She has no more (and no less) experience than the current President had by being the son of a President.

They were both close observers and occasional advisors.

We need to get past what my candidate or any candidate says (which is mostly self-serving), and try to figure out what being a President's wife for 8 years and a United States Senator for 8 years actually brings to table in 2009.

April 2, 2008 1:53 AM

butchie b said:

roi, we were right on prudential grounds to bomb the Bosnian Serbs, and then much later, the Serbian Serbs.  But in neither case did we go to the UNSC first.  IMHO, we were late to the party in the Balkans, and thousands of innocents died because Clinton failed to act.  As did the Euros, and it was their ballgame.  And Bruce is right - most Republicans were against intervention, to their shame.

I note that you call the humanitarian doctrine "emerging," which it certainly is.  Our Balkan interventions can be justified on that basis.  But Iraqis were also suffering under saddam, especially under Oil for Food (plenty of oil, little food).  And no, Iraq did NOT have to turn out the way it has.  Decisions have consequences, and this administration has made some very bad ones.  However, given the choice between Saddam in power in 2008, and the current situation, I still prefer the latter.

April 2, 2008 11:24 AM

peterjukes said:

I think you're missing several other KEY TESTIMONIES;

Elizabeth Drew's biography I don't have to hand, but I'm pretty sure that she says Hillary was persuasive in Bill's backing off from 'Lift and Strike' in 1993. She had read Kaplan's 'Balkan Ghosts' in its entirety, and used this as a talking point. This is called confirmed by Richard Reeves, author of RUNNING IN PLACE ('94) who had interviewed Lee Aspin. He cites this source again in the 1996 interview, still on the PBS website

"The most dramatic example came toward the end of the first year, when he agreed, at a series of meetings on policy called "Lift and Strike," lift the arms embargo on the Bosnian Muslims and strike at Bosnian- Serb targets. That happened on a Friday. Warren Christopher went to Europe to tell NATO allies what we were going to do, and that Monday morning there was a meeting in the Oval Office between Clinton, Colin Powell, then Chairman of the Joint Chiefs-of-Staff, and Les Aspin, then Secretary of Defense. And as he walked into the room, Clinton was carrying a book called Balkan Ghosts, by Robert Kaplan. And he said, <b>"My wife read this and I read some of it too. And it says that we can't succeed doing anything in that society. They've been killing each other for thousands of years and they're going to keep doing it." </b>And Les Aspin said later, he was sitting there thinking, "He's going to go south on Lift and Strike." And he called Europe, got Christopher, and said, "Don't say anything. The President's going to change his mind." And in fact the President did.

Point proven: she's either lying in her book, or these THREE other sources are lying. Which do you think it is?

April 3, 2008 6:34 AM

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