Prediction: Hillary wins more states and delegates than Obama, in both cases by a margin equal to the number required to really depress me, plus one.

And since the only non-depressing outcome for me is Obama winning just about everything, with commanding enough popular-vote margins to effectively knock Hillary out of the race regardless of her delegate haul, I'm pretty confident in my prediction.

I have no idea what I'm talking about, but here goes:

Colorado -- Obama 40, Hillary 31

New York -- Obama 112, Hillary 169

Illinois -- Obama 133, Hillary 52

New Jersey -- Obama 54, Hillary 73

Massachusetts -- Obama 55, Hillary 66

California -- Obama 230, Hillary 211

Georgia -- Obama 68, Hillary 35

Minnesota -- Obama 52, Hillary 36

Missouri -- Obama 42, Clinton 46

Tennessee -- Obama 36, Clinton 49

Arizona -- Obama 30, Clinton 37

Alabama -- Obama 33, Clinton 27

Connecticut -- Obama 32, Clinton 28

Arkansas -- Obama 17, Clinton 30

Oklahoma -- Obama 18, Clinton 29

Kansas -- Obama 16, Clinton 25

New Mexico -- Obama 18, Clinton 20

Utah -- Obama 19, Clinton 10

Delaware -- Obama 10, Clinton 13

Idaho -- Obama 14, Clinton 9

North Dakota -- Obama 11, Clinton 10

Alaska -- Obama 10, Clinton 8

TOTAL: Obama 1,050; Clinton 1,014

Call the *individual states*?!  Oh please, we're not THAT wonkish here.  Are we?

Anyway, this is a wild hunch -- I wouldn't bet money on anything in either primary this year -- Hillary does a bit better than the latest polls indicate (say 50% to 43%, with 7% in the Edwards et al. ozone).  I can't shake the feeling that there's a Bradley-type effect where people are embarrassed to tell a pollster that they are voting for her, and that a lot of mothers are going to be thinking about their daughters and the generic desire for a woman president/example.

But hey, if I could be tipped into voting for Obama, an Obama landslide isn't impossible either.  

Yeah, if lymon has tipped- have we reached a tipping point?!?!?  

Also, I eloquently laid out the case for Obama to my girlfriend's roommate, and she switched to his camp.  So, in Illinois, a safe state for Obama, I got him one more vote.  I don't want to call myself a hero.  But I  think it is safe to say I am heroic.

Oh!  Predictions!

I am with Rhubarbs, actually.  I think Obama will keep it close heading into the other states, where he could pick up momentum, but Hill will win overall tonight.

Sorry, I just can't.  I have been the bane of many a Presidential campaign and Green Bay Packer games, and thus cannot really risk offering any kind of prognostication.

You see, if I tell you who I want to win, they will go down in an ugly ball of flames, scorching the earth, and forever making desolate all that is touched.  The legendary Roman salting of Carthage after the 3rd Punic War will be as nothing as compared to the wreckage that will be my candidate if I proffer my thoughts.

(That said, let me whisper my dream scenario...Oh, ok, I won't.)

*Sigh*

I think Hillary will do well in any state that is still considered a toss-up, particularly Missouri.  I think California will be split pretty evenly, as might CT.  I think she'll take NY and NJ handily, and will obviously win Arkansas.  I imagine she'll take Utah, though who the hell can tell?  He'll take Georgia, Illinois and Tennessee, probably MN, maybe KS.  I think that, when all is said and done, she'll come away with more votes and delegates, and I think a lot of the talk about Obama's momentum will fade as she becomes the eventual nominee.  I say this as an Obama supporter, because I am usually completely full of crap when it comes to things like this, and so being proved wrong will make me happy.

I also think that Rozenson went to enough trouble that, even if totally wrong about the guesses, he should get a prize equally nice to the one I got when I won that caption contest.

Clinton wins: Alaska, American Samoa, Arizona, Arkansas, Kansas, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Missouri, New Mexico, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah. Total: 13.

Obama wins: Alabama, California, Colorado, Delaware, Dems Abroad, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota, North Dakota. Total: 11.

Total Feb 5 Delegates: Clinton: 1032, Obama: 1036. Spread: 4.

Rozenson -- no offense meant -- I'm truly impressed!

"...a free copy of TNR's spanking new 2008 election voter's guide."

