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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
19.02.2008
Was Wisconsin Really So Favorable for Hillary?

I said it going in, and I'll say it coming out: Wisconsin was actually reasonably favorable terrain for Obama, whatever you may have heard to the contrary. As I laid out here, it's a lot like Iowa demographically, except younger and more African-American. (The 2008 exit polls are actually somewhat confusing on this question, since they reflect who turned out for Obama--e.g., an unusually large number of young people in Iowa--rather than relatively fixed demographic features of these states.)

In general, I'm not sure it's quite right to extrapolate from Wisconsin to Ohio. While it's true that both are, broadly speaking, Midwestern states with a lot of working-class whites, my hunch is that blue-collar voters in the upper Midwest (states like Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota) are more progressive on race than blue-collar voters in the Rust Belt (Ohio, parts of Michigan, western Pennsylvania, western New York.)

So, for example, via Mark Blumenthal, I see that ABC's Gary Langer says Obama pulled even today among whites without a college degree. That's a big development for him--as this Washington Post chart shows, the best he's done so far in a (more or less) two-way matchup is 50-37 in California and 57-42 in Virginia, at least if you ignore Illinois. On the other hand, there's one other place where Obama was basically even among working class whites: Iowa. (Though Edwards was obviously still in the race then.)

Anyway, my point isn't that Obama's not expanding his coalition. I think he is. It's just that an expanding coalition in Wisconsin or Virginia isn't the same as an expanding coalition in Ohio.

Now, Texas, on the other hand...

--Noam Scheiber

Posted: Tuesday, February 19, 2008 11:55 PM with 11 comment(s)

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ralphnelle said:

When he's lyrical, he's just an empty suit. When he offers details, he's a letdown. Yada yada.

February 20, 2008 12:05 AM

willpastor said:

One big plus for Obama no one seems to talk about. Most polls showed Obama winning Wisconsin by about five points. Exit polls had him up by twelve. He is winning by sixteen. Hopefully pundits will remember this next time they want to harp on "Bradley effect".

February 20, 2008 12:16 AM

epicciuto said:

The fact that Wisconsin is more African-American than Iowa should have made it *less* favorable terrain for him. He has done more poorly in states with some A-A's who don't make up a huge percentage of the population (enough to override the whites who lean Hillary-ward).

February 20, 2008 7:49 AM

fougasseu said:

Imagine if the NFL was covered by pundits. Tom Brady throws an incomplete pass - clearly a sign the Patriots are in trouble. Or tennis - Federer loses a set...time for him to go. One of the most exciting primary seasons ever, and the punditocracy is determined to "explain" Obama into ordinariness. Weird.

Superdupergigantic hordes of Democrats turn out to vote for Obama. His vote is more than double the size of all of the Republicans, combined. What's up? Hard to explain.

February 20, 2008 7:56 AM

ratnerstar said:

foug- I know!  It's weird and inexplicable.  It's almost like hundreds of thousands of people, I dunno, wanted Obama to be President?  Nah, too crazy.  

February 20, 2008 9:32 AM

johnalthousecohen said:

This is getting ridiculous. Before the Wisconsin primary, everyone was saying that Wisconsin had characteristics favoring Obama and others favoring Clinton, making it likely to be a close race. Now that Obama has won huge, it turns out that "Oh, it was actually very favorable to Obama!" So "the real test" is Texas and Ohio.

This could be a great lesson in "how to be a pundit." You always talk up the next thing that's about to happen as the "crucial moment" full of suspense and meaning. Then, once it happens, the next day you soberly explain that, eh, it wasn't THAT important -- the really crucial moment is what lies ahead! Repeat ad infinitum.

To answer Noam Scheiber's question about whether Wisconsin was actually favorable to Obama: yes, it was. Very favorable. Wisconsin favors Obama very strongly. By, like, 17 percentage points more than Clinton. In fact, it's starting to look like a whole lot of the United States is very, very favorable to Obama.

February 20, 2008 10:31 AM

colablease said:

"While it's true that both are, broadly speaking, Midwestern states with a lot of working-class whites, my hunch is that blue-collar voters in the upper Midwest (states like Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota) are more progressive on race than blue-collar voters in the Rust Belt (Ohio, parts of Michigan, western Pennsylvania, western New York.)"

Huh?  Milwaukee's not part of the Rust Belt?  Yet Obama beat HRC there by nearly two to one.  If white-blue-collar Wisconsinites are more progressive on race than those in Ohio, I doubt the explanation has anything to do with the lack of rust.  And, I might add, this line of analysis assumes that if Obama has trouble breaking through in Ohio, it's wholly attributable to race.  Maybe, maybe not.

February 20, 2008 11:44 AM

fougasseu said:

I sat in a great presentation on brand building a few years ago, a stood at the podium and started droning data, making his case methodically via very boring power point slides. Midway through, everyone was ready to faint, then suddenly samba music began to play, very softly, and a few minutes later a very pretty girl in a red dress walked across the stage, and left. The guy wrapped up his talk and made his point: everyone today will forget everything he said and only remember the beautiful girl in the red dress.

A great presentation on what it takes to make a lasting impression in order to build a brand.

Wonk all you want...Americans are never going to forget that blue dress. Ain't gonna happen.

Did the Clintons think the scandals didn't reach the Upper Midwest or as far as Hawaii?

Such hubris.

Time for a Change.

February 20, 2008 12:53 PM

Der nächste US-Präsident ... said:

Die Wähleranalysen aus Wisconsin zeigen deutlich, dass Barack Obama immer weiter in Hillary Clintons Bastionen einbricht. Die einstige Favoritin kann sich nicht einmal auf ihrer treuesten Wählergruppen mehr verlassen. Die Daten sprechen dafür, dass Clinto

February 20, 2008 4:32 PM

The Stump said:

Mark Blumenthal has an interesting post comparing the demographics of Wisconsin and Ohio, which look

February 24, 2008 11:52 PM

The Stump said:

It's been a while since I posed one of these political-sociological questions, but I think Indiana

April 10, 2008 4:06 PM