It's Obama 32 Clinton 25 Edwards 24 among likely caucus goers. That's a four-point bump for Obama since the last poll, with Hillary and Edwards steady. (Biden and Richardson have slipped slightly.)
On the GOP side Huckabee holds on to an impressive 32-26 lead over Romney. McCain's at 13 and Fred Thompson is now tied with Ron Paul at 9.
This totally shatters the CW of the political crowd here in Des Moines, which had been convinced that Edwards was on fire and really might win, and that Huck was totally imploding. (Although the polling stopped yesterday, before today's Huck presser fiasco.) It also reaffirms my instinct that Fred Thompson isn't booking a flight to New Hampshire.
Update: The Edwards camp is already spinning the numbers--which, as Ben Smith notes, swing a wrecking ball through their "surge" storyline--not unreasonably questioning the accuracy of polling over a holiday weekend, and noting that many respondents remain uncertain of their vote.
In a post over the weekend I cited a campaign operative who worried polling around the holidays would be wacky. But he predicted that variable would undercount traveling young people, doing damage to Obama. If you believe his theory, Obama may be even stronger than this poll shows. But that's a little hard to believe.
--Michael Crowley