TNR BLOGS

July 04, 2009 | 6:29 PM
July 04, 2009 | 11:58 AM
July 04, 2009 | 11:32 AM

March 09, 2009 | 5:19 PM
March 09, 2009 | 5:16 PM
January 07, 2009 | 12:20 PM

July 01, 2009 | 10:33 PM
June 30, 2009 | 8:42 AM
June 29, 2009 | 9:09 AM

July 26, 2008 | 2:24 PM
July 23, 2008 | 1:55 PM
July 17, 2008 | 3:56 PM

July 03, 2009 | 10:13 PM
July 02, 2009 | 12:57 PM
July 01, 2009 | 7:02 PM
COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
10.02.2008
Obama Takes Maine

CNN has just called it, and it looks like he's going to win by a hefty margin. It would have been nice to see some entrance poll data, but, alas, there isn't any.

My hunch is that the Clinton campaign didn't make much of an effort to turn out its supporters today. There are enough white working class people in Maine to have made it relatively close. (Unless Obama has started to make some real inroads among the white working class--again, would have been nice to see demographic data.)

--Noam Scheiber

Posted: Sunday, February 10, 2008 7:03 PM with 18 comment(s)

Comments

You must be logged-in to comment.

Not a subscriber? Click here to get a digital or print and digital subscription to The New Republic!

Crock1701 said:

Not only that, he takes his second Grammy!  

(Just as many as "Weird Al."  Make of that what you will.)

February 10, 2008 7:22 PM

rozenson said:

Wow, the organizational strength between the camps is not even close right now. Hillary lost an opportunity here.

February 10, 2008 7:27 PM

huntlib said:

Ouch. Is it still 57-42%?

February 10, 2008 7:30 PM

ralphnelle said:

Who needs data? Clearly, it was the African Americans who carried Maine for Obama this weekend. And, besides, at least 10,000 of Hillary's supporters had to work today. I think all of them are nurses. Same thing happened yesterday in Washington and Nebraska. By contrast, none of Obama's supporters work for a living. Some guy named Penn just said so on Fox. He also said Fox is fairer and more balanced than MSNBC.

February 10, 2008 7:33 PM

AaronBBrown said:

Please excuse me I cannot restrain myself from a moment of gloating.

In-your-face Hillary!!!

And the wicked witch of the pseudo liberal West goes down!

Okay I'm done now.  :-)

Obama 08, AMERICA WINS!!!

February 10, 2008 7:55 PM

arsonplus said:

59%, Clinton 41% ...Clearly there's been a massive flood of Latte sipping African American knowledge workers into rural Maine,

February 10, 2008 8:02 PM

JosephCuomo said:

Noam-

A quick look at your most recent posts would seem to suggest that you're bending over backwards to give Hillary the benefit of the doubt--or more.

"Hillary May Have the Edge in Maine," you write.

And: ". . .what's clear is that the terrain [Maine] isn't super-favorable for [Obama]. . ."

And: "Yeah, Maine looks pretty good for Hillary."

You also suggested that an anti-Hillary storyline (re: the firing of her Latina campaign manager) was "urged on" Matt Drudge (as if Drudge EVER needed such urging), presumably by Obama supporters.

And now that Obama has taken four state primaries in a row--Washington, Louisiana, Nebraska, and Maine--you write: "Is Hillary Momentum-Proof?"

And: "My hunch is that the Clinton campaign didn't make much of an effort to turn out its supporters today [in Maine]."  As if this explains away Obama's unexpected win.

So what is it with you, Noam? Is all of this just pure coincidence, or are you shilling for Hillary?  

February 10, 2008 8:31 PM

primwallflow said:

From: Mark Penn

To: <<HIDDEN>>

Re: UPSET OF THE YEAR: Hillary loses Maine by less than 20%!

