Doesn't pass the smell test. If/when Rasmussen sees the same thing I'll buy it, but I'm skeptical of this source.

Don't worry, I'm sure one of our resident Clintonophiles will have some reason why PPP was valid last week, but not this one.

No Clintonophile here-- I voted for Obama, will almost certainly vote for him in the fall-- but the TNR Obamacrush has gotten so out of hand that I think everything they post needs to be viewed with a skeptical eye. Today it's verging into the realm of self-parody. Sucks, but hey, their choice, not mine.

Tep- Rasmussen's most recent poll was March 6 and had Obama up by 7, similar for SUSA.

I agree this whole outfit looks fishy. But if it looks fishy today, it looked fishy when the earlier widely reported poll was taken showing Obama ahead by only a point.

PPP's among the worst pollsters this season (7.64 margin of error).  

www.surveyusa.com/.../surveyusa-report-cards

I would take all their polls with a grain of salt.

Tep- I posted my first comment before I saw yours, so in case it wasn't clear, I wasn't directing it at you. You don't hyperventilate about polls in general the way some do ("Obama is down TWO WHOLE POINTS in the past week! He has to drop out!!!" or whatever). So, sorry for giving that impression. I thought I was the first person responding to the thread. Dang new format.

But I agree about skepticism. I just want to note that the earlier poll by ppp was widely used by the media as part of the "Wright has sunk Obama" narrative.

North Carolina = Virginia PLUS 2.4% more blacks MINUS 5% educated whites.

I ran some numbers comparing the two:

African Americans (big advantage Obama):

NC: 22.3%

VA: 19.9%

People over 65 (tiny advantage Hillary):

NC: 12.2%

VA: 11.6%

Median income (HRC advantage)*

NC: $40,863

VA: $51,103

Hispanics (no advantage):

NC: 6.7%

VA: 6.3%

Bachelor's degree or higher (slight advantage HRC)*

NC: 22.5%

VA: 29.5%

VA Results:

Obama 64, Clinton 35

Black turnout: 30%, went for Obama: 90%

White votes went for Obama: 52%

Hispanic votes were roughly split (5% of total).

*This may only be a slight advantage because the 2.4% jump in african americans in NC causes some of this shift downwards in education levels. The real question is median white income/white education. And I don't have that data, so I'll estimate it (see below)

Based on this data - and VA's proximity to DC - and current polling - and VA exit polls - I'd estimate the following in NC:

Hispanic turnout: 4%

50/50 split of the hispanic votes

Black turnout: 33.6%

Obama percentage of black votes: 92%

White turnout: 62.4%

Obama percentage of white votes (using education estimates to factor in a 15% performance decrease): 44%

2% (hispanic) + 30.92% (black) + 27.45% (white) = 60.37% prediction for Obama

HOWEVER

John Edwards' name is still on the ballot. Without an endorsement, I'm going to guess that he gets 3% statewide and takes 2% from Hillary and 1% from Obama (since his support will be white/working class).

Final prediction:

Obama 59.37%

Hillary 37.63%

Edwards 3%

Clinton is up in the Rasmussen tracking poll for today.

fwiw I believe the Wright fallout has implications for the GE, not the primaries.

I  live in the Triangle and have lived here for nearly 28 years.  I grew up in the Triad (Winston-Salem to be exact), so I know the area I'd guess.  Lots of my friends are Dems, and with me being the exception, they universally dislike Hillary. That's the Dems mind you; don't even  mention her name to anyone who's a Republican.  They'd likely claw out your eyes or spit on you.  Hillary has always elicited vile comments around here I never really comprehended nor espoused myself.

Many of my friends/family/acquaintances should fit the demographic of a typical Hillary supporter: white, female, late 40s or older. And not a one of them can stand her.  My wife has a virulent hatred of her, and she is more liberal than me and a big Bill Clinton fan. My mom is in her 60s and likes Obama; she detests Hillary but is also a Bill fan and more conservative than me.  My dad, who's in his 70s, doesn't care either way.  He'd vote for either, and anyone but another pube.  They seem to be the norm around here, not the exception.  I know my sample size is small (less than 100), but I could never figure out those polls that had Hillary neck-and-neck with Obama.  I guess I know the wrong people.

I can say that HRC has already done some push polling.  I got one of those calls, and the "questions" were as obvious as possible to make HRC sound like the second coming and Obama as Satan himself.

scott,

First, that report card was before Ohio and Texas, both of which PPP got within 2 points, bringing their average to 6.7.

Second, they've actually been above average for most of the polls that they did compared to other pollsters for the same contests (e.g. everybody missed pretty badly on and SC, but PPP was closer than everyone else).

