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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
11.12.2007
How Ron Paul Can Ruin Fred Thompson

There's been a lot of buzz over Des Moines Register columnist David Yepsen's crusade against the possibility of campaigns organizing non-Iowa resident college students to caucus. Most of the talk has been about whether Obama will pull in loads of Illinois college kids. But Yepsen offers another scenario, too:

On the Republican side, GOP officials are watching precincts in Council Bluffs and Davenport to make certain people aren't driving across the state line to participate. They are particularly concerned about Ron Paul's over-caffeinated backers.

This will be fun to watch--not because Paul has a real shot at winning Iowa (he doesn't), but because of the pain he can inflict on other candidates. For instance: Right now Fred Thompson currently has a good shot at placing third in Iowa. Rudy Giuliani and John McCain aren't campaigning hard there, while Fred is now throwing everything he's got into the state--to the exclusion of New Hampshire) between now and the caucuses.

A decent third-place showing probably keeps Fred alive and kicking into New Hampshire--especially if Romney loses badly to Huckabee, rebooting the GOP race and giving everyone new hope. But if Thompson loses to Ron Paul? Then consider Fred dead. 

--Michael Crowley

Posted: Tuesday, December 11, 2007 1:01 PM with 3 comment(s)

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virginiacentrist said:

totally off subject...but Obama just surged +6 in Iowa, +10 in NH on Intrade...

One can assume that a favorable poll is coming out...

RE: your post

This is a tricky issue for Obama. On one hand, it's not good to anger Iowans. On the other hand, if his campaign can effectively push back against this issue, then it will make it look like Hillary/others are trying to disenfranchise voters...which, if I remember correctly, is a big issue amongst far-lefty nuts.

December 11, 2007 1:31 PM

The Plank said:

Yesterday, Mike mused about whether a last-minute Ron Paul surge in Iowa, perhaps fueled by out-of-staters

December 12, 2007 11:46 AM

The Stump said:

The main event in today's GOP debate will of course be the interplay between Mike Huckabee and Mitt

December 12, 2007 12:27 PM