Dear friends of the Presidents Clinton,

We always knew we'd lose Maine. Always. In fact, when Hillary declared last year, in our first strategy session, she made a $5 million side bet with me that the Pine Tree State wouldn't go her way (by the way, as a result of this, Senator Clinton is now no longer in debt to her campaign). And the Obamaniacs at CNN and the chauvinazis at MSNBC have been parroting this line diligently.

So who knew that the triumph of beating a 20-point spread would taste so sweet?

But there are other reasons to doubt the importance of the results from Maine:

1. Maine is a longtime African-American stronghold, anchored by the vast chocolate cities of Bangor and Augusta.

2. Maine was a caucus. Obama has won every caucus this year. Every single one. Except the ones he hasn't.

3. Maine practically plays backyard to Illinois. Of course, when you're swimming in ill-gotten slum cash, everywhere's your backyard.

4. Reviewing the Webster-Ashburton Treaty of 1842, you'll be as shocked as I am to learn that 19th century surveyors misdrew the borders between the United States and then-British North America, known to us now as Canada. In fact, the entirety what we now know as "Maine" ought to be in the province of Nova Scotia! Last I checked, they don't have a primary.

We're used to seeing dirty tricks from Barack "Rezko" Obama, but giving Canadians the vote is a new low.

5. Did you know that Maine used to be part of Massachusetts? Bet you didn't! And we all know how Massachusetts voted last week.

In short, this was a stunning upset over our stubborn rival. Hillary would like to share her deep appreciation by sending you an invitation to donate to her campaign. Primary funds only please.

Victory in November!

Mark

February 10, 2008 8:32 PM

JosephCuomo said:

Brilliant post, primwallflow. Likewise, ralphnelle and arsonplus.

And as this seems to be thread for Obama gloating, I'll repost the following:

____________________________________________________________________________

First, the strategic reasons for voting for Obama over Hillary:

1. Hillary is hated--and it's a deep, visceral, uncompromising hatred--by millions upon millions of voters within the GOP base, as well as millions upon millions of independents (not to mention, the hatred many lefties have for her, antiwar lefties, anti-establishment lefties, anti-lobbyist lefties).

2. If HRC is the Dem nominee, it will light a fire under the GOP's collective ass, rally its base big time, with bucks and volunteers and voters voting en masse.

3. If Obama is the Dem nominee, the GOP will not have as easy a time of it, getting donations, getting volunteers, and getting the vote out. Especially with McCain at the top of the ticket (please see item #4 below). There is no deep-seated conservative hatred for Obama. Indeed, there have already been flattering pieces about BHO in the conservative press, from this week's National Review to Peggy Noonan's article in the WSJ. And in states with open primaries, Obama has already received numerous votes from Republicans.

4. As has already been demonstrated, John M has trouble with his own base--social conservatives, fiscal (tax hawk) conservatives, wacky (but numerous) evangelicals--they all seem to be cool at best to McCain (at worst they openly revile him: he was booed this past week at CPAC), but these are precisely the kind of Republicans who would be DRIVEN to vote for him and volunteer for him and give money to him: in order to defeat Hillary. Take Hillary out of the equation, and the right-wing enthusiasm for McCain shrivels.

______________________________________________________________________________

Now, the substantive reasons for voting for Obama over Hillary (or McCain, for that matter):

1. HRC failed the single most important test of her tenure in the Senate: the vote on the Joint Resolution.

2. Hillary is beholden to lobbyists in a way that BHO is not.

3. The sleaze factor surrounding HRC's fundraising efforts--and those of her husband--is unforgivably high (for more on this, please see: www.tnr.com/.../story.html).

4. McCain's support for the adventure in Iraq (from Joint Resolution to surge) is an abomination. Indeed, in this regard, he has his nose so far up Bush's ass that he should be able (as they say) to taste the Brylcreem.

