Mike - I know it's CW that pledged delegates equal a win, but if Hillary wins CA, TX, NY, FL, PA, OH, MI, NJ, MA, and weird delegate rules (as in Tx above), plus Fl and MI not being counted, doesn't she have a legitimate case?

If she's down 1653-1600 in the pledged delegates, and up in the popular vote, are all the superdelegates really going to break the other way?  I mean, perhaps they will, because they don't want to decide anything, but they'll be deciding a 50-50 election against the popular vote winner and for the electoral college winner.  That'd be pretty bittersweet for Gore partisans.

Not sure the popular vote should be ceded to Clinton. Obama's ahead and looks to stay ahead; as Clinton's margins of victory have tended to be much, much, smaller than his.

The question re Texas is can she catch up in terms of delegates and its starting to look like she can't.

Personally, I'm not even sure she'll win Texas. Tons of gaming/interactive media companies have opened their doors in Dallas and Austin since 2000 and the gentrifying hipster communities where their employees have settled are going to go for Obama in a big way. I mean, how does a democrat lose Austin, Dallas and Huston and win the popular vote in Texas?

Texas, eh?

I believe Obama has been winning the gay vote in other states. He used the MLK holiday to make a strong appeal against homophobia in the african american community.. I think the importance of this is underestimated by pundits. How many popular/hip black politicians/pop culture figures (and that's what Obama is at this point) have used their position to rail against homophobia in black pop culture? Not many.

But what about steers? Anyone seen any polling data for steers?

Steers?  No.  But there's some indication that armadillos will break for Obama.

Everything I always wanted to know about Texas was written by Molly Ivins.

Could we please have an analysis of Obama's hispanic problem and what it means for his chances against a southwestern moderate who's been on record as being pro-amnesty?

Specifically, would Obama's weakness with hispanics

-- put CO and NM at risk?

-- force him to spend valuable cycles and ad $$ in CA?

-- extend to FL as well?

Or alternatively, is Obama's current weakness a fleeting problem explained mainly by low name recognition?

Mike, Noam, VAcentrist, anyone? thx in advance, t

A propos of same, per Pew today: US population projected to soar to 480m by 2050, with this breakdown:

"Non-hispanic white" - 47%

Hispanic - ** 29% **

Afr-Am - 13%

Asian-Am - 9%

Native Am - 2%

Given Obama's emphasis on change, future, hope, leading the new America forward in this new century etc, wouldn't it be a bit more reassuring if he had greater appeal to what is easily the most important, fastest-growing demographic in the nation?

Tep:

The key thing that we need is polling data.

We need to compare the hispanic vote in the generic dem presidential ballot with the hispanic vote in the McCAin vs Obama race. That will tell us the current conditions.

A few thoughts:

1. Immigration is not the only issue on hispanic voters' minds. They disproportionately oppose the war in Iraq and they're economic populists (minus enforcement first immigration). Obama will line up with them on almost every single important issue (minus the social issues).

2. The future is as huge question mark. I think that Obama tipped his hand in Calfiornia when he shamelessly pandered to hispanic voters. It didn't work (it was pretty limited), but from here on out, I think you're going to see Obama pandering to hispanics and McCain running to the right to shore up his base. With current conditions, I'm sure McCain polls well ahead of "generic GOP", but that gap will close quite a bit. And it's not just what McCAin does. The actions of his party (I hear that the Democrats are going to force some immigration votes this summer) will have a huge effect on McCain's support. If the conservative immigration demagogues come out of the woodwork again, then McCain will have to either quell the riot forcefully or face a violent conservative grassroots rebellion against his candidacy. Either way, Democrats win.

So...my answer is that hispanics favor Democratic policies and that the GOP brand will hurt McCain.

And frankly - as much support as HRC might have in the primary, she seems like the candidate more likely to pander to border hawks during the general election. She's in a strong position now, but that position will erode as she tries to pick off some border hawk votes from John McCain.