Wait -- does that follow?  Couldn't it be that there are just a whole lot of people for Obama in that category, so that even if they vote at the same rate as in previous caucuses, they will make up a large portion of the total?

liebig: Except that in the 2004 caucus, Democrats made up 79% of caucus-goers (and "Strong" Democrats made up 64% of caucus-goers), Independents 19%, and Republicans 1%, whereas the DMR poll assumes a turnout that ends up being 50% Democratic, 40% Independent, and 5% GOP. That would appear at first to require a pretty dramatic shift in the caucus population from 2004 to 2008.

However, the DMR assumptions may be valid if the dynamics of party ID have changed since 2004. That year, when CNN categorized Democratic caucus-goers by ideology rather than by party, self-described liberals made up 56% of the turnout, moderates 37%, and conservatives 6%, proportions closer to the party assumptions the DMR poll just made. if you equate "moderates" with "independents" and "conservatives" with "Republicans". So if previously-moderate and conservative Democrats have defected from the formal party label in the last four years, but still plan on caucusing with the Democrats, then the DMR assumptions are defensible.

Anyway, here's my source so you can do your own number crunching:

www.cnn.com/.../IA

Yes -- I'm with you that it would show a big shift in the composition of the caucus-goers -- just not that it necessarily assumes a higher turnout rate among first-timers than in the past.  

But really it's late and I find the whole thing confusing.  Noam suggests that the results are premised on the idea that groups that disproportionately favor Obama are much more likely to turn out than they have in the past.  Those groups are younger people, independents, and people who haven't caucused before.  But it may just be that there are far more people in those categories this year saying that they will participate -- so even if they turn out at the same old relatively low rate, they'll make a bigger dent.  In other words, it may just be that the denominator is bigger, not the numerator?

But again, it's late and I'm sleepy.  Any way you slice it, though, it represents a big change of some kind, if it's accurate.

No, I'm wrong.  (The effects of New Year's Eve are beginning to wear off.)  

But: given that turnout is traditionally about 6% of eligible citizens, the number of people who are potential first-time-caucusers must be huge.  Even a tiny increase in the turnout rate among that group would be enough to make a big change in the composition of the caucuses.  The same is probably true to some degree of independents and younger people -- both of those groups are probably large compared to the actual number of people who caucus.  So maybe the Register poll results don't depend on a dramatically different turnout rate for any given demographic group?

New Iowa Poll: Obama widens lead over Clinton -- Des Moines Register poll

www.desmoinesregister.com/.../article

Obama -- 32%

Clinton -- 25%

Edwards -- 24%

As everyone who knows Iowa politics understands, the Des Moines register poll is the most important, the one that people actually pay attention to, in Iowa and elsewhere.

The establishment has been quietly pushing enormous money and resources into Iowa over the last week and a half in the hopes of changing the verdict of the Iowa people, apparently it's not working.  The establishment desperately needs a Clinton or Edwards win, and are desperately afraid of an Obama win, hence all the under the table money, and cheap dirty political tactics they've been exercising in support of their candidates, the candidates they know they can count on, the candidates who are vetted and tested the candidates who can be counted upon to put the concerns of the special-interest groups first, those who believe they really control this country.  Well, in just a couple of days the people of Iowa are going to make their choice, and we'll see how miserably their tactics have failed.  We're going to find out the kind of world the people of Iowa want to live in, a world of fear and division, or a world of unity and hope.

I predicted this is going to be the largest caucus turnout in Iowa history, and with the independent and Republican crossover vote, Obama is going to squash the establishment candidates, what were their names again, I've almost forgotten as they begin to fade into the pages of obscure history already.  :-)  Obama will go into New Hampshire and South Carolina with irresistible momentum, and God willing this country will find itself in the hands of its people once again, where it rightly belongs.

