As Isaac notes below , Geraldine Ferraro was on national television the morning , defending her controversial

Forget Kansas. Can he keep California if McCain takes over half the latino vote?

Will we ever see a TNR analysis of that swing voter group that will dominate this election?

For what it's worth (which, at 8 months out, isn't much) the two general election polls that SUSA did for Kansas in February had McCain +6 and +9.  The field hasn't really taken shape yet, but it's not unreasonable to think KS could be in play.

Hey, TNR writers, how about a picture of what states you collectively think will be in play for Obama or Hillary versus McCain, and why.

tep,

So far there's no compelling reason to think that California is in play or that the Latino vote is going to break toward McCain over Obama.  Sorry if I'm relying too much on the SUSA polls, but they're pretty much the only actual data available now.  Crosstabs for the two CA polls they've done recently are available here:

www.surveyusa.com/.../PollReport.aspx

and here:

www.surveyusa.com/.../PollReport.aspx

Keep in mind that margins of error are always higher for subgroups than for the overall poll.  For Hispanics in these polls, the MoE is about +/- 8%.

A couple things to point out.  First, Obama could still win if McCain gets over half the Hispanic vote. Note that he's at 51% with 46% of the Hispanic vote and an implausibly low 61% of the black vote (MoE on that is about 15%, so I wouldn't put much stock in it).  Second, in the polling they've done in states with significant Hispanic populations, Obama's done better than McCain among Hispanic voters everywhere except AZ, where it's tied, and FL.

I'm not saying there's no chance of CA coming into play, but there's no reason at this point to expect it to.

I won't go so far as to say it's impossible, but it would still be a tough row to hoe for Obama (or Clinton) to take Kansas.  If one were to go by the caucus results one wound think Obama would have a better chance, but February is way too far away from November (among other reasons).  

It would be very nice, however, for the Democratic candidate to be capable of having enough "coattails" to help bolster our two Democratic congressmen in their attempt to keep the state's House delegation evenly split.  Even if Obama doesn't win Kansas, can he provide a boost to Nancy Boyda and Dennis Moore, not to mention a newly-announced challenger to Pat Roberts (just heard it on the radio even as I was writing this)?  Can Clinton do this?  At this point I almost care more about this than his carrying the (admittedly small-electoral-delegate) state.

The Boeing/Airbus story is getting a lot of play here, but it's early and there's plenty of time for it to blow away in the wind.  It's hard to imagine a Democrat getting traction in Wichita...

Did somebody say "Wichita"?

www.youtube.com/watch

This flashback to the mid-1990s has been brought to you by the color blue, and the letters K and S.

Turns out the newly announced challenger to Roberts is Jim Slattery, once a congressman from some years back, who apparently got creamed in a governor's race and went off to Washington to be a lobbyist.  Doesn't really look like that much of a prospect against a well-entrenched senator, but I certainly don't know.  Still, I would like to continue to live in a blue congressional district.  

Rhubarbs: I don't get it.  But that's o.k., I don't get most things around here.

Alan - those polls seem way off. McCain is surely more popular with hispanics here than this poll's miserable 25% share vs BHO would suggest. Given the rather atrociously erroneous record of CA pollsters, I'll take this one with a canister of salt.

The only pollster I've seen, nationwide or at any level, who's on the mark consistently is Rasmussen. I'll wait for his CA poll before I conclude that McC is not a serious threat in CA.

"Carry on my wayward son... for there'll be peace when you are done..."

The Dems have about no chance to carry KS, though BHO would run about 10 points better than HRC.  Jim Slattery must really be bored with lobbying to have his head handed to him in the Senate race.

McCain's best hope in CA is to make the Dem spend a pot of $$ there.  Of course, if he actually wins it, it's game, set, match.

Has anybody heard of whatshername, governa of Kansas, shes a ah, whatdeyacallit, a ah DEMOCRAT?

Yes, Andrew, and she's not even the first female Governor of KS.  Progressives out there, no?  I'll give you HRC and 5 or BHO and 3.  Take your pick.

"McCain is surely more popular with hispanics here than this poll's miserable 25% share vs BHO would suggest."

I wouldn't assume that at all.  The Republican label is poison right now among California's Latinos (it's Latino out here, not Hispanic), and McCain is a Republican, despite his sometimes unconventional positions.  The fact that base-shoring nationwide will require he tack rightward on immigration just about puts the last nail in the coffin on McCain's Cali chances.  

butchie b -- If the general election were run like a primary, then I think BHO would have a shot.  But, sadly, I'm sure the Mike Huckabee crowd will come trundeling in for McCain.  But its a nice dream.

I mean to say, "If the general election were run like a caucus . . ."