Anytime "spanking" and "election" are in the same sentence, there's reason for hope.

I'm far too addled to make any rational predictions, although rozenson's California numbers (Obama 230, Hillary 211) sound 'bout what I'm thinkin'.

Stop your damn mug talk!!!

Yeah, rozenson, I am really impressed.

I predict that everyone will have a good time. No?

Colorado -- Obama 38, Hillary 33

New York -- Obama 12o, Hillary 161

Illinois -- Obama 150, Hillary 35

New Jersey -- Obama 66, Hillary 61

Massachusetts -- Obama 61, Hillary 61

California -- Obama 218, Hillary 223

Georgia -- Obama 70, Hillary 33

Minnesota -- Obama 48, Hillary 32

Missouri -- Obama 48, Clinton 40

Tennessee -- Obama 51, Clinton 34

Arizona -- Obama 25, Clinton 42

Alabama -- Obama 38, Clinton 22

Connecticut -- Obama 28, Clinton 32

Arkansas -- Obama 20, Clinton 27

Oklahoma -- Obama 23, Clinton 24

Kansas -- Obama 20, Clinton 21

New Mexico -- Obama 12, Clinton 26

Utah -- Obama 12, Clinton 17

Delaware -- Obama 11, Clinton 12

Idaho -- Obama 14, Clinton 9

North Dakota -- Obama 8, Clinton 13

Alaska -- Obama 7, Clinton 11

Somoa: Obama 1 Clinton 2

TOTAL: I can't be bothered, but thanks to rozenson for doing all the heavy lifting. I just corrected his mistakes.

I forgot to list New Jersey as a Clinton win, but I incorporated its delegate count at the bottom. My bad.

I predict Somoa decides the nomination -- politics is never the same again.  

drdanny, no, my numbers are dead on. You just wait and see, I have a second sense about these things. And so far I have never been wrong about my super tuesday predictions. (and don't tell me any nonsense about how this is my first super tuesday predictions.) So I am looking forward to my spanking (new guide)

I won't predict all the states, but Obama wins Alaska. I know this because my mother switched to Obama allegiance shortly after moving there a couple of weeks ago. Oh yes, that's my big prediction.

Clinton wins (10):

New Jersey

Clinton 53

Obama 45

New York:

Clinton 58

Obama 41

Tennesee:

Clinton 56

Obama 43

New Mexico:

Clinton 52

Obama 47

Oklahoma:

Clinton 58

Obama 32

Other 10

Arkansas:

Clinton 60

Obama 38

California:

Clinton 48

Obama 43

Other 8

Arizona:

Clinton 52

Obama 47

Missouri:

Clinton 48

Obama 46

Massachusetts:

Clinton 53

Obama 45

Obama wins (14):

Idaho:

Obama 60

Clinton 38

Colorado:

Obama 53

Clinton 46

Minnesota:

Obama 60

Clinton 39

Kansas:

Obama 58

Clinton 41

Alabama:

Obama 55

Clinton 44

Georgia:

Obama 62

Clinton 37

North Dakota:

Obama 54

Clinton 45

Illinois:

Obama 68

Clinton 30

Democrats Abroad:

Obama 59

Clinton 40

Delaware:

Obama 60

Clinton 39

Utah:

Obama 54

Clinton 45

American Samoa:

Obama 52

Clinton 47

Alaska:

Obama 55

Clinton 44

Connecticut:

Obama 51

Clinton 46

Overall delegate split: Obama by 20

I can't imagine Clinton's not winning in popular votes and delegates here in the Golden State. Obama will do well but fall short of an "upset" perceptually. Elsewhere I defer to the rest of you. However my gut tells me Obama will do well enough to firm up his creds as a viable alternative candidate. From here on out Clinton will have to show she has an advantage among independents compared to McCain. In other words, tomorrow the fall campaign revs up to full power, which should initially give Hillary the edge with Democrats going forward. It will be interesting to see how Obama's campaign will pivot to meet and master the challenges of two simultaneous campaigns at once.

I should note that like drdannyu I'm almost always wrong, but its fun to predict anyway.

Any excuse to rub that mug in our faces, eh DrDan?

Honestly, I can't hold a candle to the people who've put actual effort into this, so I'll just take all of Blackton's numbers and raise them by 1 on the Obama side.  The ole Price Is Right technique!

