Of course, Obama is doing a good bit of retail politicking in Wisconsin.  His speech at the GM plant in Janesville yesterday was a healthy dose of populism.  He may turn the election before Hillary even deigns to show up (which won't be until this weekend).  Bill and Chelsea are nice, but it says something that the candidate is elsewhere.

A second thought - what happens in Russ Feingold endorses Obama?  Does this make the state pretty certain for Obama, as Russ is very popular among the rank and file Democrats in my home state.

Obama needs to dial down expectations fast. I think he'll probably still win Wisconsin, but it won't be a landslide, and there's a frightening chance that Hawaii could come and bite him in the ass.

I'm surprised by this and believe Obama will win by more than 4 points.  Though that Bears v. Packers rivalry <em>is</em> intense.

Has there been any polling sense she endorsed hot peppers? This has the potential to divide the pepperjack and cheddar communities for and against Hillary.

Ditto prim on Hawaii.  That smart TNR piece on Hawaii's machine has me worried.  That would be a huge gift from Inouye to Hillary if he can deliver an upset in one of BHO's many home states.

Obama's response in Wisconsin: firstread.msnbc.msn.com/.../665649.aspx

What's especially worrying about Hawaii is that there's been NO PUBLIC POLLING. So how do we have the faintest clue where the election stands? Then again, presumably the campaigns have done internal polling, so we'd be able to glean from their spin of expectations what they're seeing.

Thanks for posting that response, xurichd. Brilliant rapid response on Obama's part.

Good response, thanks xurichd.  Hillary says Obama is afraid to debate yet they have already debated 18 times!!.  They didn't debate in MD-DC-VA, so why does WI have a god-given right to host debate #19?  Have its voters not figured out who's running and what they stand for yet?

Nah. That's an insignificant state.

A couple of references to "expectations" have me puzzled. It seems to me that expectations can play a psychological role with voters early in the race when each campaign is trying to get established (like the incredibly effective way Rudy tamped down expectations for every state pre-Florida). But at this point, beyond not seeming overly confident and pissing off voters with your smugness, what is the point? It's just a sprint to the finish now. All of the feinting and dodging and bluffing are over. Obama has a bunch more delegates. Hillary needs big wins in big states to get close enough for the Super Delegates to really come into play. If she pulls it off, the end-game probably gets ugly. If she doesn't and Obama keeps winning, she's toast. I hear commentators saying "well, the Clinton campaign is saying they have to win both Texas and Ohio or she's out, and the danger with saying that is, if she doesn't, shes really in trouble". Well, jeez, if she doesn't, she's really in trouble REGARDLESS of what they say now. Its down to simple math now - expectations are irrelevant.

Or am I missing something?

If Wisconsin saves Hillary, I'm boycotting dairy products until she's defeated in November.