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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
14.02.2008
Dept. of You Heard It Here First--Hillary Endorsers Edition

It looks like some of Hillary's prominent black endorsers (who double as superdelegates) are starting to have serious second-thoughts about supporting her. Here's what the AP is reporting this evening:

In a fresh sign of trouble for Hillary Rodham Clinton, one of the former first lady's congressional black supporters intends to vote for Barack Obama at the Democratic National Convention, and a second, more prominent lawmaker is openly discussing a possible switch.

Rep. David Scott's defection and Rep. John Lewis' remarks highlight one of the challenges confronting Clinton in a campaign that pits a black man against a woman for a nomination that historically has been the exclusive property of white men.

"You've got to represent the wishes of your constituency," Scott said in an interview Wednesday in the Capitol. "My proper position would be to vote the wishes of my constituents." The third-term lawmaker represents a district that gave more than 80 percent of its vote to Obama in the Feb. 5 Georgia primary.

Lewis, whose Atlanta-area district voted 3-to-1 for Obama, said he is not ready to abandon his backing for the former first lady. But several associates said the nationally known civil rights figure has become increasingly torn about his early endorsement of Clinton. They spoke on condition of anonymity, citing private conversations.

In an interview, Lewis likened Obama to Robert F. Kennedy in his ability to generate campaign excitement, and left open the possibility he might swing behind the Illinois senator. "It could (happen). There's no question about it. It could happen with a lot of people ... we can count and we see the clock," he said.

This won't come as a surprise to readers of our current issue. As I reported in my piece this week, many of Scott's constituents had been frustrated with his support for Hillary, and there was talk of it earning him a primary challenger:

[A]ccording to an Atlanta-based political strategist who works in the African American community, Representative David Scott could face more serious problems in Georgia, where Obama won nearly 90 percent of the black vote. "There are definitely rumblings among young people," says the strategist. "[The Hillary endorsement] was a lot riskier for Congressman Scott." Complicating the situation is the fact that there are now at least three formidable African American politicians raising money for what's expected to be an intensely competitive Atlanta mayor's race in 2009. At least two of those candidates will lose, leaving them with an organization, a fund-raising network, and an itch for higher office. It wouldn't be shocking if one of them challenged Scott.

The piece mentions a few other African American endorsers/superdelegates who are also strong candidates for a change of heart.

--Noam Scheiber 

Posted: Thursday, February 14, 2008 7:40 PM with 7 comment(s)

Comments

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arsonplus said:

Mwa-ha-ha-ha-ha!

February 14, 2008 9:17 PM

Crock1701 said:

Yeah Noam, but what's going on the Atlanta mayoral race?  I grew up there, but have lost track of local politics after being up in Connecticut for four years (especially since Shirley Franklin seems to brook no opposition in the city).  The only noise I'd heard about the 2009 Mayoral election was that, of all people, Clark Howard, consumer watchdog and uber-thrifter, was considering a run.  Give some scoop!

February 14, 2008 9:20 PM

thetraytiger said:

Let me add my own You-Heard-It-Here-First.  Forget delegate counts; what matters now are state wins.

At this point, because the superdelegates are going to hold the final decisive cache of delegate votes, perceptions matter most.  The superdelegates going to go with the winner of their district, or the holder of "momentum," which derives primarily from state wins.  Hillary can now only be saved by decisive (double digit) wins in Ohio and Texas, no matter the resulting delegate count.

Let me also say, if Hillary does manage to blunt Barack's "big Mo," the superdelegates will be so torn that a brokered convention will be all but assured.  For the Democrat's sake, the best outcome is for Obama to ride a March 4th upset wave and the ensuing mass defections to a triumphant nomination win.

February 14, 2008 9:40 PM

arsonplus said:

February 14, 2008 9:48 PM

JosephCuomo said:

Noam-

The NY Times website (as of about 9:45pmEST Thursday night) is reporting that John Lewis has already switched his superdelegate vote from HRC to Obama.

From the NYT piece:

____________________________________________________________________________

MILWAUKEE — Representative John Lewis, an elder statesman from the civil rights era and one of Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s most prominent black supporters, said Thursday night that he planned to cast his vote as a superdelegate for Senator Barack Obama in hopes of preventing a fight at the Democratic convention.

“In recent days, there is a sense of movement and a sense of spirit,” said Mr. Lewis, a Georgia Democrat who endorsed Mrs. Clinton last fall. “Something is happening in America and people are prepared and ready to make that great leap.”

February 14, 2008 10:09 PM

The Stump said:

Halperin : Take whatever you thought Clinton’s chances of winning the nomination before [John] Lewis

February 14, 2008 11:43 PM

virginiacentrist said:

You guys truly are the best political team on television/.

February 15, 2008 8:11 AM