Here's a simpler contest: Predict tomorrow morning's headline / media storyline. Possible choices:

A) Obama sweeps

B) Big day for Obama

C) Obama edges Clinton (unlikely, since that would go down as "Big day for Obama")

D) Super Tuesday tossup / split verdict

E) Clinton holds off Obama

F) Big day for Clinton

G) Clinton sweeps

I predict (B) based on the fact that the movement of the polls over the past week has all been toward Obama. If that has continued, he'll do better than the polls were suggesting.

Holy Spreadsheets, Blacton! I get Obama 1089  Clinton 961.

Anybody else?

My predictions:

Everyone will claim victory.

Chris Matthews will raise his voice.

Hillary will tear up.

For the record, what I was referring to with my win was this -- TNR didn't actually give me a damn thing.  That mug?  That precious, precious mug, which gives my life meaning and perplexes my coworkers?  Yeah, epackard made that at cafepress, and I paid for it myself.

I am, still, happy to rub it in everyone's face.  It will give me comfort when my predictions turn out to be full of shit.  

"two simultaneous campaigns at once"  tomeg

tsk tsk

I did only open delegate count split (those determined by the Feb 5th Primaries) as I have no clue how the superdelegates are going to fall.

Clinton wins: Alaska, American Samoa, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Missouri, New Mexico, New York, Oklahoma, Utah.

Obama wins: Alabama, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Dems Abroad, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, North Dakota, Tennessee.

Open Delegates Won: Obama 861, Clinton 843

State by State:

Alabama: Obama 30, Clinton 22

Alaska: Clinton 9, Obama 4

Arizona: Clinton 32, Obama 24

Arkansas: Clinton 25, Obama 10

California: Clinton 191, Obama 179

Colorado: Obama 33, Clinton 22

Connecticut: Obama 24, Clinton 24

Delaware: Obama 8, Clinton 7

Georgia: Obama 55, Clinton 42

Idaho: Obama 11, Clinton 7

Illinois: Obama 98, Clinton 55

Kansas: Obama 20, Clinton 12

Mass: Obama 49, Clinton 44

Minnesota: Obama 41, Clinton 31

Missouri: Clinton 47, Obama 41

New Jersey: Obama 55, Clinton 52

New Mexico: Clinton 17, Obama 9

New York: Clinton 130, Obama 102

North Dakota: Obama 9, Clinton 4

Oklahoma: Clinton 25, Obama 13

Tennessee: Obama 36, Clinton 32

Utah: Clinton 13, Obama 10

Again totally ripping off rozenson's monster effort:

Colorado -- Obama 44, Hillary 27

New York -- Obama 100, Hillary 181

Illinois -- Obama 151, Hillary 34

New Jersey -- Obama 44, Hillary 83

Massachusetts -- Obama 60, Hillary 61

California -- Obama 240, Hillary 201

Georgia -- Obama 77, Hillary 26

Minnesota -- Obama 55, Hillary 33

Missouri -- Obama 45, Clinton 43

Tennessee -- Obama 31, Clinton 54

Arizona -- Obama 25, Clinton 42

Alabama -- Obama 37, Clinton 23

Connecticut -- Obama 30, Clinton 30

Arkansas -- Obama 11, Clinton 36

Oklahoma -- Obama 15, Clinton 32

Kansas -- Obama 25, Clinton 16

New Mexico -- Obama 14, Clinton 24

Utah -- Obama 21, Clinton 8

Delaware -- Obama 13, Clinton 10

Idaho -- Obama 17, Clinton 6

North Dakota -- Obama 13, Clinton 8

Alaska -- Obama 9, Clinton 9

Totals (I think...): Obama 1077, Clinton 987

My head hurts now...

