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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
22.01.2008
A Key Newspaper Endorsement for Obama

Whatever you think of Obama's performance in last night's debate, his just-announced endorsement by The State, South Carolina's largest newspaper, could end up being just as influential if not more so in Saturday's primary. You can read the whole thing here.

This passage is particularly interesting:

On positions from Iraq to health care, the policy differences between Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama are minute. Much of the debate between them has involved making these molehills look mountainous or clashing over who-shifted-when.

The one most significant difference between them can be found in how they would approach the presidency - and how the nation might respond.

Hillary Clinton has been a policy wonk most of her life, a trait she has carried into the U.S. Senate. As her debate performances have shown, she has intelligence and a deep understanding of many issues. Her efforts in New York focused first on learning her adopted state’s issues in detail, and pursuing legislation that would not necessarily grab headlines.

But we also have a good idea what a Clinton presidency would look like. The restoration of the Clintons to the White House would trigger a new wave of all-out political warfare. That is not all Bill and Hillary’s fault - but it exists, whomever you blame, and cannot be ignored. Hillary Clinton doesn’t pretend that it won’t happen; she simply vows to persevere, in the hope that her side can win. Indeed, the Clintons’ joint career in public life seems oriented toward securing victory and personal vindication.

I said yesterday that Obama's best hope is to frame the race as a choice between the future and everything you didn't like about the 90s. This editorial goes a long way toward doing that for him in South Carolina...

Update: The Edwards campaign points out that The State endorsed Joe Lieberman in 2004, just two days before he lost South Carolina and dropped out of the race for good. Fair enough. But asking a newspaper endorsement to deliver a primary for Joe Lieberman seems like a pretty high bar...

The State clearly has some credibility among South Carolina voters. And if it has particular credibility in the eyes of the people who'd consider supporting Lieberman, then it could help Obama with the all-important white vote on Saturday.

--Noam Scheiber 

Posted: Tuesday, January 22, 2008 3:37 PM with 29 comment(s)

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timteeter said:

Note that the Atlanta Journal-Constitution has also endorsed Obama.

January 22, 2008 4:04 PM

rozenson said:

If these help anyone at all. But it definitely is framed in an honest way that helps Obama. People approved of Clinton's presidency, but they sure didn't miss him when his term ended.

January 22, 2008 4:05 PM

primwallflow said:

The real question is whether this convinces white voters. Obama is favored to win SC, and Hillary seems to be conceding it, so really the only surprise coming out of Saturday (other than a loss, which would simply be the end of Obama) would be if Obama got a plurality of the white vote.

January 22, 2008 4:12 PM

aschindler said:

The only way Obama will get enough Dems to support him is if he casts doubts on the greatness of the 90s. Hillary's name recognition and the Clinton's overwhelming support among loyal Dems is otherwise too large a hurdle to overcome. Though she would never admit it, Hillary's main argument for being president is that the 90s were great and we'll get back to that. Reminding people of what wasn't great -- the healthcare fiasco, losing control of Congress, the constant partisan bickering -- could make people want something new and play well for Obama. As a final trump card, Obama could remind people that Al Qaeda was built up through the 90s without the Clintons doing anything about it. It's a risky move, but it's one of his few remaining arrows.

January 22, 2008 4:40 PM

propositionjoe said:

The Clintons are doing South Carolina just right. In having Hillary leave for some days, they seem to be conceding the state while letting her ring up votes in key Super Tuesday states. But in having Bill still stay behind (he is staying, right?), they are leaving a strong hatchet man to eat into Obama's plurality. These people are pros. You have to respect it.  I wonder what Obama could do if he were married to an ex-President.

Mark this is an aside, but when Hillary tied Obama to a slumlord, what decent GOP candidate would not have slurred her back by referring to the Lincoln bedroom of Bill's term as a relative bordello? I hate this kind of politics, but maybe Obama should have done it. I can't decide.

January 22, 2008 4:44 PM

jobeek2 said:

A plurality of the white vote seems pretty much out of the question.

There's been seven different polls conducted in the past two weeks that provided crosstabs by race, and in all those seven polls Obama is at 17-22% of the white vote.

That compares to 26-31% of the white vote for Edwards; and 39-50% of the white vote for Hillary.

To reverse that would take something like a miracle. Especially considering that Hillary's support among whites has been trending up this month (whereas it's been trending down among blacks).

January 22, 2008 5:06 PM

BHLnyc said:

Propositionjoe points to a real vulnerability for Hillary in a general election. She wants all the credit for the economic successes of the 1990s, but will also have to answer for the shameless fundraising scandals that tainted the the Clinton White House as well. Much as I wanted Obama to slug her back as hard as possible on this, I'm glad he kept his cool -- and his reputation for civility intact.

January 22, 2008 5:26 PM

virginiacentrist said:

Propjoe:

That would probably crush Obama will female voters.

January 22, 2008 5:29 PM

ironyroad said:

The question that dare not speak its name is how good or bad the chances of a Clinton/Obama ticket might look come Fall.