There's good summary of the performance of the more prolific pollsters over the past several years here (you have to scroll down a bit):

www.fivethirtyeight.com/search

tep is irrationally skeptical of any poll not done by Rasmussen, even SUSA, which has had a better track record over the years (although Rasmussen is generally among the better pollsters).

quick question on the "push poll" tnmats,

How long was it?  It can sometimes be difficult to distinguish between push polling and legitimate message testing.  A big part of what campaign pollsters get paid for is polling to see how different messages will go over with the local electorate.  This obviously includes messages slanted toward the campaign's candidate, but it is legitimate research on their part.  If they take 15-20 minutes, it's likely that they actually care about your responses.  Push polls just want to spread a particular message in the guise of a legitimate source, so they don't have to take the time to be thorough.

There are a few good articles on this over at pollster.com.  See, for example

www.pollster.com/.../proclinton_push_poll.php

and the links to related articles at the bottom of the post.

Research Triangle is so yuppified it isn't really southern anymore. The NC Dem primary tells us nada about how Wright will affect Obama nationally, in the GE. Pennsylvania would be a better bellwether, but again, I think this issue will get its legs in the fall. Unless Obama decides to souljah Wright before then.

What I assumed was a push poll took about 10 min.  When I answered that I would definitely vote for Obama in the May primary, every following question was "if you knew Obama" followed by a very harshly negative image of him, and then would be asked if it changed my mind.  I think I got maybe 5 or 6 questions like that.  Then the questions about Hillary came, and all were glowing and positive as could be.  I had to look outside to see if Obama wasn't out to torch the country and Hillary was there to take me to the promised land.  It was a person asking me all the questions.  What was humorous was I had to correct the questioner's question once.  He said  "50 million" left uninsured with Obama's plan, not 15 million as HRC has states.  Maybe she recalculated when we weren't watching??

If I didn't follow politics that poll would have made me an Obama hater/Hillary lover at best, or at least think Obama is the worst of all worlds.  The poll I got on Monday was a robo-poll.  It just asked if I were a registered Democrat or Republican, and when I answered Dem it asked if I would vote for HRC or BO, the continued onto state-wide races.  That one did have an intersting question, if John Edwards endorsing Hillary would change my vote.  I bet if I said I'm voting for Hillary the question would been reworded to ask if he endorsed Obama would that change my vote.

tep, how do you know?   Do you live here?  I do, and believe me, it's not as "yuppified" as the national press would have you believe.

After a tour of Fuquay-Varina, several parts of Raleigh, Garner and many areas of Durham, I think you'll change your mind.  Johnston County is part of this area and after going there I doubt you'll be of the same mind.  I could go on if you wish.  The area has pockets of yuppies, but mostly the area is dominated by a lot of blue-collar types (mostly state gov't) and suburban families like mine.  It has turned more white collar but it still has a strong definite NC feel to it.  We've lost some of the Southern flavor we used to have (argument for another day), but drop on by for some good eastern North Carolina Barbecue.  I know of a few places.  :-)

oh and tep, if we're so "yuppie", why did this area go for Bush 55-45 in the last election?  And voted for Ms. Dole over the Dem?  It is not so reliably yuppie/Democrat/liberal as you think.  Don't forget, Jesse Helm's power base was in Raleigh all those years.

PC- I knew I could count on you. HRC has gained one point in Rasmussen today over yesterday (exactly the same amount of a gain that Obama has had in the gallup).

Most fok (including me) would consider it noise. But you're nothing if not consistent.

Tep- isn't the research triangle similar to northern vriginia in that regard? And the problem with PA as the bellweather is that HRC has huge institutional advantages there aside from Wright- she has rendell and nutter and the PA machine. She also had a 18 point lead in PA BEFORE the Wright thing went down. Are you positing that Obama has to win PA to prove that Wright isn't fatal, or simply outperform the polls before Wright? What percent would Obama have to get in PA for you to be less concerned?

(My assumption is that HRC is set to win by 15 points. That's the lead she had before all this Wirght stuff went down. If he does worse than that, I'll be worried. If he does substantially better- i.e., gets within 10, I'll be impressed. That's my split for the stated reason. Curious as to what yours is)

miceelf: The Triangle ain't northern VA.  I live in the Triangle and visited the VA side of DC very often for years when I had friends there.  This area is definitely has more blue collar feel than northern VA, and still has substantial rural/semi-rural areas.  Similar but definitely more conservative around here than that part of VA.  When I read the letters to the editor, listen to local radio, or even see campaign signs in the "yuppie" neighborhood I live in, I think I'm the only moderate/liberal left  over here.

tnmats - sister's family and many tech biz colleagues live there. It's become a huge corporate HQ, much different from what I recall from the days a quarter century ago when my new brother-in-law invited us Yankees down to hear the Red Clay Ramblers and watch cloggers clog it up in the Blue Ridge.

btw I don't think of yuppies as necessarily liberal, or maybe I should say yuppies aren't necessarily willing to sacrifice their economic self-interest in favor of their social values. The reverse of Tom Franks' Kansas, so to speak.

mice - well, maybe it's false to extrapolate from ANY state to the GE. I think the Wright thing is a ticking time bomb that will go off when the likes of Roger Stone get down to business in the fall.