What fun is it if you don't call the individual states? I'm using blackston's numbers for the delegate counts per state, so if they're wrong blame him:

Colorado -- Clinton 33, Obama 38

New York -- Clinton 160, Obama 121

Illinois -- Clinton 57, Obama 128

New Jersey -- Clinton 66, Obama 56

Massachusetts -- Clinton 64, Obama 58

California -- Clinton 218, Obama 223

Georgia -- Clinton 43, Obama 60

Minnesota -- Clinton 41, Obama 39

Missouri -- Clinton 41, Obama 47

Tennessee -- Clinton 51, Obama 44

Arizona -- Clinton 35, Obama 32

Alabama -- Clinton 30, Obama 30

Connecticut -- Clinton 29, Obama 31

Arkansas -- Clinton 30, Obama 17

Oklahoma -- Clinton 28, Obama 19

Kansas -- Clinton 18, Obama 23

New Mexico -- Clinton 17, Obama 21

Utah -- Clinton 11, Obama 18

Delaware -- Clinton 11, Obama 12

Idaho -- Clinton 10, Obama 13

North Dakota -- Clinton 12, Obama 9

Alaska -- Clinton 12, Obama 8

Samoa -- Clinton 1, Obama 2

Not sure what the totals are, and it's possible my math is off by a point here or there. Basically I think Clinton wins the popular vote by 2-3 percentage points (including early voters) but loses the delegate count by 20-30 because of Obama's broader-based appeal.

The press is just itching to write another round of "Hillary in Crisis!" stories, so anything less than a solid popular vote/delegate count win by her will be spun as a setback. If Obama wins the popular vote in Cali and Mizzou, and a plurality of delegates overall, it's don't-let-the-door-hit-you time for Hillary.

The prediction I feel most confident in, however, is that CNN and MSNBC will use worthless exit poll data to arrive at totally incorrect conclusions...

"TOTAL: I can't be bothered, but thanks to rozenson for doing all the heavy lifting. I just corrected his mistakes."

I make no mistakes!

By the way, I think I used the wrong number of delegates in each state. RealClearPolitics lists more delegates than are up for grabs TODAY. In other words, my numbers are crap.

However, as we all know -- it's not about actually being right, it's sounding like you're right.

who knows how many delegates are actually at stake, and determining superdelegates is impossible.  however, i cannot resist the temptation to predict, though i will not show my math which would require pages upon pages of attachments (can one even post an attachment to a comment?)

here goes:

Hillary 915

Obama 710

Nobody seems to have noticed, but democrats abroad pick 21 delegates today. Take THAT Samoa...

Oh and my prediction:

The media portrays the outcome as inconclusive, even if Obama wins everywhere but NY or Clinton wins everywhere but IL. Too many advertising dollars at stake to call an end to the fun just yet.

From the Department of I-have-no-clue

Obama: Illinois, Georgia, Colorado, Arizona, Alabama, Connecticut, Kansas, Utah, Deleware, Idaho, North Dakota, Alaska, Massachusetts, Samoa, Dems abroad (is that today also?)

Clinton: California, New York, NewJersy, Minnesota, Missouri, Tennessee, Arkansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico.  

Delegates: Clinton by 30.

Tomorrow's headline:

FRONTRUNNER?

(With a picture of Obama)

This headline will result from Obama winning 16 states and about 55% of the available delegates.

Part of my prediction is based on wishful thinking.

Georgia -- Obama 50-37 (delegates)

Alabama -- Obama 29-23

Delaware -- Clinton 8-7

Illinois -- Obama 100-53

Oklahoma -- Clinton 22-16

Tennessee -- Clinton 38-30

Missouri -- Obama 37-35

Connecticut -- Clinton 25-23

New Jersey -- Clinton 55-52

Massachussetts -- Obama 47-46

Arkansas -- Clinton 21-14

Minnesota -- Obama 37-35

North Dakota -- Obama 8-5

New Mexico -- Clinton 14-12

Arizona -- Clinton 31-25

New York -- Clinton 139-93

Utah -- Obama 15-8

Colorado -- Obama 21-15

Kansas -- Obama 19-13

California -- (gulp) Obama 187-183

Alaska -- Obama 10-8

Total -- Obama 832-814

p.s. I'm not counting superdelegates, which are not allocated based on today's voting.

Mike, I just saw you on MSNBC. And there you are saying you don't want to make predictions. You're just going to rely on us, the masses to make silly guesses huh? Fine, have it your way, sir.

FIRST RESULTS FROM SUPER TUESDAY:

Democrats Abroad breaks 75-25 in favor of Obama. Those who predicted his win move one step forward.

www.breitbart.com/article.php

um...if Rozenson got the initial numbers wrong then just count mine as percentages, ok. I really, really want to get my spanking (voters guide) and I shan't be denied.