I'd like to send out a big thank you to George W. Bush, because without your contribution, without you and those in your administration, who set about dismantling the Republic, America would still be asleep.  Well we're awake now, and we're going to begin speaking loud and clear.  Thank you George, the people need a dose of imperialist dictatorship to make them realize what we had to lose.

Obama 08, America wins!  

RE: the self-fulfilling prophecy.  I have to agree, and I think that more than the DMR poll, early wins will bring a huge number of people into the Obama camp - people who like him, but think that he can't get the nomination.  Maybe more than any candidate ever, people are hesitating in giving him their support because of this, and they'll start flocking if he does well early.  Anyway, that's my unscientific read.

Candidate assessments -- Des Moines Register poll

----------------------------------------------

Best able to bring about change.

Obama -- 33%

Clinton -- 26%

Edwards -- 19%

=========================

Would have the most success as president in unifying the country.

Obama -- 36%

Clinton -- 23%

Edwards -- 20%

===========================

Has the most experience and competence to lead.

Clinton -- 35%

Obama -- 21%

Edwards -- 19%

===========================

Matches my own core principles.

Obama -- 28%

Edwards -- 25%

Clinton -- 21%

===========================

Best able to win the presidential election.

Clinton -- 31%

Obama -- 28%

Edwards -- 21%

--------------------------

I wonder how they get journalists, like those on CNN, to keep making statements to the effect that immigration is a huge issue, and will be a huge issue in the coming elections.

When you take a look at this poll, only 3% of Iowans ranked immigration as their top concern in their choice for presidential candidate.

And I've heard almost no mention of the Iraq war as a campaign issue over the last month, yet it's the number one concern of most Iowans according to this poll at 28%.

I guess what I wonder most is how do those at CNN corporate convince their news anchors to repeat what is quite obviously misinformation.  Don't these journalists want to see a mountain of evidence that supports the assertions that they're reading off the teletype in front of them, or those that so-called experts are quoting as I just saw recently?

Here's some good advice for all Americans, don't trust the national media, because they often don't have the evidence to back up their claims.

--------------------------

Likely Democratic caucus goers most important issues.

Lord Iraq -- 28%

Healthcare -- 22%

Economy -- 20%

Immigration -- 3%

--------------------------------------

Interesting that Iowans who support of Obama appear to be better educated and have higher incomes than those who support Hillary Clinton or John Edwards, according to this poll.

Sources of support among likely caucus goers

College degree

Obama -- 39%

Clinton -- 20%

Edwards -- 22%

---------------------------------------

$50,000 to 69,999 yearly income

Obama -- 39%

Clinton -- 22%

Edwards -- 23%

Disapointing for Johnboy but at least Obama's going to win it.

(Is anyone else feeling that? Jesus, never again. I'm suffering, big time today. That's it I'm out, no more booze, no more social cigs, no more...just fruit juice, cold showers and TNR for 08.)

UNEXPECTED RESULTS FROM THE DMR....It seemed as if the political/media world had finally settled on a narrative for the Iowa caucuses -- Hillary Clinton had a reasonably solid lead, John Edwards had the big mo and was in position to...

I have spoken to the real Democratic people in a New Year's Eve party.

All were for Edwards except for one young man. He was an Obamist.

We were right from the primary to the congressional election in believing John Hall, in 2006.

Edwards is the closest to John Hall.

The election can be decided on a combination of honesty and intelligence.

Obama is a robot, intelligent to get god college grades, less hopeful to succeed in the real life.

If there's one thing the S4200 model robot knows, it's robots! I trust the s4200.

Obama a robot?  The man seems to be many things, but would wonderful, righteous, real Michelle marry a robot?  Not likely.  Not that one.

You all are some serious number crunchers here for New Year's day. Ya'll need to go eat some eggs and stare into space like normal, non TNR people are doing today (I'm trying not to type too loudly, I don't want my New Year's day headache to hear me.  I'm with you Iggy, its bean sprouts and water until the election).

As long as everyone (including me ) is bashing Mark Penn, it's worth pointing out one thing he may