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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
04.12.2007
Huckabee Should Skip New Hampshire

The new AP/Pew poll breakdown has me thinking about Mike Huckabee's strategy. Pew says white evangelical Protestants make up 38 percent Iowa of the Iowa Republican primary electorate--clearly why the good minister is soaring there. But that white evangelical contingent drops by more than half, to 18 percent, in New Hampshire. Meaning Huckabee's post-Iowa balloon might rapidly deflate in the Granite State.

But then on Jan. 19 comes South Carolina--a motherlode of white evangelicals, who make up a whopping 53 percent of the likely GOP electorate. Sure, Huckabee is now at just 10 percent in SC, according to the poll. But Pew notes that voters there still aren't terribly engaged. Let's see what happens if those southern evangelicals learn that a southern evangelical has won a stunner in Iowa.

So here's an idea: Why doesn't Huckabee bypass New Hampshire altogether? Heck, it's Mitt Romney's backyard, after all. Everyone knows a Boston media market which stretches well into southern New Hampshire gives any Massachusetts candidate a totally unfair advantage there. (This is a point which, to Romney's incredible good fortune, no one ever seems to make. Huckabee can change that.) Why shouldn't Huck come straight from his Iowa success, declare New Hampshire to be rigged, and then intensely concentrate his shoestring operation on a state where he might blow everyone away?

--Michael Crowley 

Posted: Tuesday, December 04, 2007 1:55 PM with 2 comment(s)

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virginiacentrist said:

Mike -

That's an interesting idea. If his campaign thinks they will perform poorly in NH regardless of an Iowa bounce, then they might want to severely downplay expectations.

My own opinion - Desperate candidates (and in a sense, Huckabee is desperate, as he has very little money) should front load as much as possible. If you don't have any money, then you need free media. The best way to get free media is to win a primary or caucus. You can't get it by losing, beating expectations, or not participating.

GOP support is very soft. All it took was about 2 weeks of positive mention and Huckabee is now in 2nd place nationwide (latest Gallup poll). No one is tightly attached to any candidate at this point. Romney bought poll numbers in New Hampshire with tons of media presense...that support is probably also very soft. No reason why Huckabee can't win NH after Iowa...

December 4, 2007 4:10 PM

cspencef said:

Shh, not so loud, Huckabee might hear you...

December 4, 2007 4:14 PM