CW says working class voters turnout late.

Though...if the exit polls say Obama is doign well with working class voters, that could be irrelevant!

Also - isn't Wisconsin like 2 hours behind us? US being the east coast, with THEM being everybody else.

BTW, Mike, I'm always glad you post these hints.

1 hour behind.   4 time zones in the continental US: Eastern (not WI), Central (ya think?), Mountain (no, probably not), and Pacific.  You coaster sure know how to make use fly-over dwellers feel like we're part of the same universe.

Oh, but the hints raise expectations! Nobody can win.

sdemuth:

I had long suspected that there were some states in the middle of the coutnry, until Hillary Clinton convinced me that they didn't exist:)

If those words ("Wisconsin is almost the kind of state Hillary Rodham Clinton would have invented...") were indeed provided by Obama press secretary Bill Burton, then they were quoted verbatim and without attribution as the led in AP writer Alan Fram's story, "Wisconsin Will Test Clinton Support," now up on Yahoo (among others, presumably).

Is this the story of the night???

In terms of the tone of the campaign, voters today viewed Clinton as more of the attacker than Obama. 54% said she attacked unfairly, while 34% said that about him.

Who Attacked Unfairly

Wisconsin Democratic Voters

Clinton did 54%

Obama did 34

Headline: VOTERS REJECT HILLARY'S NEGATIVE ATTACKS!

sd, Wis con sin?? what is that again? isn't that a kind of cheese?

And Michael, if this hint is bogus, you raised my hopes unnecessarily for a few hours. I hope you can live with yourself if it is a false hope.

Still, from the gist of anecdotal reports I'm getting from friends in central Wisconsin, if I were a betting man, I'd put a fiver down on Hillary to win by 5 percent tonight. I'm hearing big elderly turnout in Madison, Janesville, and Dodgeville. Plus, leaked exit polls are always wrong, so exits saying Obama landslide = Hillary blowout.

I can't find the numbers easily on CBS News's website, but on their evening broadcast they showed exit poll results that indicated that HIllary was blamed much more for the nasty tone of the campaign, Obama was now tied with her as seeming like a credible Commander in Chief, and Obama was deemed much more electable in November. All three poll results would seem to indicate that Clinton is headed for her ninth straight loss this evening.

the CBS exit poll numbers are here:

election.cbsnews.com/.../exitPoll.shtml

Obama won women 51-49, and men 61-35.

Rhubarbs, if you're right about your prediction, you could make a killing on Intrade. Obama's Wisconsin contract is trading at 97.9, and Hillary's at 2.4.

Rhubarbs:

You're a grifter!!!:)

Thanks, Huntlib. Did you notice (in the CBS exit polls) that among white Independent voters, Obama took 60% and among all Republicans who crossed over, Obama took 70%? His cross-over appeal is solid and growing. In light of this, how does HIllary possibly build an argument that she's more electable? (Even pccostello couldn't do it.)

BHLnyc: been there done that, my friend. Hillary has been making just that argument for weeks now. To wit:

Hillary wins every demographics group outside of blacks and male latte-liberals. These latter two groups comprise a small portion of the overall electorate, and are over-represented in caucus states.  Furthermore, a large portion of his open-primary voters are Republicans, who will turn back to McCain in a general election. Finally, many of his victories come in Red states, which will be irrelevant come November.

Hence all of Obama's victories are phony, Republican-driven pyrrhic victories and won't translate to anything in a general election.

Never lose faith in Hillary's powers of argument. Anything is possible!

Again, guys, Hillary won white Democrats. Obama won because 35% of the voters were white independents or Republicans. Also, same day registration among college students (who are not college graduates) skewed his results there.

It doesn't appear that anything has changed.

jmkerr you should stop smoking the rock.  Nothing has changed!!!!  Are you kidding me?  Obama beat Hillary in a landslide in a state made up mostly of the sorts of people who are supposed to be her base.

Incidentally, I never bought the argument that Hillary has some natural advantage over Obama with lower-income whites in any event.  This argument has been premised on Hillary's performance on Super Tuesday in which Obama did not get to campaign as much in every state and Hillary coasted on her name recognition.  Lower income people pay less attention to politics than higher income people and I believe these lower income whites were not as aware of Obama's strengths as a candidate on Super Tuesday.  Consistently it has been shown that the more people get to know Obama the more they support him.

Further, so what if it's true that Obama won because of Independents and Republican votes?  Doesn't that mean he is a stronger candidate in the general election than Hillary?  Unless you believe those voters crossed over to the Democratic primary and voted for Obama as spoilers -- which is ridiculous since every Republican would-be spoiler would cast their vote for Hillary who they would much rather face in the general election -- Obama winning with non-Democratic voters only further proves his superiority over Hillary because it shows that he has a much wider base of support than she does.  Get it through your thick skull jmkerr that Hillary voters will not be enough to win the general election.  In order to win Democrats need both Hillary voters AND THE VOTERS WHO VOTE FOR OBAMA AND WOULD NEVER VOTE FOR HILLARY!  Obama gets both groups.  

What I just said goes for you too huntlib.  Why the heck would open-primary Republican voters who choose to vote for Obama necessarily switch back to McCain?!?    And the argument that Obama's wins in red states are irrelevant is idiotic.  The fact that a Democratic candidate is stronger in red states than his/her opponent is a strong indication that said candidate has greater crossover appeal than his/her opponent and therefore has a greater chance of capturing a red or, more likely, a purple state and winning the general election.  Are you seriously suggesting that because Obama lost to Hillary in blue as blue NY, MA, and CA that somehow he won't pick up these states in the general election?  Give me a break!  Almost every single Hillary voter will become an Obama voter in the general election and added to their votes will be all the people who hate Hillary and like Obama.  An unbeatable combination if you ask me.  Why do you think the Republicans are praying that Hillary pulls off the nomination?  Get a clue jmkerr, huntlib, pccostello, and all you other Hillary lovers and join the winning team now to help the O-mentum keep building to the general election.