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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
17.03.2008
Do Caucus Results Foreshadow Superdelegate Appeal?

MSNBC's First Read makes an interesting point about the way to interpret caucus results (scroll down to the fourth item):

Clinton’s super problem: By our count, the Clinton campaign hasn’t publicly announced the support of a new superdelegate since just after February 5. Indeed, since Super Tuesday, Obama has gained 47 new superdelegates, while Clinton has lost seven (including Eliot Spitzer). Does Clinton have a bigger problem on the superdelegate front than folks realize? Why do we think party leaders -- who saw the Democrats lose governorships, state legislatures, and the control of Congress during the Clinton years -- suddenly jump on board the Clinton campaign? Isn't this the reason the Clinton campaign has only been able to keep uncommitted supers from climbing board Obama's bandwagon but they haven't been able to woo a new super to their side in a month? ? Isn't this also an explanation for why the Clinton campaign has done so poorly in the caucuses? The caucuses are made up of the activists who follow this stuff closer and think about things like electability and who can help the party keep Congress, etc. If Clinton's not winning over caucus activists, why should we believe she'll win over a large enough chunk of superdelegates to overcome Obama's pledged delegate lead? Ultimately, her best chance is to convince supers that Obama is completely unelectable on par with McGovern, an argument that might have been helped a tad by Rev. Wright. [emphasis added.]

It does seem a little tricky to argue, on the one hand, that you do badly at caucuses because they're undemocratic but that, on the other, you're going to clean up in the most undemocratic "caucus" of all (i.e., the superdelegate caucus). Obviously, the disproportionate influence of party activists isn't the only reason Hillary has struggled in caucuses. But I'd guess there's something to this.

--Noam Scheiber 

Posted: Monday, March 17, 2008 2:11 PM with 6 comment(s)

Comments

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scottlooper said:

What's trickier yet is to argue that SDs should go the way of the popular vote -- but then celebrate when they follow their caucuses, instead.  Texas, anyone?  (If you look at Obama's web-site, he claims to have won Texas -- and Nevada.)

March 17, 2008 3:15 PM

AlanSP said:

I don't really think this is a good analogy.  The "activists" that show up disproportionately at caucuses are different than the "activists" casting votes as superdelegates.  The extreme left wing of the party, for example, is well represented among grassroots activists, but far less well represented among superdelegates, if only because extreme left wing candidates are generally less likely to win elections and become superdelegates than their more moderate counterparts.  In fact, superdelegates were introduced for the specific reason that they were different from the party activists in primaries and caucuses.  The (poorly reasoned) argument was that superdelegates would provide a moderating influence to keep the party from being dragged toward extreme candidates.

March 17, 2008 5:44 PM

ChillyOne said:

I don't agree that the "activists" that show up at the caucuses are necessarily different from the SD's, mainly beacuse "activist" isn't the correct adjective regarding caucus-goers. I realize it's a popular perception right now, but in my experience simply isn't accurate.

I'm certainly not on the far-left of anything, yet haven't missed a caucus since college. My neighbors who showed up to caucus this last Feb. consisted of young mothers, blue collar workers, old folks, parents and their children and more than a few farmers. Certainly you wouldn't consider farmers to be left-wing liberals with some extreme agenda?

I simply happen to beleive that showing up is not only my right, but my responsibility, and I and my neighbors do what we have to do to get there.

March 17, 2008 7:19 PM

AlanSP said:

I wasn't implying that all caucus-goers are extremely left-wing, just that this group tends to be overrepresented in caucuses (and primaries for that matter), because they tend to be more enthusiastic and have above average turnout. Comparatively few people are "passionately moderate," which is why on the Republican side, somebody like Arlen Specter can come so close to losing a primary to a strong conservative like Pat Toomey.

Regardless, my larger point wasn't about party extremes and primaries, it was that the composition of caucus-goers and the composition of superdelegates are likely very different.

March 17, 2008 8:15 PM

jobeek2 said:

AlanSP - the majority of superdelegates have also never won elections.

As a useful Baltimore Sun article mentioned, yesterday:

"There's another category of superdelegates, more numerous than the governors and members of Congress combined but almost totally out of the public eye: the roughly 400 activists who make up the party's national committee."

www.baltimoresun.com/.../bal-id.infocus16mar16,0,4378635.story

You can identify the exact numbers using a neat feature on the NYTimes website. It shows that

- Governors make up 29 superdelegates (and they're evenly divided between Hillary, Obama and uncommitted)

- Senators make up 46 superdelegates (and those that have declared are evenly divided between Hillary and Obama)

- Representatives make up 218 superdelegates (and they're evenly divided between Hillary, Obama and uncommitted)

- Party officials make up a whopping 421 superdelegates (and they're skewed to Hillary 162 to 122).

See here:

politics.nytimes.com/.../index.html

In short, some 60% of the superdelegates do not represent winners of popular elections, but activists. One can argue that they have much less at stake personally when it comes to a nominee's effect on the electoral chances of downticket candidates; and that unlike elected officials, they are not accountable to constituents whose vote they depend on. This could explain why they skew to Hillary, while the popularly elected officeholders are evenly balanced between Obama and her.

March 17, 2008 10:50 PM

tjlinko said:

The main reason that the "non-elected official" superdelegates skew toward Hillary is pretty simple. There isn't any mystery to it. The way that you get to be one of thees superdelegates (DNC members or leaders of top interest groups like labor unions) is by being involved in party politics. It means contributing to campaigns, working on campaigns, rubbing shoulders with party elite. To move up in this system generally means you've given and received some kind of favors along he way. And as a result, you may find yourself somewhat indebted (directly or indirectly). Indebted to whom, you may say. Well those who enabled  you to get where you are. And no one has more influence over that than national party leadership. And who controls national party leadership. Well when Bill Clinton was in power, by definition it was him.  So people at the elite levels of the party, in many cases came up while he was president, or shortly thereafter. And that influence doesn't fade.

For the elected supers, the calculation is much more complicated. Many of them have connections to the Clinton's as well, but they also have their own constituents' interests to consider. They also have to do the calculation about who, at the top of the ticket, would best benefit them and other elected officials in their state.

March 18, 2008 1:42 AM