Obama winning California outright would certainly appear to be the beginning of the end for Hillary, in terms of denying her the momentum to raise money for future contests, but in terms of delegates Hillary would almost certainly still be close (and may even lead depending on her margins in other states) and so could not be counted out. The point is that we want a "winner" on Super Tuesday, a winner not forthcoming when all the primaries are proportional. So, we've elevated the popular vote in California to be the "prize" of the night, even though, again, Obama and HRC will almost certainly just split the delegates.

Does anyone know if all ads during the superbowl are national? Have any campaigns bought time during the Superbowl?

Cali on its own will not a nominee make, at least not the way Dems allocate delegates. But it seems unlikely that Obama could win California without also winning most of the other Feb Five states. It would take a cresting national wave of pro-Obama opinion for him to be on top in California. So Cali is like the house on a hill of Tsunami Tuesday: If it gets wet, it will be a good bet that the houses on lower ground are flooded too.

Oh, and epicciuto, there are local Superbowl ads, not just national. Don't know whether anyone has bought, or if so where, but local stations do have some Superbowl slots to sell.

There are reports here in New Jersey that there will be an Obama ad run .  I don't know if that means the NY Fox Station or Philly's, since we have no major broadcast stations of our own in the Garden State

Thanks Rhub and Kev!

I'd like Obama to come out on top tomorrow, but do we really want this primary season to end just yet?  I for one would love to have my vote count in my state's primary, which won't happen until May.

But beyond that, a longer - so long as it doesn't get too nasty - primary season would seem to help Democrats. John McCain is going to become the Republican nominee tomorrow and the press will pay less attention to him in further contests. But Democrats will get another three months of massive press coverage in what is the most exciting primary in I don't know how long. They'll get to talk about the issues, mobilize voters, bring independents to the polls.  Moreover, as Crowley pointed out (or someone at TNR), the calendar favors Obama after February 5.  It's now almost certain he's going to do well enough to continue after February 5, so he'll be okay.

No, lets keep this party going and let more people get to know Obama.  

If it goes too long, it will end up on the convention floor, right? And with the Clinton machine in full swing and party insiders making the calls, can't we guess how that will turn out?