I predict I will be drinking alone, no matter what the outcome...

My delegate totals follow jhildner (I don't know why the media always focuses on the total delegate count when super-delegates have free reign...more misinformation...) I hope you did your math right! Also, it's premised on Obama doing better than expected. No fun otherwise...

Georgia -- Obama 55-32 (delegates)

Alabama -- Obama 32-20

Delaware -- Clinton 8-7

Illinois -- Obama 115-38

(P.S. my brother, 25, just voted in his first election, in the IL primaries - and he hated Bush in 2004!)

Oklahoma -- Clinton 22-16

Tennessee -- Clinton 36-32

Missouri -- Obama 37-35

Connecticut -- Clinton 26-22

New Jersey -- Obama 55-52

(I'm predicting a shocking, albeit narrow, Obama upset)

Massachussetts -- Obama 50-43

(I think the endorsements of the three biggest statewide elected officials should give him more than a narrow victory, though not a landslide)

Arkansas -- Clinton 21-14

Minnesota -- Obama 40-32

(he's from the Midwest, and its a caucus, so his organizational strengths should shine)

North Dakota -- Obama 9-4

New Mexico -- Clinton 16-10

Arizona -- Delegate tie 28-28

(Clinton wins the popular vote, but Obama carries the countryside - the governor's endorsement has to mean something!)

New York -- Clinton 132-100

Utah -- Obama 13-10

Colorado -- Obama 20-16

Kansas -- Obama 19-13

California -- (gulp) Obama 187-183

(I have to agree, right down to the gulp - but I would add that Obama will run away with the Bay area, but it will be a close victory for Clinton in Southern California)

Alaska -- Obama 12-6

(Why not?)

Total -- Obama 873-773

It's just crazy enough to work!

BHLnyc -- I think that was only in Indonesia, which makes sense, given that Obama lived there.

I voted in the Democrats Abroad election in London, and thanks to the pseudo-caucus action and ballot boxes handily labelled Clinton or Obama, I'm pretty sure Obama has at least a 60/40 lead here.

Consider that a retrodiction.

My prediction is noted above, but I want to express one thing I will personally be looking for:  Does the percentage of delegates each candidate wins tonight reflect the percentage of ACTUAL popular vote won by each candidate.

Does anyone else have nay interest in this novel concept?

Crap, I forgot Idaho.  Obama 11-7.

Totals:  Obama 843-821

______________________________________________________________________

My predictions for Super Tuesday (and beyond):

1. Hillary tears up.

2. Bill says something stupid.

3. The pundits make predictions.

4. The polls are wrong.

5. Obama gives a brilliant, inspiriting speech.

6. The country watches American Idol.

____________________________________________________________________

Can we talk prize?  I've already read all of those wonderful articles.  They're all sitting on my coffee table somewhere.  Let's talk merchandise:  Mugs?  Tote bags?  Underwear?  A pamphlet of every photo TNR has ever run?  A pamphlet on famous Jewish sports legends (edited by Marty with his own thoughts and recollections)?

I think JosephCuomo just took it.  There is no way his predictions can be wrong.

One thing has been bugging me - who's going to get stuck with the thankless job of grading the serious submissions to this "contest"?

jw:  Good question.  I'm no expert on the math, but I think that it will probably work out that way for the most part.  Most states allocate the majority of delegates based on proportional votes within congressional districts.  Sometimes, I believe, heavily Democratic districts will get more delegates, so that's one factor that doesn't quite track popular vote.  Some districts only have a few delegates, and anomalies may result, but I think they cancel each other out.  Sometimes getting a certain huge percentage will give you a "bonus delegate" within a district, to help correct for such anomalies (e.g., getting the same delegate count within the distrct regardless of whether you barely won the district or won big).  I'm not sure if this congressional-districit proportionality will tend to make a small lead larger if it's spread out across the state.  Just don't know.  Then, I believe most states have a series of at-large delegates who are allocated proportionately on a statewide basis.  My predictions basically translated my guess on popular vote outcome into a delegate count.  I don't have the expertise or time to tease it out any further than that.

bcbaird-

Thanks for the kind words.

I am winning so far with Georgia in my column. Let my rout begin.

Obama wins Delaware! I'm batting 100% right now.

Looks like I was right about Missouri.