Until the FEC commission has at least 4 members, there can be no fines levied, no matter how egregious the violation.  And new commissioners won't be appointed until Democrats and Republican reach an agreement.

So I'd have to say that John McCain is pretty much not screwed at all.

McCain's campaign has already communicated that they are fully prepared to disregard the FCC commissioner's opinion on this matter and if you think that the under appointed FCC is going to be allowed to actually enforce a ruling like this on the candidate of the sitting president's party then I've got some some Giuliani '08 trading market shares to sell you.

They may fine him after the fact for going past the limits but if he wins the election there will be plenty of contributors willing to pick up that tab. If anything the attempt to enforce the rules on him will be seen by many as an unfair attempt to hamstring him and probably only serve to endear him to conservatives who feel that they are constantly being aggrieved.

You're forgetting one of the skeeviest parts of this whole thing!  In the deal with the bank, mccain not only used the prospect of signing up for public funding as collatera, he agreed that if he couldn't pay the loan back on his own dollar and had to accept public funding, that he would not leave the race until he had repaid his loan.

so essentially the scenario could have arose where mccain was basically dead in the water in january (say romney was clinching the nomination), and so he accept public financing and stays in the race for a hwile longer, solely because he signed a deal with the bank mandating that he stay in the race and use the public funds to repay his loans.

its ridiculous

I have a hard time seeing the FEC taking McCain (or any major party nominee) out of the game by actually limiting his spending to $54 million. This will probably cause some problems for him, but I'm sure he can find a way to make the FEC overlook his transgressions, maybe with some minor penalties or something. My prediction is that this is primarily a problem for appearances, not a real roadblock in terms of spending or fundraising. It may just have the effect of canceling out Obama's flip-flop on public funding for most voters.

I think McCain is going to argue(besides his idiotic argument about the lists being the collateral) that the since FCC is  not  able to make a determination without having its full membership(3 Republicans, 3 Dems) as to granting him an opt-out, he should not be forced to stay in the FMF program without even a hearing.  Ultimatly, the Justice Department will have to take him to court if they want to stop him from financing above the legal limit, and as someone mentioned earlier, this Justic Department aint gonna do that.  So he will spend, and if he wins, he have zero legal problems; if he loses, thats another matter entirely. The issue will be both whethr the Public Financing was collateral on the loan--clearly it was; and whether the FCC not being able to issue exemptions has any legal significance in terns of his actions--the answer to that I don't know., but most likely it does not--an exemption is not automatic, and is up to the discretion of  the Commisioners.  In the end, McCain's electoral prospectCs will not be hampred on the financial front, unless by some miracle, the Justice Dep't starts enforcing US laws on Republican Politicians, and most Ironically, on the Politician who created these Financing laws,  John Mcain.  

Uh, no offense, Noam, but why are you so late on this story?  NPR--I think it was actually 'Marketplace' though it might've been 'ATC'--was all over this more than a week ago.

The NPR story said the JM took out 2 loans, the for the first of which he put up is personal assets as collateral.  The second loan, they said, was not formally collateralized at all, but the bank elicited a promise from McCain that even were he to fair poorly in the New Hampshire primary, he would stay in the race SO AS TO ACTIVATE FEDERAL MATCHING FUNDS.  In other words, he did secure the loan on the basis of future fund-raising receipts which he expected to be large after his expected New Hampshire win.  But a win wasn't guaranteed thus the need to invoke a potential Federal bailout.

A lot of issues regarding money are going to be a problem for McCain.

Now that he's brought Bush's top money men on board, Oliver and Reynolds, the focus will be on who's doing the bundling and where the money is coming from.

As money is "wrangled" - a favorite term from the Bush '04 campaign - it will be clear that Big Defense, Big Oil, and Big Pharma are funding his campaign. And in the new world of political vigilantes, where every hiccup ends up in the blogosphere, the money trail will be easy to follow.

In the past, with a safe seat to defend, McCain would always look squeaky clean - getting a lot of money from his wife's family and their business partners. Now he has to step up and put his hand out...it's going to be very revealing, and it will frame him properly: He's the new face for the Bush machine.

Isn't the main effect here to give Obama the cover he needs to decline public financing in the general? McCain has now set himself up for voted-for-it-before-he-voted-against it flip-flopping ridicule on public financing.

Having a public debate on whether or not McCain has accepted public financing NOW can only help Obama.  Just get some Obama surrogates out there loudly suggesting that McCain should be fined for transgressing public financing limits and make that the story of the week.  If it comes down to, "Well, we'll raise and spend the money now, and if we have to pay a fine later so be it," then McCain IS screwed.  Obama can just say that McCain is willing to risk breaking the law in order to finance his campaign, so how can I trust this guy?

The more public this argment is made, in other words, the more it is a lose-lose situation for McCain.

I agree with Rhubarbs... Obama now has the cover he needs to opt out of his semi-promise to accept limits of public financing.  Now he can outraise McCain 2-1.  

The Republican Supreme Court would assuredly bail McCain out.  This is all to do about nothing.

"The Republican Supreme Court would assuredly bail McCain out."

Maybe, but in the meantime McCain will have to spend days or weeks explaining why he is spending money in violation of the law.

bfd

Isn't the most the FEC can do is fine campaigns?  Certainly *could* be damning, but I just don't see it happening.

The biggest damage to McCain would be from the press and the amount of time and money he'll have to spend "fixing" the issue.  And since the average person wouldn't understand the implications of campaign finance law, I don't even see THAT happening.

tep, it is a bfd if the FEC rules he's committed to financing and the spending cap, and this might happen.

I understand that Obama said he'd go with public financing for the general election, but the McCain