5. Obama's accomplishments in the Illinois State Senate are impressive, particularly the bill he played a major role in passing (35-0) to check police torture by requiring the videotaping of all interrogations (making Illinois the first state to require such videotaping). He also played a major role in passing the state's first earned-income tax credit (on behalf of the working poor) and its first ethics and campaign finance law in 25 years ("one of the best in the nation on campaign finance disclosure," according to the Post). Then in the US Senate, he co-authored a new lobbying reform law, requiring lawmakers to disclose the names of lobbyists who bundle contributions for them, and played a major role in passing what the WP called "the strongest ethics legislation to emerge from Congress yet." There are other examples (for more, please see: obsidianwings.blogs.com/.../obama-actually.html), and then there is also the fact of his opposition to the war from the very beginning.

6. Obama is clearly the most articulate (and brilliant) orator now active in American politics.

7. Is there a cult, or quasi-cult, that has sprung up around BHO? Yes. Are the cultist worthy of brutal, unflinching satire? Yes. Is virtually everything that Oprah says a joke, including her reasons for supporting Barack? Yes. Is the youtube video, "Yes We Can"-- starring, among others Scarlett Johansson--a parody of itself (to see the video: youtube.com/watch)? Yes. Are these reasons enough to abandon the candidacy of the most engaging, electable (albeit imperfect) candidate the Dem party has produced in years? No.

_____________________________________________________________________________

All of which is to say, I'll take Obama, sans the kool aid, thank you.

February 10, 2008 8:43 PM

ralphnelle said:

primwallflow: laughed out loud several times. Brilliant stuff.

February 10, 2008 9:00 PM

epicciuto said:

Ralphnelle, very funny. Prim, you're on fire today!

February 10, 2008 10:11 PM

drdannyu said:

I'm a little late to posting today.  It was hard getting to work here in Augusta, what with all the race rioting.

Prim, fantastic post.

February 11, 2008 8:19 AM

stgla said:

prim -- brilliant!  You really know Mark Penn if you have him calling Augusta and Bangor the twin chocolate cities.  That's truly creative that Hillary's 3 point win in the former Mass Bay Colony should include Maine as well.  When Obama wins Hawaii I'm sure Penn will scoff at "that archipelago's very recent entry into the Union."

February 11, 2008 10:09 AM

pawlowski said:

Let's get realistic.  Although Obama won by a 60% to 40% margin, look at the raw numbers (which it should be noted were never reported in the Washington Post): Obama had 2,079 and Clinton had 1,396 with 100% precincts reporting.  This is a differential of only 683.  My voting precinct alone has more than double this number.    

February 11, 2008 10:30 AM

redbird52 said:

pawlowski,

It was a caucus. Those 683 are much higher value in elective terms than they would be in a primary or general election. The realistic assessment is BO's team turned out the motivated caucus-goers much more effectively than did HC's team. That's a trend that started in Iowa and bodes well for BO's power to turn out tons of erstwhile unmotivated or Republican-leaning voters in November.

Heck, I just found out my pro-life mom voted for him in the Missouri primary. She's a former Democrat, practically a pacifist socialist, who flipped in the '80s over the abortion thing. I.e., the exact demographic that the Dems need to absorb in order to diffuse this counterproductive culture war.

Needless to say, she wouldn't be voting for Clinton come November.

February 11, 2008 10:49 AM

blackton said:

primwallflow: are you afraid of what will happen if you channel Mark Penn for too long? Great stuff.

I think I found a post from a Clintonite that jumped the shark, this after I spoke out about why I hate Hillary.

"No, you hate her because you are an hater, and all your reasons are just excuses.

We need to defeat hate, by electing Clinton."

February 11, 2008 11:53 AM

arsonplus said:

Didn't you guys hear Maine didn't count ... politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/.../clinton-dismisses-weekend-losses

February 11, 2008 4:14 PM

Ghost in the Machine said:

How will the Clinton campaign rationalize the losses over the weekend? It's not pretty. Said Senator Clinton: "'These are caucus...

February 11, 2008 4:47 PM