January 22, 2008 5:34 PM

sprechs said:

Will this be as influential as Hillary's Des Moines Endorsement?

January 22, 2008 5:48 PM

mollysimon said:

Irony:  There is NO chance.  They hate each other.  If you want, I'll wager  you a bet.  Make that a gentleman's bet.  Anyway, if she wins the nomination, she'll have to pair up with a white male.  

January 22, 2008 6:29 PM

sprechs said:

sorry, Des Moines *Register*

January 22, 2008 6:29 PM

primwallflow said:

irony and mollysimon:

If the race gets much more divisive, and Hillary gets the nod, then she may have to give the Veep slot to Obama rather than go into November with a fractured and frustrated base.

January 22, 2008 6:42 PM

dpinkert said:

"Indeed, the Clintons’ joint career in public life seems oriented toward securing victory and personal vindication."  Would it be fair to say that the Clintons are a show about nothing?  Very 90s!

January 22, 2008 7:11 PM

ralphnelle said:

Do the Clintons now have problems with black voters? Look at these numbers:

POLL: PPP (D) SOUTH CAROLINA DEM PRIMARY

A new Public Policy Polling (D) automated survey in South Carolina (conducted 1/21) finds:

580 Likely Democratic Primary Voters (± 4.1%)

44 Obama

28 Clinton

15 Edwards

1 Kucinich

12 Undecided

Among a subsample of African-Americans, Obama leads Clinton 70% to 15%.

January 22, 2008 7:46 PM

primwallflow said:

jobeek2:

You might be right about white voters. The latest SurveyUSA poll results are fascinating, though:

www.surveyusa.com/.../PollReport.aspx

Yes, they show a "white" deficit, but Obama wins among women and Hispanics (!), and KILLS among those who think "terrorism", "education", and, interestingly, "health care" ought to be the president's #1 priority.

I'd love to break the demographics down further and see to what extent all of this might be explained by the predominance of African-Americans in the state.

January 22, 2008 7:48 PM

mollysimon said:

Prim:  You have a point.  But would Barack want to run with these scourges?  I just don't see it--not after what they've done to him.  I myself might back that ticket--but without him, she loses my vote.  Period.1

"1 Kucinich"--who are these people?  I actually kind of admire them.

January 22, 2008 8:25 PM

aeromonas said:

What I want to know is whether following his inevitable defeat in SC, Edwards will stick it out through Super Tuesday.  And if he does follow Fred to the sidelines, which way would his 15% of voters break?  Does anyone know of any polling that sheds some light on the latter question?

January 22, 2008 10:39 PM

primwallflow said:

mollysimon:

Would he accept a VP offer? Good question. I think he would, because it's quite the quid-pro-quo: she would need him to win, and he would need "VP" on his resume to allay the experience fears should he wish to run again in 2016. But you may be right about him refusing, especially if he has a good backup plan in mind, like the Illinois governorship.

January 22, 2008 11:20 PM

Wandreycer1 said:

John Edwards can, in formal parlance - bite me.  He needs to get over himself and drop out, unless he wants to hand the Presidency over to the Republicans just so he has something to do with himself the next several months.

January 23, 2008 7:35 AM

virginiacentrist said:

John Edwards lecturing people about poverty makes me want to throw a brick through the tv.

January 23, 2008 9:27 AM

blackton said:

propjoe, sorry about your passing away. you died gracefully though, no blubbering at all.

January 23, 2008 10:41 AM

butchie b said:

Yeah, VA, I just LOVE the 28,000 square foot house.  My wife the Dem just goes nuts over that one.

This could all change but it looks today like if y'all nominate HRC, you lose, and if you nominate BHO, you win.  I know McCain could beat her, and I suspect even the Mittster stands a chance.

Those 2 will be our only choices soon on this side.

January 23, 2008 11:38 AM

J.J. Gould said:

Damn it, blackie! No more Wire spoilers on the Stump!

January 23, 2008 11:40 AM

blackton said:

jj gould, the episode played down here in Mexico, it didn't play up in the states? I have seen up to episode 7. what week are you up to there?

January 23, 2008 1:50 PM

J.J. Gould said:

blackton -- I'm in week no-HBO / gotta wait for it on DVD. (Season 4 just came out, and into my Netflix queue.)

iNo mas Wire spoilers, hombre!

January 23, 2008 4:32 PM

ironyroad said:

prim and mollysimon:

Yes -- that's the thing.  This could be one of the rare moments when the "idealistic" candidate doesn't just cave in February, get a pat on the head, and slink off to a visiting professorship at UCLA.

The "drag effect" of a Clinton candidacy dissing Obama, and her the nominee of a fractured party, could be one of those nasty half-expected things that'll cost us the White House.

January 23, 2008 4:32 PM

blackton said:

Gould, gotcha. my bad. lo siento. I only thought of it because of propjoes nom de plume.

January 23, 2008 5:19 PM

J.J. Gould said:

blackie -- Greatest show ever.

January 23, 2008 11:59 PM