I'm a Wisconsinite, but I don't immediately see why my state favors Obama.

I'll try to answer my own question: I guess the Milwaukee area democrats are pretty heavily black, with a section of latte liberals (another Obama stronghold) thrown in on Milwaukee's Northeast side. Then Madison is, well, Madison, with lots of students comprising a significant population in what is a stereotypical bobo paradise.

I'm not sure if these stereotypes really hold up though. Basically, this is because I pay attention to local and state politics probably less than your regular listener to AM radio, watcher of local news, or reader of the Journal Sentinel. These diversions are not exactly my cup of tea. But Tammy Baldwin, the Madison area Congressional Rep (and, for pedants, the only lesbian in Congress), has endorsed Clinton. I also know that there are a lot of working class folks in Wisco. I don't know, however, if they typically vote Dem. If they do, Clinton might win. Care to serve us something more than (likely embarrassing) impressions, Noam?

I agree, but now you've raised expectations. And now Chris Matthews will call an Obama squeaker in Louisiana a "near upset."

every time she gets counted out... John Judis makes some great electability points here (blogs.tnr.com/.../who-won-super-tuesday.aspx). Two days ago, Obamamentum was running, and Hillary's obit was being written all over. This thing is not over and while the money and the landscape favor BHO, Hillary has a strong argument to make about her ability to win in November.

"Two days ago, Obamamentum was running, and Hillary's obit was being written all over."

Oh please. Having momentum, sure. But Hillary's obit being written all over? Going into today she was still, by the accounts of both campaigns, the favorite to win more states and more delegates. She most likely did neither. This characterization is dishonest. Just look at the final RCP poll averages... Hillary was the favorite basically everywhere except GA and CA.

And she still lost 13 states!

Wonks suffering from exit-pollitis. Forgetting all about the last month (and week) of polling.

Here's kos's prediction from earlier today:

"Note, a 13-9 split in favor of Clinton is probably too optimistic. 14-8 or 15-7 seems more realistic. Which states could go the other way? Connecticut, Colorado, and of course California would be the obvious culprits. But when I do these I go off of gut instinct, and my gut might be currently unduly influenced by the Obama Reality Distortion Field."

"There is one thing on this February night that we do not need the final results to know: our time...

So is "for demographic reasons" the new code for "lots of black people"?

I don't care whether you support Clinton or Obama, Stranley Fish's observations about the attacks on Hillary are worth ruminating about.  fish.blogs.nytimes.com/.../all-you-need-is-hate

Three more things we need to consider:

1) With the race for the Republican nomination all but over, independents who were voting for McCain can now vote in open Democratic primaries (Virginia, Wisconsin, Texas, and Ohio). This will only help Obama.

2) So long as it doesn't come down to a floor fight (and even then), an extended primary season is good for Democrats in November.  The focus will remain on Clinton and Obama, who will continue to debate, talk about the issues, mobilize voters, and dominate coverage.  For two months the press will all but forget about McCain while everyone remains glued to one of the greatest primary competitions in history. Excitement on the Democratic side will build, and more and more Democrats (like me in North Carolina 47th state to vote, will get a chance to have our votes counted). At the same time, already demoralized Republicans will stop going to the polls (the real story remains Dem vs Republican turnout).  Who knows if they can repair the damage caused by their divisive campaign - the "Stop McCain Now" movement was something to behold. So, even if Hillary ultimately does get the nod (and then picks Obama as VP, which will become increasingly likely the longer this goes on), she'll be in a great position in November.

3) There's still time for an Edwards and even Gore endorsement.  

skipper2379:

Noam might be thinking Wisconsin could go for Obama because he cleaned up in neighboring Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois. Is that so dumb? Is Wisconsin really so different from Minnesota?

I agree with BH -- as I'm the resident "but..." for Hillary Clinton, I'll add one point I saw on a pro-HRC blog: superdelagates will be wary of going against their constituents (it quotes Barbara Boxer as saying she'd support who won the California primary) -- that might help HRC stay afloat the next couple of weeks.  Her Super Tuesday performance also should help her raise much needed money.  

Dab: Wisconsin would never elect a pro wrestler governor!  Though Tommy Thompson did have his moments...

dabeffert:

more black people

I agree lymon that the money flows with wins, Hillary should start seeing more.  I'm not very familiar with the superdelegate concept, how is that they could go against constituents?  I'm a bit lost in the weeds here.

Obama's single best fundraising day came the day after New Hampshire, I thought I heard Axelrod say. At least up to that point - it might have been exceeded since then.

Stranley Fish, who the hell is that and why should I care about his opinion about how he perceives what Obama voters are like? Can't we all be happy that the zombie Romney is pretty much done? Rudy is gone, Romney is going, America is safe for 4 more years at least.

The only danger I see going forward for the Dems is the longer this goes, the more ill will will be generated. It would have been better for the Dems if there were a clean kill last night, now it will be a protracted knife fight. I just wish I could be sedated until November.

So now what? Like a lot of people, that was my first thought this morning, as I checked the final results

Poor Blackie.  Hell, boy, at least you don't live here, with all the Godawful ads.  They don't run 'em on Mexican TV, do they?

you are right butchie, I have not seen a single ad (except a few highlighted on the web).

Actually, I am pretty ambivalent now. I am delighted the Zombie Romney was killed, and think it will be great for the Republicans if it became a two man race between Huckabee and McCain, with Huckabee offering himself up as a sacrificial lamb in future races so McCain can stay in the spotlight. But since McCain has won (pretty much) the Repubs. then I just as soon Hillary win the Dems, so Obama will be poised big to win in 12 (if Hillary loses the general). I think we are heading into a real shitstorm economically and internationally. I won't be disappointed with McCain because I am not appointing him in anyway.

We are changing captains of the Titanic after it has hit the iceberg. I trust McCain to get more people safely to shore, with him essentially going down with the ship in 2012. Afterwards Obama would be the perfect candidate.

Of course, my theory goes to hell if Hillary wins the Presidency, in which case the Republicans will be reborn. I just don't see Hillary having a successful Presidency because she has made too many damn promises.

If Obama wins the Presidency, he might pull it off and be a great one but it is a huge roll of the dice.

Basically...Hillary Clinton is like one of those zombies in the movies that JUST WON'T DIE.

I just find it extremely amusing that the punditocracy, about 6 months ago, had it that the Dems had their inevitable candidate, but the GOP might go all the way to the convention, especially if that Thompson fellow gets in.  TV star, doncha know.  Oh, and McCain was not just merely, but really most sincerely dead.

Ahem.  They got it right, you see, except for the answers.  Blackie, you don't know how lucky you are not to have to listen to the bloviating pundit class, of all stripes, who can't pick the winner of a one-horse race.

Ok, rant over.

As for me, Johnny Mac will beat HRC, but BHO has a pretty good shot at beating him. Scares me to death, because he's SO green.

hey vacentrist, you always have to be careful when you put your hand into pandoras box to reach for hope, the little bastard just might up and bite you.

Responding to my post last night about how the upcoming primary terrain favors Obama, a couple of commenters

A lot of us in the press, including me , have looked at Maine on the primary calendar, noticed it was