So, to be fair to pccostello and other Hillaristas, this is trailing-indicator data set that shows Hillary to be ahead. That's not actually strong evidence of a tie, is it?

It is going to be awfully hard to persuade some Jews to support Obama.  Look at Ed Koch's article posted on Newsmark.  It details all the things I am getting from my Jewish friends.

Here are some pointers for a response.

As Leon Wieseltier has pointed out on these pages, Jews too often still put their reliance on the support of the Prince to protect them from hostile Christian communities.  Historic memories and habits die hard (and aren't even past as Obama quoting Faulkner said about racial attitudes).  And as Wiseltier pointed out this may be delusional in a Democracy.

Most Jews who are anti-Obama fear because of his association with Wright and disbelieve Obama's rejection of that stance and his reaffirmation of Israel's right to self defense.  

BUT what I wish to ask Jews is how has Israel been helped by having as its "best friend" as President ever, Bush II?  I have heard reported that it was Bush that pushed Israel into its ill fated war with Lebanon whose purpose or success is hard to see.

How are Jews helped by having the Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld Irq war blamed on neo-conservatives, a code word for Jews?

How is Israel helped by having US standing at its very lowest in the world today?

Wouldn't Israel in fact in the longer run be helped by a president who was perceived as less "one sided" on Middle East issues.  After all no president is going to abandon our closest ally in the Middle East and support terrorism against the state of Israel when we too are targets of that terrorism as is the entire West.

Finally, Jews have done well in countries that do well and are not riven by ethnic and economic difficulties.  An Obama presidency is by far the most promising for what it would say Americans are prepared to do to put its own country and its own economy back on track.

I do wish that Jews were better able to assess their own self interest rather than being as manipulated by ill founded fears as are Fox News viewers int heir own ways.

I like that when Clinton leads 48-43, she and Obama are tied; but when Obama leads 48-43, it's a nearly insurmountable gap for Hillary.

What about Jews now favoring McCain because Obama appears to be getting the nomination, thereby putting some big states in doubt for the Democrats? I predict a major Jewish defection to the Republicans if Obama is chosen, which does not show up in this poll.

I agree that Israel should pursue a more independent foreign policy and not be reliant on the US as its protector. However, Israel is better served by a President who would not use the excuse of being "even-handed" to pressure it to make concessions without the guarantee of reciprocity or even good will, which is the sort of President I fear Obama will be.

Jews for Obama.  Is that like Jews for Jesus?

As a Jew for Obama who lives in Florida, I make the exactly the same arguments that Annabella2 and Marty Peretz are making on a seemingly daily basis. My conclusion is that right now most older Jews are diehard Hillary supporters who will not be receptive to considering Obama until after the primary is over, which may not be until mid-June, at that point they will consider Obama. The Republican pro-Bush Jews are about as likely to see Obama as the candidate most likely to benefit Israel as Sean Hannity. Yet Obama will not lose that many Jewish votes in November, provided Hillary does not openly endorse and campaign for John McCain.

Anti-semitism may be something of a disease of the mind, but it isn't airborne contracted.

I don't see where all the guilt by association comes from with regards to Wright and Obama.

And I wouldn't worry too much about a US foreign policy that is "even handed" and in any way rejects Israel with Obama or anyone else as President.  

Regardless of the reasons (historical guilt, shared strategic interests, lucrative defense contracts, or real hankering for hummous), I think we're about as likely to see America turning a colder shoulder to Israel as we are a pro-US Chavez.

I'm a Jew for Obama, too (what a mensch, Barack is!), and while I know plenty of Jews who are supporting Hillary for other reasons, I have not spoken to a single fellow Jew who actually believes that Obama is a stealth anti-Israel candidate. Even given Wright. There may be some old-timers or less-informed voters who are actually afraid of Obama or think he is seriously anti-Israel. But most Jews whom I know (for whatever that's worth, which isn't much) all, to a man and woman, say they would support Obama if Clinton does not get the nomination.

We're only 1.5% of the population. Even counting that we are more influential in states that have lots of electoral votes, I don't think that whatever percentage of the 48% that currently support Clinton (we're down to less than .75% now) that refuses to vote for Obama no matter what is actually going to put NY or CA in the red column. Maa-aa-aay-be FL, but still doubtful.

That said, hooray for Jews coming around and seeing the light!

epic is right, at 1.5% of the population who really cares? is the Jewish vote can be shown to be a barometer of something, fine, but a barometer of what I don't know. Far more important to talk about Catholic vote, but since that is so diverse that becomes almost pointless as well. How about the Methodists who drive foreign cars vote? That is surely 1.5% of the pop. surely they account for something too.