That sounds more like message testing (albeit with questionable messages). Mark Blumenthal offered a few ways of practically distinguishing the two:

"We can usually identify a true push poll by a few characteristics that serve as evidence of that intent. "Push pollsters" (and MP hates that term) aim to reach as many voters as possible, so they typically make tens or even hundreds of thousands of calls. Real surveys usually attempt to interview only a few hundred or perhaps a few thousand respondents (though not always). Push polls typically ask just a question or two, while real surveys are almost always much longer and typically conclude with demographic questions about the respondent (such as age, race, education, income). The information presented in a true push poll is usually false or highly distorted, but not always. A call made for the purposes of disseminating information under the guise of survey is still a fraud - and thus still a "push poll" - even if the facts of the "questions" are technically true or defensible."

It's not exactly pretty, but there are a few things to keep in mind here.  First, that poll probably didn't reach many people, likely a few hundred or so.  It just isn't cost-effective to spread negative messages by conducting ten-minute interviews on a large scale.  Second, the purpose of the poll is to gain information about how voters might react to certain messages.  Hopefully your responses help convince them that the more flagrant ones aren't going to fly.

Tep, it has changed over the years.  Still has lots of blue collar folk, they just don't work the typical blue collar jobs.  Many of them work in state gov't, the local hospitals and have the non-degreed jobs at the local universities.  I've been here since 1980 and it still amazes me how it's changed.  But, it isn't quite like the national press would have you believe.  Technical types (respectable sized contingent of the population) like me tend to the right wing side.  I definitely go against the grain in that respect.

My point is that I don't see how Hillary polled that well recently.  A 10-20 point spread between her and Obama seems more natural to me from my years of experience.  Yeah yeah I know I could very well be wrong, but something in my gut tells me she won't do too well here.  Maybe there's a 'sympathy' effect for Obama, like there is/was for Hillary after Iowa when it seemed like the press was piling up on her?

After reading the articles you pointed to, it does sound like message testing Alan.  It was a more personal survey in that the guy did spend some time on the phone.  The messages about Obama ran the gamut of issues about Wright, his lack of "experience", and the health care mandate issue, and a few others I can't remember.  All the questions about Obama were negative as can be.  For Hillary, it was green jobs, health care, experience in foreign policy, and a few others I can't remember.  Then there was the typical questions about my race, education, etc.  

To date, I never, never have gotten a single poll for my opinions except for radio stations.  It definitely is a new experience to be polled as often as I have in the last three weeks.  If radio station polls are any indication, then I don't expect any improvements in the quality of either candidate any time soon.

tnmats, my apologies- i was taking tep's description for what it's worth and it fit my own experience- most of my time in the triangle is spent within Chapel Hill. My colleagues there are all liberal academics from the north. And they all claim to have crazy conservative neighbors that I never see, and thus, take on a mythical quality in my mind, like unicorns or the Laffer curve.

Tep-I agree about extrapolating, I AM curious as to how you would define Obama doing "well" in PA, however.

tnmats,

When it comes to eastern NC barbecue, I assume you are referring to Parker's?

I think the general will be a much more unorthodox campaign compared to the primaries.

I think the Obama campaign will show increased confidence to "event" the campaign (e.g., long-form speeches), pursue ever-larger rallies, continued confrontation with FOX and Talk Radio (they make the GOP look like foaming-at-the-mouth reactionaries), use a variety of big-name, unexpected endorsements (Republicans) in a number of markets, and being loaded with cash, try a number of unusual tricks in the blogosphere, as well as other new media. With gender no longer an issue, a straightforward black man vs. white man battle will be truly amazing to watch. (You can get a preview in Buchanan's last few pieces where he says Barack isn't competent enough to be a Wal-Mart greeter.)

It'll be Target vs. Wal-Mart. (Although Target will have Wal-Mart's budget.)

McCain, looking more and more like Sam Walton, will likely reprise Bush '04.

Ohio released some really terrible numbers today reflecting dramatic increases in people going on food stamps. As the economy continues to struggle, layoffs continue, and a lot of high school kids will be unable to find summer jobs, you can expect McCain's warrior pose to be far less effective.

