My only hunch on that is that African-American voters in Illinois probably didn't fully realize until a few weeks before the election- remember, he only got in a few months beforehand and was low-profile- that Alan Keyes is totally batshit insane.    Alternatively, he did make a point of going to black churches, and he is a mezmorizing orator, and that could have made religious blacks like him at first- until, again, everyone realizied he was a complete and total cuckoobannana loon.   So that might explain 2004.

Maybe. But honestly, doesn't Hillary get hte same thing? Women say they'll support Obama (because frankly, they think he's a better candidate) and then, when they get to the polls, they vote out of gender solidarity. It all cancels itself out.

Anyway - there's another factor at play here:

Bill Clinton

Journalists and hard core politicos didn't take his recent attacks on Obama seriously, because we saw them as (1) support for his wife and (2) a bit over the top.

However - when rank and file Democrats across the country hear these types of attacks, they pay more attention. Bill Clinton is a revered figure. If he thinks someone is a phony, then Democrats listen.

The Clintons would be wise to continue using Bill to attack Obama. The press may scoff, but Democratic voters still hold him in incredibly high esteem.

You know, this campaign isn't really about politics anymore. This is becoming psychology and sociology. I suppose this is inevitable when trying to win votes.

Psychology and sociology involve quantitative research.  Every post I've seen since Tuesday about the Bradley effect has been empty speculation.

Wait, wasn't Obama's mother white?  Maybe we need to start talking about the Half-Bradley Effect, where voters claim to support one half of his heritage, while voting against the other half?

"You know, this campaign isn't really about politics anymore. This is becoming psychology and sociology. I suppose this is inevitable when trying to win votes."

Every presidential campaign is.

ejbenjamin said: "Psychology and sociology involve quantitative research.  Every post I've seen since Tuesday about the Bradley effect has been empty speculation."

Well said, thank you.

I hate the term African-American. Does someone whose ancestry is Egyptian or Algerian qualify?

you could try what we PC ofay Manhattainites say: men of color (which is presently the prefered nomenclature, Dude).

r-ennis:  Egyptians or Algerians would, in the main, be loathe to identify themselves as Africans anyway.

Noam, I know you've been covering Obama since 2004 (I first heard of him from your cover piece in TNR when he was running in the primary), but wouldn't his polling results have more to do with the collapse of the Blair Hull and increased focus on the race and less on a "reverse Bradley effect?"  Did his polling numbers start to change well before information about Hull and his wife came out?

I think it's time we start discussing the double-reverse-backflip Bradley effect, clearly the most important factor in the nomination race today.  

It's... uh... gimme a minute... when black people who are actually conservative Republicans claim to support white Democrats in polls early in the cycle so that the media reports that the white Democrats are gaining African American support, leading black Democratic candidates to focus their efforts on minority outreach; then, later in the cycle, the black conservative Republicans claim to now support the black Democratic candidate, giving the candidate much-needed momentum and validating the minority outreach program.  The candidate is thus propelled to the nomination, but then loses to the Republicans in the general election after being demagogued as overly invested in identity politics.

Watch out for this, it could be crucial for understanding the results of South Carolina polls!

You know apfrankel, I think what you wrote is a joke,  but it makes some kind of sick sense.  

I don't like "African American" for that very reason, r-ennis, but mostly because  it's too long, and then when people try to shorten it to AA I have been genuinely confused, thinking "Why do people assume Bush didn't get the Alcholic's Anonymous vote when he's a dry drunk?" among other things. I really am fooled almost every time. Plus, if "black" is ok with James Brown it's ok with me.

Sprechs, thank you for bringing up the details of the Obama 2004 race -- I'd add that after Blair Hull imploded, Obama was greatly helped by the endorsement of the late Paul Simon's daughter.  In the midst of the George Ryan and endless Chicago corruption scandals this was even more powerful (and Obama's closest challenger was a pure party hack/son of a Machine pol).  

Later on the GOP side you had Jack Ryan's divorce from Jerri Ryan lead to his withdrawl-- it wasn't race that was at play in the 2004 Illinois senate race, it was sex!

I certainly considered Bill Clinton to be a revered figure until this recent campaign cycle. Part of it could be the fact that I spent the bulk of my teenage years in the 90s, and my political mindset was sharpened during those periods (though I leaned liberal even in grade school.) His attacks on Obama (and the style of his attacks) have greatly decreased my esteem for him, though, and I imagine I will come out of this election with a much different perspective on him then I had originally.

Mark Blumenthal picks up on something interesting from the South Carolina polls: [Obama] leads Clinton

Mark Blumenthal picks up on something interesting in the South Carolina polls: [Obama] leads Clinton

The Pew Research Center has an interesting piece up on the "Reverse Bradley Effect" I've