Obama is also beginning to close in on PA.  Down by only 10 in the latest Rasmussen.  Sound like a lot?  He was down between 14 and 26 in some earlier polls.

"It's the economy, stupid."

Let's here John McCain on that subject:  "I don't really know anything about economics."

at least he nose grammar

Sorry, tep,  This is my auditory typing tick.  I often substitute homonyms because I type listening to myself recite in my head.  When I remember to use Chan's trick of increasing the type size, I usually manage to catch these visually.  If I don't, I cannot read what I am typing in this little-bitty screen. But, rest assured, I due no the difference between here and nose.

I let the wizards of canWest handle the fonts. Hallucinatory results to blow yer mind

Don't forget Charlotte - my sis in law lives there.  Spoke with her yesterday.  There's lot of nice, church goin' white collar folks who a) live for NASCAR b) find Hillary vile.

Tep - I used to be in the tech industry, there was always the Tep guy there - mocking your mistakes!

Wandrey - no equal oppty abuser here, I just reserve my mockery for roiduboulot because he's smarter than and usually gets the better of the rest of us (no joke).

Eastern NC barbeque is vinegar based sauce with some spices; western NC (Lexington-style as it's sometimes called) uses a tomato based sauce.

Wandrey: Charlotte believe it or not is now more moderate/liberal than the Triangle.  I found it hard to believe with the finacial bidness being so big there.  But, a lot of the money boys there are Democrats (Hugh McColl, the man who built NCNB>Nations Bank>BofA) is a Hillary supporter.  Another big money boy from Charlotte is Erskine Bowles, who ran as a Dem for the Senate  a while back.  Kerry carried the Charlotte area in 2004 (surprised the hell out of me), and Bush carried the Triangle (again, big surprise to me).  That alone indicates how much more right leaning the Triangle is compared to Charlotte.

The two Dems running for governor in the May primary have openly backed Obama.  A few have backed Hillary, but from the declared supers around here the mostly back Obama.

And the 'hillary=vile' is common in this state.  Like I said, I never really was of that opinion and never understood it.  Until now.  Even the very liberal dems I know (for example, my wife), who consider NC Democrats just pube-lites (again, describes my wife), detest Hillary with a passion.  That's why i could never quite figure out those polls that had her close to Obama.

And don't let anyone in this area ever hear you say C/H  is like the Triangle.  Amongst many around here thems fightin' words.  I don't have a problem with Chapel Hill.  I have a problem with UNC.  That comes naturally to an NC State graduate.

I agree Tep - Roi is a warrior, thank God he's on our side.

tnmats - I like Charlotte alot, as a matter of fact - I love all of NC. My husband attended Duke in the 80's (sorry if that's wrong the word) but was a refusnike guitar playing Workers-of-the-Word-Unite guy in the midst of jock yuppie nirvana (he still is and somehow works on Wall Street - but you'd be suprised how many bleeding hearts sit on those desks).  

Anyway, I was surprised at my sis in laws take on her friends and neighbors in Charlotte - all Dems, but seemingly conservative ones (which basically means to our hopelessly ignorant city slicker eye - white, BMW driving church folks. We don't get out much here on the Upper West Side). We all assumed it was McCain country.  

But she said there are more Obama signs and bumper stickers than anywhere else she'd seen. To put it politely - it's not Hillary country.  It's not exactly *intergrated* as she put it where she lives (deep DEEP suburbia) yet no one so much as mentions Wright, race, yadda yadda,what a relief.  Maybe they are used to preachers popping off.  Maybe they have brains in their skulls and can see that we can't be made responsible for things someone else says and that the man has spent 99%of his life doing God's work.  

I don't know, I assumed those folks would not take too kindly to KKK-America and all Wrights greatest hits.  But according to sis, all she's gotten is shrugs about it.

All I know is I'm glad to hear NC is Obama country.  Is there any better place for music on the planet than NC?  If so, please direct me.

Wandrey:

Better place on the planet for music?  Well, I heard there was this cool band out of Liverpool in England a few years back.  And some cool Brit bands out of Manchester (yeah, I love British rock; so sue me).

As for the Dems around here, like I said, many like my wife consider them just repug-lites.  I sort of do.  I bristle at what our Democratically controlled legislature and gubner do at times.  But, NC is one of the few southern states left where state gov't is controlled by the Dems.  The state was always a bit more progressive than it's neighbors.  I still stick by my assertion that the state isn't that friendly to Hillary.  Don't forget the outright threat Senator NO (i.e. Helms) made to Bill Clinton in the 90s if he wanted to visit a military base. And Bill is liked more than Hillary.

Dook doesn't bother me.   We just considered them just an outpost of New Jersey around here.